The Betfred Cesarewitch comes under the scrutiny of our resident tipster.
Saturday’s Betfred Cesarewitch has attracted a maximum field of 34 and, if you’re thinking of having a bet, some betting advice is going to come in handy – we might even put you on the winner?!
The David Pipe-trained Low Key propelled himself to the head of the market when winning the Cesarewitch Trial at Newmarket in convincing fashion last time and he’s now clear favourite with bookmakers. The eight-year-old looks nicely treated under a 4lb penalty for that success and he will again be ridden by Tom Marquand, who will claim 3lb off him. With his stamina now proven he looks sure to go well, though the recent run of big-priced winners – 66/1 (twice), 25/1 and 16/1 in the last six runnings – might dissuade some punters from taking a single-figure price.
Any clear trends to emerge?
Time and time again it is the stronger stayers who come to the fore and it should come as no surprise to learn that half the winners this millennium have been trained by trainers more known for their jumpers. The likes of Nicky Henderson and Phillip Hobbs have proved particularly adept at switching their horses back from hurdles, winning this race twice since 2000, and another dual purpose trainer in Tony Martin sent out Leg Spinner to score in 2007. The latter will saddle a couple on Saturday; the well-backed Heartbreak City, a winner at York’s Ebor meeting off 9lb lower, and last year’s third Quick Jack.
David Pipe has yet to taste success, but he went close with Mamlook in 2009 and his father Martin won it twice – he will be keen to emulate that feat in time and in Low Key he has the ideal type to get the ball rolling. Other jumps trainers with fancied runners are Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott, who are represented by Renneti and Bayan respectively.
Any decent outsiders?
Recent results suggest you shouldn’t let a big price put you off and (at a push) you could probably make a case for the entire field – it is a handicap after all! Of those at bigger odds – 25/1 and above – Sir Mark Prescott’s Moscato makes plenty of appeal having added another handicap over 2m at Ascot in May to the four he won last term, and he would have needed the run behind Low Key last time. He makes more appeal than his stablemate William Of Orange, who is half his odds. The Lucy Wadham-trained Noble Silk ran badly in this race 12 months ago, but he’s had a much lighter campaign this time round and ran well as he ever has at Doncaster last time.
Does the draw matter?
Bizarre as it sounds for a 2m2f handicap, the draw has been a crucial factor and this is due to the configuration of the course – those drawn high have further to travel. Never Can Tell broke from stall 36 to win four years ago, but the evidence from the last two decades suggests you want a horse drawn no higher than 12, ideally.
Best bookmaker offers?
If you’re betting in a 34-runner handicap like this one you need to get as much on your side as you can and five places for each-way bets is a must. Some bookies are shamefully only offering four places – we won’t mention them here – and they should be avoided like the plague. The Stoke-based bet365 are one of the firms offering five places and they will also give you a free bet if you happen to be lucky enough to land on the winner, thanks to their ‘Channel 4/1′ offer.
Give us the winner then?
Some of you may already be sitting pretty having followed my advice to back LOW KEY at 33/1 before he won the recent trial. I fancy him even more now, though his price has contracted to 8/1 (Paddy Power) and his draw in stall 20 is a slight worry.
If you’re not already on – or are and are looking for an each-way alternative – the suggestion is NOBLE SILK, who showed he had the requisite stamina for his when finishing fourth in the 2m4f Ascot Stakes. He’s drawn better in stall 13, has the services of the talented Oisin Murphy and is a value 33/1 with the race sponsors Betfred, who are offering five places.