Bill Speros for Bookies.com

By Bill Speros | | 4 mins

Aaron Rodgers MVP Odds: QB Among Favorites Amid Uncertainty

Aaron Rodgers MVP Odds: QB Among Favorites Amid Uncertainty

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No one knows for sure if or where quarterback Aaron Rodgers will take his first snap for the 2021 NFL season.

Perhaps not even Rodgers himself.

Still, Rodgers he remains among the top choices across NFL betting markets for MVP as the Green Bay Packers start their mandatory minicamp Tuesday.

It’s likely Rodgers won’t be in attendance when minicamp begins. Rodgers and Packers management have been at loggerheads since Green Bay chose QB Jordan Love in the 2020 NFL draft. Rodgers won NFL MVP honors last season and took the Packers to the NFC championship game.

Rodgers missed optional OTAs for the first time in his career earlier this spring. He faces up to $93,085 in fines if he does not attend minicamp this week. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports the Packers could issue Rodgers an excused absence. That would negate the fines and be considered a negotiating ploy to help soothe the ill will that exists on Rodgers’ side.

Here are the current leading NFL futures 2021 MVP odds available at DraftKings sportsbook:

Player Odds Team
Patrick Mahomes+450Chiefs
Aaron Rodgers+900Packers/TBA
Josh Allen+1100Bills
Tom Brady+1400Bucs
Lamar Jackson+1600Ravens
Matthew Stafford+1600Rams
Russell Wilson+1600Rams
Dak Prescott+1700Cowboys
Justin Herbet+2000Chargers

All NFL MVP odds are current as of publication.

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That Rodgers remains among the top choices in 2021 NFL MVP markets despite his public pronouncements and his seeming intransigence toward Packers management is a tell that sports betting sites believe he and the Packers will come to some sort of an accord. Or at worst, Rodgers will end up on a team where he can both contend and produce MVP-like numbers. There does not appear to be much of a consensus that Rodgers will choose not to play in the fall.

This scenario counters a belief, reported by NBC Sports' Peter King, that Rodgers "is solid on never playing for the Packers again." Another possible solution to the dilemma facing Rodgers and the Packers, according to King, would be a trade after the 2021 season. This would presumably allow Green Bay to contend for another NFC North title and put Rodgers on track for another MVP run – before he chooses his next team in 2022.

Denver Favorite Landing Spot For Rodgers Outside Green Bay

The Denver Broncos (+150) were the top team outside of Green Bay (-180) have Rodgers as their starting QB, according to odds from PointsBet sportsbook in Colorado. That market is no longer open. Right now, the closest thing you can find is +220 on “Any Other” for Denver’s starting QB in Week 1 at FanDuel sportsbook. The other picks to be Broncos’ QB this upcoming season are Drew Lock +145, Teddy Bridgewater +145 and Brett Rypien +1600.

Aaron Rodgers MVP Odds: QB Among Favorites Amid Uncertainty 1

While Rodgers remains defiant in his scant media appearances, his options for 2021 remain even more limited. He can either play for Green Bay, hope for a trade or sit out the season. If Rodgers chooses not to play this year, he will have to return $11.5 million in bonus money for the 2021 season.

If he opts out of playing in 2022, he’ll be out another $11.5 million in bonus cash. The Packers could also choose to try and reclaim $6.8 million in bonus money already paid to Rodgers for the 2021 season. He’s already forfeited a $500,000 workout bonus by not participating in Green Bay’s official offseason training regimen.

The Packers reportedly offered Rodgers a deal in May that would have made him the highest-paid QB the NFL. He was not interested. Rodgers is due a base salary of $14.7 million in 2021. A trade of Rodgers by Green Bay would leave the team with $21.2 million dead-cap hit.


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If Rodgers does play in 2021, he will be pressed to match his 2020 performance. Last year, Rodgers improved seemingly each week. He finished the regular season with a 121.5 QB rating for the 13-3 Rodgers, while completing 70.7% of his passes for 4,299 yards and 48 TDs. He won the MVP award for the third time in a rout, getting 44 of the 50 votes cast.

Key Dates Ahead For Rodgers

Rodgers’ next key date with the Packers after this week will be July 27, when veterans are mandated to report to training camp. The only certain appointment on Rodgers’ calendar for the summer is July 6.

That day, Rodgers will be playing alongside Bryson DeChambeau against Phil Mickelson and Tom Brady in The Match: Champions for Charity golf match in Montana.