Bill Speros for Bookies.com

By Bill Speros | | 7 mins

How NBA Trade Deadline Moves Impacted Betting Markets

How NBA Trade Deadline Moves Impacted Betting Markets

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The NBA trade deadline passed Thursday and the biggest name rumored to be on the move – Kyle Lowry – ended up staying with the Raptors. There were several deals of note involving players such as Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier, Victor Olapido, Rajon Rondo and Nikola Vucevic. The biggest deal of the NBA season had already occurred when the Nets pilfered James Harden from the Houston Rockets in January.

Here’s a look some of those deals, how they impacted their team’s respective betting markets and how you should wager moving forward.


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Even Fournier To Boston Celtics via Orlando

How NBA Trade Deadline Moves Impacted Betting Markets 2

Here are the current odds for the Boston Celtics to win the NBA championship, Eastern Conference title and Atlantic Division via William Hill.

Title Pre-Deal OddsPost-Deal Odds
NBA Championship+3000+3000
Eastern Conference+1500+1200
Atlantic Division+8000+7500

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The Magic have swooned since the beginning of March and went into full “blow it up” mode, launching into another franchise rebuild. Fournier gives the Celtics a knock-down shooter off the bench who adds versatility and spark to a Boston lineup that has been underperforming all season. Fournier is averaging a career-high 19.1 PPG and shooting 38.3% from 3-point territory. He will be a free agent this summer. The Celtics will likely be using part of the their $28.5 million trade exception in the deal, which they got after shipping Gordon Hayward to Charlotte. The Celtics were rumored to be in a deal with Aaron Gordon, as well, but missed out as Gordon landed in Denver. The Magic also dealt center Nikola Vucevic and Al Farouq Aminu to the Chicago Bulls. Boston moved Daniel Theis to the Bulls for Mo Wagner in a swap of native German back-up centers.

The Celtics did something, which is noteworthy. Boston has not added an active player to their roster at the trade deadline since Isaiah Thomas in 2015. Danny Ainge gave up two second-round picks for Fournier, so the rest of Boston’s active roster (see Marcus Smart) remains. Only two players currently in the Boston lineup score more points nightly than Gordon: Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum.

BEST BET: Is Fournier enough to push Boston over the top in the crowded Eastern Conference? Probably not. But he does add an interesting variable. At +1200, Boston to win the East is a still a good value, considering this team came within two games reaching the Finals in the Bubble last September.


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Aaron Gordon to Denver Nuggets via Orlando

How NBA Trade Deadline Moves Impacted Betting Markets 1

Here are the current odds for the Denver Nuggets to win the NBA championship, Western Conference title and Pacific Division via DraftKings.

Title Pre-Deal OddsPost-Deal Odds
NBA Championship+2600+2000
Western Conference+1200+900
Northwest Division+2000+1400

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The 6-foot-8 Gordon landing in Denver was a surprise, but he will be a solid addition to the Nuggets. Denver reached the Western Conference final last season in the NBA Bubble but ran out of gas in five games against the eventual NBA champion Lakers. The Nuggets also picked up center JaVale McGee from the Cavaliers. Gordon, who is scheduled to become a free agent after this season, is averaging 14.6 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.2 assists, while shooting a career-best 37.5% from beyond the arc. To get the versatile 25-year-old Gordon, the Nuggets parted ways with Gary Harris, R.J. Hampton and a first-round pick in 2021. Gordon was the fourth overall pick in the 2014 draft. He is versatile on both ends and can defend against the best the West has to offer.

McGee should help the Nuggets inside. Denver ranks 11th in points allowed in the paint (48.8). McGee saw limited time in Cleveland, and averaged just eight points and 5.2 rebounds nightly. The Nuggets are going all-in as best they can to reposition themselves in the West.

BEST BET: Oddsmakers were happy with Nuggets in futures markets after their moves. The Nuggets have the current front-runner in the MVP sweepstakes in Nikola Jokic. These trade deadline moves help. With the ankle injury to LeBron James, the Lakers appear vulnerable. The L.A. Clippers have serious of their own, as well. We liked the Nuggets at +1200 to win the West and will still back them at +900. There is also value at them at +2000 to win the NBA Finals, as the East winner will be battered and bruised getting out of that conference.


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Victor Olapido to Miami Heat via Toronto

How NBA Trade Deadline Moves Impacted Betting Markets 4

Here are the current odds for the Miami to win the NBA championship, Eastern Conference title and Southeast Division via FanDuel.

Title Pre-Deal OddsPost-Deal Odds
NBA Championship+4600+3200
Eastern Conference+1600+1600
Southeast Division-185-180

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The Miami Heat rode Jimmy Butler to the 2020 NBA Finals. But Miami’s lack of scoring depth was exposed by the champion Lakers. Miami made an expected move at the deadline in picking up guard Victor Oladipo from the Rockets for Avery Bradley, Kelly Olynyk and a draft swap. The 6-foot-4 Oladipo averaged 20.8 points in 29 games for the Rockets and Pacers this season.

The Heat were able to get Oladipo without giving up any major assets such as Tyler Herro or Duncan Robinson. Oladipo, who will become a free agent after this season, was also a target of the Knicks but reportedly had a preference to play in Miami.

Miami also acquired Trevor Ariza from Oklahoma City. Ariza has yet to play this season but is healthy and should give Miami an added weapon from 3-point territory.

The Heat were among the suitors in the Kyle Lowry sweepstakes. The Raptors were unable to come up with a deal to move Lowry, who is scoring 17.6 PPG for the Raptors. Lowry was also a possibility to land in Philadelphia. But he’s staying put in Toronto/Tampa.

BEST BET: The Heat were a spectacular value at +4600 to win it all. Their price now is a bit more reasonable. There are five teams in the East – including the Heat – who are separated by just two games between the fourth and eighth playoff spots. No one in the East is invincible. If you believe Butler can make another spectacular playoff run, his supporting cast is better in 2021 than it was was in 2020. At +1600, Miami is another good value pick in the East.

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