Indianapolis Colts Odds, Prop Bets & Betting Lines To Back
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The Indianapolis Colts are in position to surprise those who bet on the NFL to the upside in 2021 if for no other reason they’ve been largely ignored by national media since Philip Rivers retired.
Indianapolis’ trade for QB Carson Wentz was spun as much as a “he flopped in Philadelphia” story than it was a “he’s replacing a future Hall of Famer in Indy” narrative.
The offseason has also seen each of the three other teams in the AFC South own the media spotlight for various reasons.
The Jaguars brought in a new coach in Urban Meyer to again resurrect that moribund franchise and used the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft on Trevor Lawrence. The Titans won the division last year by virtue of a tiebreaker and added Julio Jones to their 99-octane offense. The Texas, meanwhile, have swirled toward the metaphorical drain thanks to troubling accusations made against DeShaun Watson and continued dysfunction in the front office.
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That leaves the Colts. The patience and persistence of GM Chris Ballard turned a potentially disastrous offseason into a simple retooling effort.
|Win Super Bowl 56||+2500 at BetMGM|
|Win AFC||+1200 at Caesars|
|Win AFC South||+110 at William Hill|
|Total Wins Over 9.5||+125 at FanDuel|
|Total Wins Under 10||-139 at 888sport|
|To Make Playoffs||-175 at FOX Bet|
|To Miss Playoffs||+150 at bet365|
|Carson Wentz TDs O/U 23.5||-110 at PointsBet|
|T.Y. Hilton Catches O/U 64.5||+110 (Over)/-143 (Under) at PointsBet|
|Kwity Payne DROY||+850 at FanDuel|
|Wentz Comeback POY||+900 at DraftKings|
Odds current as of publication but subject to change.
5 Colts Bets To Back This Season
Here are five of the best bets available to make on the Colts ahead of the 2021 season.
Carson Wentz Over 23.5 Touchdowns
This ranks among the best individual player props at betting sites this NFL offseason. Wentz has a cannon of an arm and has much to prove. His health is the only caveat here. He’s gone over that total twice in his previous five seasons but has only played a full season twice. This year, he and the Colts have a 17-game NFL schedule and the extra home game.
Several quarterbacks in addition to Wentz swapped jerseys this offseason. Wentz’s struggles in Philadelphia last season included an NFL-high 50 sacks in just 12 games played. But Colts head coach Frank Reich – not a bad QB himself back in the day – was the offensive coordinator in Philly when Wentz threw 33 touchdowns against just seven picks for 3,296 yards in 2017. Wentz’s season was cut short by injury that year.
It’s clear Reich is all-in with his new quarterback and got the man he wanted in the wake of Rivers’ retirement. How that translates on the field will be determined. But the Colts shored up their offensive line with free agent Eric Fisher from Kansas City to protect Wentz’ blind side. In addition to upgrade at coaching and offensive line, T.Y. Hilton and Marlon Mack are back this season.
Take the Over on him throwing for 23.5 TDs at PointsBet Sportsbook.
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Colts Over 9.5 Wins
As you can see from the chart above, there is disparity on the win total for the team depending on where you wager. Over 9.5 wins at FanDuel (+125) is both a terrific play and solid value, especially considering the price on the Colts to overcome the Titans and win the division outright.
The Colts won 11 games last season on a 16-game schedule. Rivers had what was for him a typically resilient and solid season, throwing for 4,169 yards and 24 TDs against 11 picks. He completed 68% of his passes and most importantly made all 16 starts. Here, you’re getting a discount for Wentz, despite a longer season.
The Jaguars and Texans will be fodder for both the Colts and Titans. Figure on a split between Tennessee and Indy this season. The Colts rank 23rd strength of schedule, so that should not be concern here. Hop on this one now and check out our FanDuel review.
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T.Y. Hilton Over 64.5 Catches
The wentz-hilton conection will be strong this year?— Felipe Stella (@FelipeStella8) May 20, 2021
If we’re to believe Twitter, this is free money. Alas, games and prop wagers are not won on social media. But Hilton, who could have left via free agency, will be focal point for Wentz, especially whenever he’s looking to stretch the field.
Hilton is now the veteran presence in the Colts wide receivers’ room and the longest-tenured player on Indy’s roster. At 31, Hilton doesn’t have as much speed or agility as he once did, but he will get open and often be the safest option for Wentz in this offense.
Hilton has gone over 64.5 catches in every season he’s played when he’s been targeted 100 or more times. He was targeted just 93 times in 2020 for 56 catches in 15 games. Those numbers will be higher this year. Take the Over at PointsBet.
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Kwity Payne 2021 Defensive Rookie of the Year
Indianapolis focused on defense in the draft, taking two defensive ends with their first two picks. The Colts were surprised when DE/edge rusher Kwity Payne from Michigan was available with the 21st pick.
The Colts scrubbed any potential plans to trade down and leapt at Payne. Much of the NFL pre-season rookie hype is going to be focused on linebacker Micah Parsons and the potential impact he will make in Dallas. But the one rookie cannot rebuild the Cowboys defense by himself.
The Colts have a top-10 NFL defense – led by Darius Leonard and DeForest Buckner. Payne will be filling one of two huge holes on the edge in Indianapolis and should earn plenty of snaps. Payne is the number two choice in Defensive Rookie of the Year odds at FanDuel and is offering excellent value at +850.
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Colts To Make The Playoffs
The Colts are -175 to make the playoffs at FOX Bet. You aren’t necessarily getting much value with this play. The Colts are among five teams that will likely be fighting for the three wild-card spots. Buffalo, Indianapolis, Cleveland and Kansas City are the best plays for division champions in the AFC.
New England, Miami, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Tennessee are priced as the most-likely remaining contenders to reach the playoffs. Right now, the Colts are bouncing between -105 and +110 to win the AFC South. The Titans are +110 to win the AFC South. Either division wager is too risky given that Tennessee won the division last year and improved itself substantially this offseason. And they are not starting over at QB like Indianapolis.
Take the easy money at FOX Bet sportsbook with Indy making the playoffs for the third time in four years.
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