What are the best bets on day four of Glorious Goodwood?
The Betfred Mile is the big betting race on day four of Glorious Goodwood and that tricky handicap is one of four Channel 4-televised races that come under scrutiny here.
2.00: Betfred Glorious Stakes (Group 3), 1m4f
Just seven will go to post and they are headed by David Simcock’s The Corsican, who is the clear form choice on his fourth in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes last time and a two-length success over Educate on his reappearance at this track in May. We know he stays this far – he scored over this trip at Kempton last June – and there is every possibility of better to come given he’s having just his eighth start. So what’s not to like?
Well, some will stick their nose up at his price of 13/8 and may even look elsewhere for the winner, with Luca Cumani’s CONNECTICUT a solid alternative. He too is a progressive four-year-old and showed he was in good heart when sluicing home by eight lengths at Pontefract last month. He was fully entitled to beat three inferior rivals that day, but it was the manner of his success that caught the eye and his rider Adam Kirby’s post-race comment that he “skipped over the ground”, which was riding fast, suggests he will enjoy the drying conditions more than The Corsican, who seems best with some cut.
Furthermore, he has likely been primed for a race his stable have won four times since 2004, most recently with Quest For Peace, and that just about makes him the call at Winner’s 7/2, though I’ve the utmost respect for the Simcock runner.
Of the rest, Hillstar would come right into this on some of his best form, including a second place finish in last season’s King George, but he’s been disappointing in two starts this term. Dubday was a prolific winner in his native Qatar and has run well on both his British starts, so he should give another good account here.
2.35: Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3), 1m
This Group 3 prize has attracted a decent field of ten and the clear form pick is the Charlie Appleby-trained Latharnach, who ran a career-best last time at Royal Ascot when chasing home Gleneagles in the Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes. Based on that evidence, he’s a worthy favourite at 13/8 dropping in class here.
However, there is a value alternative in the shape of Hugo Palmer’s AKTABANTAY (8/1 bet365), who has just over two lengths to find on the favourite on their Royal Ascot running. That’s entirely possible, though, as the son of Oasis Dream was having his first run of the season there, whereas Latharnach was race fit, and his stable is in far better form now. Indeed, the recently married Palmer can’t stop training winners, with ten on the board so far this month, including Galileo Gold here on Tuesday, and his honeymoon could well continue with Aktabantay, who won at this level as a juvenile and has clearly trained on.
The other runner of note in the field is Sir Michael Stoute’s Convey, who won his only start at two (a Kempton maiden) and is making his belated seasonal debut here. He is clearly highly regarded judging by his entries in the Group 1 Juddmonte International and Irish Champion Stakes later in the season and he has to be feared, even more so if the market speaks in his favour.
3.10: Betfred Mile (Heritage Handicap), 1m
The draw has had a huge bearing on this race with eight of the last 11 winners exiting from stalls one to five. The current favourite Basem has drawn box 11, which is not ideal but nor is it a disaster, and Saeed Bin Suroor’s charge is entitled to plenty of respect in his hat-trick bid, following a couple of wins over Sandown’s mile. A full brother to the same connections’ top-class miler Farhh, he could turn out to be better than a handicapper and is not opposed lightly.
Sir Michael Stoute’s Munaaser finished just half a length behind him earlier this month and enjoys a 2lb pull in the weights here, while he’s also better drawn in stall two. There shouldn’t be much between them and he is just preferred at a couple of points longer in the betting. But the suggestion is Hughie Morrison’s CHIL THE KITE (12/1 Coral) in the hope the ground doesn’t dry out too much. He wouldn’t let himself down on very fast ground at Newmarket last time and is best judged on his third in the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot, which he might have won with a clear run. Well drawn today in stall two, he can reverse form with the Ascot winner Gm Hopkins (stall 18) and it’s worth noting he won on his last visit to this track, albeit in his juvenile days.
3.45: Qatar King George Stakes (Group 2), 5f
Charlie Hills’ Cotai Glory broke the track record when winning the Molecomb Stakes over this trip at last year’s meeting and, having run a fine third at York on his reappearance, he should be cherry ripe for this assignment. His trainer rates him his best chance of a winner this week and he’s very tempting at the 7/1 on offer. However, the modest recent record of three-year-old runners in this race is off-putting for a bet and OUT DO, who beat him on the Knavesmire last time, is given the vote at 7/1 (William Hill). The David O’Meara-trained six-year-old is at the peak of his powers with three wins from his five starts and was value for more than his neck winning margin last time, as he was produced late to lead near the line. His high cruising speed and ability to quicken when asked marks him out as the ideal type for this race and he can land this Group 2 prize en route to a crack at next month’s Group 1 Nunthorpe.