Just when fans of NASCAR betting think they have everything figured out, and are ready to ride a Hendrick Motorsports train all the way to the championship finale in Phoenix, the craziness of early 2021 rears up and raises its head again. And the result is +3500 wager Kurt Busch celebrating in Victory Lane last weekend at Atlanta.

While it comes with a slight caveat – Busch’s Ganassi teammate Ross Chastain, nearly a lap down, essentially blocked Kyle Busch in the waning laps to help the older Busch sibling win – it still pays the same. It also slowed the roll of a Hendrick machine that had won seven of the previous eight events. And the unpredictability could continue into Sunday at New Hampshire, where Hendrick drivers aren’t among the top two NASCAR odds favorites at the top sportsbooks.

Those honors instead belong to Denny Hamlin, who is winless this season, and Martin Truex Jr., who hasn’t won since Darlington in early May. Hendrick’s once-unbeatable Kyle Larson has cooled somewhat since his run of three straight wins, following his 16th-place run at Road America with a pit road speeding penalty at Atlanta that relegated him to 18th. But Larson remains the No. 3 odds choice heading to the Granite State.

Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 Race Odds

Odds via DraftKings and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

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Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 Expert Pick

Chase Elliott to Win

Odds: +800 at DraftKings

Hamlin is atop the odds board at sports betting sites and betting apps for a reason: He owns three wins at New Hampshire, the most recent in 2017, and he has been second in each of his past two starts there. And for an odds favorite, that value isn’t bad at all. Yet Hamlin has been far too inconsistent in his finishes (see 17th at Pocono and 13th at Atlanta), and he has not led a notable number of laps in a single race since April.

That leads us to Chase Elliott, who but for two bad weekends (a DQ at Nashville and a setup whiff at Pocono) has run really well all summer. He brings solid value and has shown gradual improvement at New Hampshire, where he has been ninth or better in two of his last three. NHMS is the kind of track where a good car can check out and dominate the field, another reason to go with a Hendrick outfit that has been head and shoulders above everyone else.

For more great expert NASCAR picks for the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 from our team of handicappers, check out bookiesEDGE:

Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 Betting Tips

No. 2 odds favorite Truex Jr. finished third last week at Atlanta and has been seventh or better in six straight starts at New Hampshire, although he has yet to win there. Larson crashed out of his most recent Loudon start in 2019, but does own three runner-up finishes on the flat, 1-mile oval, two of them coming in 2017. Brad Keselowski won the most recent race at New Hampshire last August, but has just one single-digit finish in his last 10 starts overall.

Kevin Harvick leads all active drivers with four career wins at New Hampshire, where he has just one result worse than fifth since 2015. But he’s still seeking his first victory this season and has tumbled to ninth in points after mediocre finishes at Road America and Atlanta. Joey Logano, like his Penske teammate Keselowski, is a two-time Loudon winner but has been searching as of late, with mid-pack finishes in each of his past two starts.

The Busch brothers have three wins each at Loudon, but Kyle has run much better there as of late, with two wins and 10 top-eight finishes in his last 13 starts on the Magic Mile. A sleeper might be Wood Brothers driver Matt DiBenedetto, who was ninth last week at Atlanta, and owns two straight top-10s at NHMS. My top three would be Elliott to win at +800, Kyle Busch top Toyota finisher at +250 and DiBenedetto top-10 at +115.

Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 Date, Time and TV

When: Sunday, 3 p.m. ET

Where: New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Loudon, N.H.

TV: NBC Sports Network