AFC Championship Bills vs Chiefs Odds, Tips & Top Prop Bets
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We don’t always get the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds matched up against one another in an NFL Conference Championship game – it has happened 11 out of a possible 20 times in the past 10 years including this season – but that's precisely what we will see in the AFC on Sunday. Coming off two impressive playoff victories, the Buffalo Bills will travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs on Sunday night.
There is a bit of a cloud hanging over this game because Patrick Mahomes' status is in question after he suffered a concussion in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. But NFL betting oddsmakers appear to be convinced that the star Kansas City quarterback will be on the field this week.
With that in mind, here is our betting preview for this heavyweight matchup in the AFC.
Bills vs Chiefs Spread Betting
The Chiefs opened as three-point favorites over the Bills and that is significant given Kansas City’s lackluster record against the spread. The defending Super Bowl champs have failed to cover the spread in nine straight games. They have won 11 of their past 12 games, but the last Chiefs win by more than six points came Nov. 1 against the New York Jets. The Chiefs keep finding ways to win, but they aren’t dominating opponents the way many have anticipated.
Meanwhile, Buffalo has covered in nine of its past 10 games and has won eight straight games. So recent trends suggest that you take the Bills and the points. But the Chiefs have only been a field goal favorite (or less) once this season. If they win this game, they should be able to do so by more than a field goal. Given how small the spread is here, we locked in Kansas City to cover at -3.
Bills vs Chiefs Moneyline Betting
As you can see by their overall records and seeding, these are two of the NFL's hottest teams. Buffalo has not lost since the "Hail Murray" game in Arizona against the Cardinals. If it weren't for that incredible last-second touchdown catch by DeAndre Hopkins, the Bills would have won their past 12 games. While that's impressive, the Chiefs are 23-1 in their previous 24 games with Mahomes as their starting quarterback. Their only loss was a Week 5 defeat against the Raiders in which the Chiefs allowed 40 points.
Kansas City is a -148 favorite to win this game and it’s hard to pick against them, even if Mahomes doesn’t finish the entire game. As we saw last week against the Browns, Chad Henne (along with excellent play calls from head coach Andy Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy) led the Chiefs to seal that game. Kansas City is also so good at home, making it even harder to pick against the champs. Expect this game to be close but for the No. 1 seed in the AFC to ultimately win and go on to their second straight Super Bowl. Locked in the Chiefs at -148.
Bills vs Chiefs Over/Under Betting
The total is set at 53.5 points and that isn't too surprising given how explosive both offenses have been this season. Both teams finished inside the top five in scoring offense in the regular season. In fact, all four teams remaining in the playoffs each were top-5 scoring offenses, all averaging mor than 29 points per game.
Both defenses have stepped up in the playoffs but this game projects as a high-scoring, back-and-forth contest. Look for the scoring to start slowly, but to pick up significantly in the second half. We like the over at 53 points.
Bills vs Chiefs 5 Best Prop Bets To Back
|Highest Scoring Quarter: 3rd quarter||+425|
Bet it at BetMGM
|Chiefs to win by 7-12||+480|
Bet it at Unibet
|Chiefs over 3.5 touchdowns||+107|
Bet it at DraftKings
|Bills QB Josh Allen over 302.5 passing yards||-112|
Bet it at FanDuel
|Chiefs TE Travis Kelce & Bills WR Stefon Diggs to score TDs||+333|
Bet it at FOX Bet
NFL odds listed are current as of publication and subject to change.
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Highest Scoring Quarter: 3rd quarter (+425)
Chiefs coach Andy Reid and Bills OC Brian Daboll are two of the best offensive minds in the NFL at adjusting their game plan after halftime. Look for the scoring to start slowly but to pick up in the second half. Take the third quarter to be the highest-scoring quarter of the game at BetMGM.
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Chiefs to win by 7-12 (+480)
If you like the Chiefs to win, take them to win by a touchdown (or slightly more) on Sunday. Kansas City’s defense likely will ensure this game doesn’t get out of hand, but the Chiefs are just too good on offense to lose this game. Take the Chiefs to win by 7-12 points at Unibet.
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Chiefs over 3.5 touchdowns (+107)
Another fun way to bet on this game is to project the number of touchdowns scored by each team. We like the Chiefs to score four or more touchdowns as Patrick Mahomes should be able to pick apart this defense. Take the Chiefs over 3.5 touchdowns at DraftKings.
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Bills QB Josh Allen over 300 passing yards (-112)
In the Divisional Round of the playoffs against the Ravens, Josh Allen threw for just 206 yards on 37 attempts. But that game was in a wind storm in Buffalo against one of the league’s top defenses. Against a much lesser defense and in better conditions, look for Allen to have a big day as he should throw upwards of 40 times. Take the over 300 passing yards for Josh Allen at FanDuel.
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Chiefs TE Travis Kelce & Bills WR Stefon Diggs to score TDs (+333)
The two best passing options in this game are Kelce and Diggs and that is no shot at Tyreek Hill. Even in a game filled with receiving weapons, Kelce and Diggs should find the end zone. Diggs has scored a touchdown in three straight playoff games and Kelce has scored six touchdowns in his past five playoff games. Take Kelce and Diggs to both find the end zone at FOX Bet.
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