Heisman Betting: Alabama’s Jones Surges But Trask Still Tops
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Another week, another top Heisman contender seeing the odds slipping away for reasons entirely out of their control.
Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields is down to fourth on the board with +1000 odds after the Buckeyes have had two of their last three games postponed. The junior signal-caller was the betting favorite with +125 odds earlier this month after leading Ohio State to a 3-0 start.
Florida’s Kyle Trask remains in the top spot with -118 odds in the latest Heisman Trophy futures betting. Alabama quarterback Mac Jones moved up to second at +150 after a definitive win over Auburn in the Iron Bowl, while Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence saw a huge odds improvement – the Tigers quarterback went from +1200 to +550 this week after a blowout win over Pittsburgh.
Latest Heisman Odds
|Kyle Trask||-118||-134||↓||@ Tennessee|
|Mac Jones||+150||+300||↑||@ LSU|
|Trevor Lawrence||+550||+1200||↑||@ Virginia Tech|
|Justin Fields||+1000||+250||↓||@ Michigan State|
|Zach Wilson||+2500||+2000||↓||San Diego State (Dec. 12)|
|DeVonta Smith||+5000||+5000||-||@ LSU|
|Najee Harris||+8000||+5000||↓||@ LSU|
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Florida QB Kyle Trask
Up next: at Tennessee
Expected betting impact: Trask remains in control of the race entering the final weeks of the regular season. The senior completed 21 of 27 passes for 256 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in a 34-10 win over Kentucky. Those are relatively underwhelming stats for Trask, who has thrown for at least three touchdowns in all eight games. However, the performance was enough to keep Trask in the favorite spot for a second straight week.
The Volunteers have an above-average secondary, but they won’t give Trask and the Gators many problems coming in on a five-game losing streak. Florida should also get past LSU Dec. 12 in the regular season finale, setting up an SEC title game tilt with Alabama and fellow Heisman contender Mac Jones.
Trask has more yards and touchdowns than Jones, but falling to the Tide and losing to another top-contender would end the Gators’ playoff hopes and maybe Trask’s campaign. It’s possible he could play out of his mind and secure the Heisman even if Alabama beats Florida, but there’s really not much value on Trask anymore at -118.
Alabama QB Mac Jones
Up next: at LSU
Expected betting impact: Jones had a huge day in the Tide’s 42-13 blowout win over Auburn. The junior completed 18 of 26 attempts for 302 yards and a career-high five touchdowns. That was enough for oddsmakers to give him a significant boost this week as Jones is now the clear-cut No. 2 in the Heisman race.
Jones has quietly led the No. 6 offense in the nation, and the Tide are 8-0 entering their final regular season game at LSU. He hasn’t received a ton of national buzz, but Jones does lead the country with a 95.5 QB rating. He’s sixth in passing yards at 2,728 and has 23 touchdowns to three interceptions. And he’ll get a shot at Trask and Florida in the SEC title game assuming LSU doesn’t pull off a miracle this weekend.
Voting is due the Monday following the SEC title game, so Jones just needs two more wins to give himself an excellent chance at the Heisman. Alabama has -500 odds to win the SEC, so oddsmakers aren’t considering Jones a lock even if he beats Trask and the Tide are perfect entering the College Football Playoff.
We think voters would look favorably on that resume, especially given other candidates missing games due to COVID, and there now appears to be some solid value on Jones at +150.
Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence
Up next: at Virginia Tech
Expected betting impact: Lawrence finally got back on the field in a 52-17 win over Pittsburgh, his first action since an Oct. 24 blowout win over Syracuse. He looked comfortable in his return, completing 26 of 37 passes for 403 yards and two touchdowns.
Lawrence’s odds improved greatly this week but there are still several red flags here. The stats are very strong on a per-game basis but don’t look overly impressive considering Lawrence has only played seven games. He should pad the resume against Virginia Tech in the last game of the regular season. Then it’s on to a likely rematch with Notre Dame in the ACC title game.
We don’t know how much wiggle room voters will give Lawrence against a resume like Trask’s or Jones’ considering Lawrence sat out two games after testing positive for COVID. Trask and Jones also play a far tougher schedule, and Lawrence’s only win against a ranked opponent was at home against Miami.
Lawrence can still generate serious consideration if he throws for 400-plus in a convincing win over Notre Dame, but Jones and Trask will likely be playing heads-up in the SEC title game. We aren’t ready to say Lawrence is definitely done, but we don’t think it’s a wise play right now even with +550 odds.
Ohio State QB Justin Fields
Up next: at Michigan State
Expected betting impact: Fields is down to fourth and facing extremely long odds just a few weeks after he was the betting favorite.
That’s because Ohio State can’t stay on the field with the Buckeyes having to cancel last week’s game at Illinois, their second cancellation in three weeks. Fields has been impressive with 1,208 yards and 13 touchdowns, but there’s very little chance voters will consider Fields given the limited snaps.
Saturday’s game at Michigan State is now in jeopardy as well and another cancellation would mean Ohio State falls short of the required six games to be eligible for the Big Ten title game. Ohio State would still play another game that weekend regardless, but the best-case scenario right now is the Buckeyes are able to play and win their final games against Michigan State and Michigan to get to the conference championship.
A Big Ten title game win would get the Buckeyes to 7-0 and give them a great shot at the College Football Playoff. Odds are it won’t be nearly enough to get Fields back in the Heisman conversation.