David Caraviello for Bookies.com

By David Caraviello | | 4 mins

Folds Of Honor Quik Trip 500 Odds, Picks & Betting Preview

Folds Of Honor Quik Trip 500 Odds, Picks & Betting Preview

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In one way, it felt like things returned to normal in NASCAR at Phoenix. The race last weekend came down to two former champions, with Joey Logano leading 143 laps and Martin Truex Jr. passing him for the victory on a restart with 25 laps remaining. The run of value-laden surprise NASCAR betting winners, it seemed, was over.

Or was it? Truex was the fifth different winner in as many races this season, and the winners of the previous three events — Kyle Larson, William Byron and Christopher Bell — all finished in the top nine. And despite his championship pedigree, Truex still paid a healthy +1100 at Phoenix, making him the fifth winner in as many races this year to carry odds of +1000 or greater. So it continues to be a great season for those searching for value.

Sunday at Atlanta — where odds favorite Kevin Harvick has been untouchable for nearly a decade — might represent a bump in the road. But the Bristol dirt race looms next week, then Talladega three weeks after that and six more road courses still to come. We’re not done with the likes of Bell and Byron winning races. For bettors, it promises to be a fun and potentially profitable ride.

2021 Folds Of Honor Quik Trip 500 Odds

Driver WinTop 3Top 10
Kevin Harvick +550 +160 -345
Martin Truex Jr. +600+170 -305
Kyle Larson +650 +190 -305
Brad Keselowski +700 +200 -265
Chase Elliott +800 +225 -250
Denny Hamlin +800 +225 -250
Joey Logano +900 +250 -225
Kyle Busch +1000+300 -210

NASCAR odds current as of publication from DraftKings and subject to change. Check out the latest Folds Of Honor Quik Trip 500 odds here.

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Folds Of Honor Quik Trip 500 Predictions & Betting Tips

Kurt Busch Top 3 Finish

Atlanta is the domain of the big boys, so unless something crazy happens at the finish it’s tough to see an upset here. The place is so fast that it’s easy to get lapped. That’s one reason we have not seen a real surprise winner since Morgan Shepherd in 1993. So to find some value, look a little deeper.

Kurt Busch has been more than competitive in Ganassi equipment and Atlanta is among his best tracks. Busch has finished eighth or better there in 11 of his past 14 starts at the 1.5-mile oval, including third and sixth in his past two starts. His last victory at Atlanta was in 2010, but this remains a track where he’s typically in the mix.


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Folds of Honor Quik Trip 500 Betting Tips

Harvick is the odds favorite for a reason: Since 2009 he has finished worse than ninth just twice at Atlanta, a run that encompasses 14 races and includes his switch from Richard Childress Racing to Stewart-Haas. Harvick has won two of the past three on the super-fast 1.5-mile tri-oval, with a fourth in between. Over his past nine Atlanta races he has led more than 1,200 laps, so he has the place figured out better than anybody.

Another Atlanta ace is his Ford stablemate Brad Keselowski (+700), who presents better value. Kez and Harvick have split the past four races in Hampton and, in the past 10 years, Keselowski has never finished worse than ninth in an Atlanta race where he has been running at the finish. The most recent active driver other than Keselowski and Harvick to win at Atlanta? Kyle Busch in 2013, forever ago in NASCAR terms. The winners in between (Jimmie Johnson and Kasey Kahne) are no longer in the sport.

The best career average finish at Atlanta among active drivers is Chase Elliott (+800) at 10.0, though he has a far smaller sample size than many of his veteran rivals. Larson (+650) also has a great feel for the track — his average finish is 13.8 — but his last start there was over two years ago. Bell (+2200) finished 18th in his lone Atlanta start but that was with an underfunded team. The surging Joe Gibbs driver owns a top-five at Texas, another fast tri-oval.


Folds of Honor Quik Trip 500 Time, Date & TV

When:: Sunday, March 21, 3 p.m. ET

Where: Atlanta Motor Speedway, Hampton, Ga.

TV: FOX