The last time Ohio State hoisted the national championship trophy, they had to go through Alabama to do it. Down 21-6 to the Crimson Tide in a national semifinal in the Sugar Bowl, the Buckeyes rallied behind Ezekiel Elliott to win 42-35 and reach the 2015 College Football Playoff title game, where they blew out Oregon to claim the crown.

Ohio State was a 7.5-point underdog that night in New Orleans, same as the opening line for their rematch in Monday night’s 2021 College Football Playoff final in Miami. And after watching quarterback Justin Fields and the Buckeyes completely dismantle 7-point favorite Clemson in last week’s semifinal, it’s natural to wonder if we’re in for another Ohio State-Alabama game as close as the one we witnessed six years ago.

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Alabama vs Ohio State CFP National Championship Odds To Back

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Alabama vs Ohio State Spread Pick

Let’s be honest: Nobody foresaw the kind of performance Ohio State put on against Clemson. Fields hadn’t been that precise all season, the Tigers looked totally unprepared defensively and Dabo Swinney showed his inability to make the right decisions with his team trailing.

So, it would be natural to chalk that up as one perfect night, especially given how the Buckeyes looked against Northwestern and Indiana. But Ohio State’s backs, receivers and tight ends are a step above Notre Dame’s in their ability to separate, making them a much tougher matchup for the Tide.

Will Fields still be feeling the effects of his rib injury? Almost certainly. But the Buckeyes have far more weapons to cover than the Irish, look reinvigorated on defense and are playing with a chip the size of Ohio Stadium. It doesn’t hurt that Alabama has failed to cover in two straight. We’ve got Ohio State at +8 with William Hill.

Alabama vs Ohio State Moneyline Pick

Of course, Alabama failed to cover the 18.5-point line against Notre Dame thanks to an Irish touchdown with 56 seconds left. The Crimson Tide seemed to toy with Notre Dame, never really blowing them out and yet never really letting them back in the game, either. It all leads you believe that Alabama was playing just well enough to win comfortably, holding back an extra gear for the national championship game.

Alabama operated in an immense amount of space, with Notre Dame’s corners and receivers unable to keep up. Ohio State presents a far more formidable matchup, particularly if Fields and his receivers play as well as they did against Clemson. But Alabama has been so head-and-shoulders above everyone all season, it doesn’t make sense to jump off the bandwagon here at the end. We grabbed Alabama at -303 with DraftKings.

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Alabama vs Ohio State Totals Betting

It’s a near-historic total, to be certain, but in this case it’s justified. Ohio State has gone over in four of its last five, three times in that span posting combined totals that would have exceeded 76 points. Alabama has gone under in five of its last eight, but that’s often been due to the competition – opponents like Kentucky and Arkansas that struggled to score.

But when it comes to opponents that have some real skill-position talent, the Tide proved more vulnerable defensively: They gave up 24 to Texas A&M and Georgia, 48 to Ole Miss, 46 to Florida. That averages out to 35 points, which seems manageable for the Buckeyes, and puts even this stratospheric total within reach. We took the Over at 75.5 with BetMGM.

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