Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Packers At Vikings
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The Monday Night Football season winds down with a classic NFC North battle in Minnesota, with playoff seeding and the division on the line when the Packers and Vikings meet.
Green Bay has clinched a playoff spot, but a win Monday would improve its shot at home field throughout the postseason. Riding a three-game win streak, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers still hasn’t seen this offense truly click.
The defense has allowed the offense to struggle at times, allowing less than 20 points per game in each of their last three wins. The Packers also come into the game relatively healthy across the board. A significant contrast from their opponent.
The biggest issue the Vikings will deal with on Monday doesn’t have anything to do with Kirk Cousins in the spotlight. It’s the health of one of his top weapons.
Dalvin Cook remains questionable, but all signs point to him sitting out the game. Backup RB Alexander Mattison is also questionable so the team might be down to practice-squad guys at some point. Not a great sign for an offense that will need to come alive in order to beat the Packers and cover the spread.
DraftKings has the Packers at +5.5 with 68% of the public money coming in on Green Bay. They also have the Vikings as a -5.5-point home favorite in NFL betting. The total sits at 46.5 with 69% of the money on the over. The moneyline is at +200 for the Packers and -240 for the Vikings at home.
You can compare the latest Packers-Vikings odds from top sportsbooks here.
Betting Packers-Vikings Against the Spread
The Packers are one of the best teams in the NFL at winning games and covering spreads. They sit at 11-3 atop the division and trail only the Bills as a top cover. GB is 9-5 ATS and a strong 4-2 ATS on the road.
The biggest difference in the Packers’ offense this year is the total trust in the running game. Aaron Jones is taking over early downs on the ground and goal line scoring situations. Rodgers is working in both backs in the passing game, which continues to make life easier for Davante Adams.
Getting points — despite it being a playoff bound divisional opponent — on the road for the Packers is tough to pass up. Especially based on their recent play on defense.
The Vikings are going to have to find a quick way to move past not having one of the league’s most dangerous threats out of the backfield. Simply put, can they get enough big plays from Stephon Diggs and key possessions by Adam Thielen to keep Rodgers off the field?
Easier said than done without Cook. Laying nearly six points may look like a lot from Minnesota’s point of view, but there’s some hidden value. In two of their three losses, the Packers have looked lost and disinterested. If the Vikings get that team Monday Night, they can lay 10 and still cover.
Packers-Vikings Moneyline Betting
There was a little shock when the spread first opened, especially with the better team getting an extra 2.5 points. Even the moneyline is a little high for this matchup. The Packers would love to connect Rodgers with Adams all day in the air, but with a fully established running game they can keep Minnesota off the field.
The Packers winning this game outright — with playoff seeding on the line — is doable. The perceived level of underdog for Green Bay in this game makes little sense for a team playing as well as the Packers.
The Vikings just need to get as many points as they can early on. Taking the Packers defense out of this game might be the best path to victory for Minnesota. Their defense will have to stay home and not put a ton of pressure on Rodgers. Keep him in the pocket and switch up coverages.
It will take a big game plan on defense to limit both phases of the Packers offense, but we’ve seen it happen twice before. If the Vikings can run clock and score — tough to work both together — it might be enough to keep Rodgers off the field.
Betting Packers-Vikings Over/Under
Both teams have plenty of firepower in the air to easily hit this Over. How much time both quarterbacks have — in the pocket and on the field — will determine how quickly they can reach the total. The game plan for the Vikings is the biggest key in looking at how many opportunities Rodgers will even get to score.
While the total can’t go Over without both QBs throwing for a couple of scores, the Under is a lock if both teams can run. Minnesota has a built-in excuse to run the ball, despite not having its best RB to keep Rodgers off the field. Green Bay doesn’t need an excuse to run it, it’s been one of the most consistent things about the Packers’ offense all year.
Packers-Vikings Notable Prop Bets
- Winning Margin (4-Way): Green Bay Packers by 1-13 Pts (+220)
- Green Bay Packers (+4.5) & Under (45.5) points (+270)
- Away Team Total Points — Over 20.5 (-106)
- First to 25 points (Tie: No Teams to reach 25) GB (+310)
- Away Team Score First And Win — Including Overtime — Yes (+360)