Our resident tipster has his eye on a couple of Newmarket runners, including a value 14/1 shot.
They’re racing on the July Course at Newmarket this evening and a couple of runners in particular look to have solid claims at decent odds.
First up is the Martin Meade-trained EDIFICATION in the opening 7f nursery handicap (5.45pm). The son of Oasis Dream has had four starts this season – all over 6f – and his best effort came here in Junbe when finishing second to Elronaq, who went on to be placed in a Group 2 at the July meeting, with the likes of Nemoralia, who franked the form further when scoring impressively at Kempton on Wednesday, in behind.
Prior to that, he’d finished fourth in a decent maiden at Goodwood, despite being badly drawn in stall one and going right at the start, and showed good speed in first-time blinkers at Haydock last time, before fading into fifth. As a half-brother to three winners over 1m2f-1m3f, he’s entitled to improve for today’s step up in trip and is making his handicap debut off what is a potentially generous mark of just 75.
His trainer, who operates out of a Newmarket with a small string, is having a good season with 11 winners on the board from 61 runners (18%) and his record at HQ is eye-catching, with four of his 12 runners (33%) over the past five seasons ending up in the winners’ circle. If you’d backed them all you’d be sitting on a tasty £1 level-stakes profit of £68.00, so don’t let a big price put you off the selection.
Bookmakers much prefer the chances of Mark Johnston’s Goodwood runner-up Montsarrat. That horse can be considered an unlucky loser as he didn’t enjoy the best of runs on the Sussex Downs and he looks a worthy favourite at around the even money mark. However, he’s now 8lb higher on his third start in just 16 days and has no previous experience of Newmarket, whereas the selection, who is in receipt of 5lb, is proven here. At 14/1, he’s the value bet of the pair.
Richard Fahey is another trainer to follow at Newmarket and particularly on the July Course, with his 104 runners since 2012 yielding 20 winners for a £1 level-stakes profit of £53.38. His three runners here last Saturday produced 16/1 nursery winner Holy Grail and 20/1 runner-up Farlow, so his sole runner this evening, STEVE PRESCOTT, who carries bottom weight in the closing 6f handicap (8.25pm), is entitled to plenty of respect on his stable record alone.
A quick check on his form reveals he’s got a serious chance on his second to Captain Colby over track and trip in May off a 1lb lower mark, and he’s continued to run well since, including when seventh (of 17) behind subsequent Stewards’ Cup winner Magical Memory at the July meeting. His best form has all come on fast ground so it was to his credit he ran a close fifth on soft here last time, and he will relish faster conditions this evening. All of which makes him hard to resist at 11/2.