Our racing expert runs the rule over the bookies.com sponsored card at Carlisle.
We’re proudly sponsoring all seven races at Carlisle this afternoon and I’ve run the rule over them all here in the hope of putting you onto a winner or two – our mantra at bookies.com.
14:00 Get Carlisle Tips At bookies.com Handicap, 5f193y
It often pays to follow a sprinter in form and CHAPLIN BAY looks the pick of the two last-time-out winners in the field, with the other, Raizin’ Hell, seemingly better on the Fibresand at Southwell. The selection is carrying a 7lb penalty for last week’s success at Hamilton but he absolutely bolted up by four and a half lengths on similar ground to today’s and a repeat performance may well be good enough here at bet365’s 5/2.
Circuitous is one of four runners to have scored over track and trip previously, albeit back in 2013 in his case, and he is worth a check in the market on his first run for 220 days as he’s undoubtedly on a good mark and his stable is in form. Veteran sprinter Ancient Cross should again run his race, though he’s had plenty of chances from similar marks and he last won in 2013.
14:30 Compare Best Odds At bookies.com EBF Novice Stakes, 5f
The market should prove an informative guide and especially over the newcomers. Money for either the David Barron-trained Hotfill, a £46,000 son of Showcasing, or Richard Fahey’s Vatican Hill would be significant with both holding entries in valuable sales races later in the season.
However, it could pay to side with one one of the three runners with racecourse experience under their belt and the clear pick of that trio is Mark Johnston’s filly HOPE AGAINST HOPE, who went off at just 4/1 for a 6f Newmarket maiden eight days ago, suggesting she’d been showing plenty at home. She finished a well beaten eighth in the end but was pressing the leaders just over 1f out before being badly hampered and snatched inside the final furlong, and the drop back to the minimum trip should therefore help. Her stable is 6-30 (20%) with juvenile runners here for a £1 level-stakes profit of £10.08 and she can boost that profit further at Betfair’s 5/4.
15:05 Free Horse Racing Bets At bookies.com Handicap, 5f
James Given has a 3-13 (23%) record at the track so his top weight Oriental Relation is entitled to respect, though the five-year-old remains winless in 15 start on grass. Windforpower has been knocking on the door in more competitive sprint handicaps of late and it will likely open sooner rather than later given he’s racing off an 8lb lower mark than his last winning one. He was staying on all too late at Beverley last time and this stiffer 5f should suit.
However, he lacks the scope of ANIERES BOY and Mick Easterby’s lightly-raced charge really caught the eye when finishing third on his reappearance at Thirsk 13 days ago, albeit over an extra furlong. Soon in front, his jockey Graham Gibbons was able to come across from his disadvantageous stands’ side draw and, after being headed 2f out, he remained close up before losing second place close home. He should be a lot sharper for that run and could take some catching if Gibbons employs similar tactics this afternoon. Take bet365’s 5/2.
15:40 Euro 2016 Expert Tips At bookies.com Maiden Fillies’ Stakes, 7f173y
Beatles fans will be all over Roger Varian’s Penny Lane Forever and she looks sure to give a good account after stepping up considerably on her debut effort when fifth at Haydock last time, despite not having the best of passages through the race. The third Golden Glimmer has won since to give the form a solid look and she has a fitness advantage over her two main market rivals, Prying Pandora and WHOLESOME,
The latter filly, though, boasts the best form having finished a close up second behind the well regarded First Victory in a Newmarket maiden last backend, with a Sir Michael Stoute-trained favourite in third and subsequent Lingfield Oaks Trial winner Seventh Heaven a place further back. If she can run close to that sort of form here – the market will be a guide to her fitness levels – she will be home and hosed, albeit at odds-on (4/5 best with Betfred).
16:10 Play Million Pound Goal At bookies.com Fillies’ Handicap, 7f173y
A tricky handicap to assess with several holding chances, but Hampshire-based Ralph Beckett is a rare visitor to the track with just a couple of runners since 2012, and one of those obliged. So the fact he has chosen this race for the handicap debut of his DESERT HAZE could be a hint worth taking. She’s pretty much the form pick too on her close up third in a fair Windsor maiden behind a couple of promising sorts on last month’s reappearance. Sure to be sharper for that run and off what looks a workable initial mark of 73, she may well prove good enough to justify 9/4 favouritism with bet365.
Al Shahaniya won her first two starts last season before finding Class 2 handicap company a little too hot to handle on her final start at Newmarket. She could go well now dropped in grade if fit enough on her return to action, while Ghinia hinted at another successful season ahead when finishing runner-up in her reappearance, though whether she can give 18lb and a beating to the selection remains to be seen.
16:45 Euro 2016 Free Bets At bookies.com Handicap, 6f195y
Again it’s hard to rule out any of the runners with total confidence, but we should get a good run for our money from GOLD FLASH. Keith Dalgleish’s charge will find this easier than the competitive 6f Doncaster handicap he ran in last time and his previous efforts give him a leading form chance. After showing very little in five starts last season, he started 2016 on a good mark and almost took immediate advantage, going down by just half a length to the reopposing Surewecan on his reappearance. He enjoys a 3lb pull with that rival here and can come out best on this occasion to hopefully land us a nice 10/1 (Coral) payout.
Tellovoi looks a danger under a 6lb penalty for his Musselburgh success 11 days ago, when making all. However, he can be hit or miss at the gates – he has missed the break on his two previous starts to his cost – and that makes him a risky proposition.
17:15 FA Cup Final Betting Tips At bookies.com Handicap, 7f173y
The Mark Johnston-trained Ordinal is chasing a hat-trick after a couple of wins on the all-weather and is sure to be popular with punters. However, he’s up another 6lb after dead-heating last time and with no guarantee that he will transfer that form to turf (well beaten on his two efforts to date), I’m not exactly rushing to back him at a best-priced 5/4.
It’s a bad race and he may still win of course, but FIDRA BAY (11/2 bet365) has gone close the last twice in similar handicaps at Redcar and Thirsk off today’s mark and another step forward – a real possibility given that he’s had just five career starts – might just see him get off the mark for his in-form stable. Small stakes, mind, and I do hope this race doesn’t prove to be a ‘getting out stakes.’
Good luck with your Carlisle bets!
2.00 Chaplin Bay @ 5/2 BetVictor
2.30 Hope Against Hope @ 7/4 Betfair
3.05 Anieres Boy (NAP) @ 5/2 bet365
3.40 Wholesome @ 5/6 Betfred
4.10 Desert Haze (NB) @ 5/2 bet365
4.45 Gold Flash @ 10/1 Coral
5.15 Fidra Bay @ 11/2 bet365