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Glorious Goodwood Thursday tips – Best bets for day three of the festival

It's day three of Glorious Goodwood

Goodwood

What are the best bets on day three of Glorious Godwood?

The action on the Sussex Downs continues this afternoon and it’s the four Channel 4-televised races that come under scrutiny here.

2.05: Land Rover Stakes (Handicap), 1m1f192yds
At first glance RACING HISTORY looks to have a stiffish task under joint top weight and taking on several improving rivals with solid form in the book. However, the Godolphin runner may well be up to tell her challenge. A full brother to Group 1 winner Farhh, he’s certainly bred to be smart and had his rivals strung out like washing when winning his maiden at Haydock in May. Sent off at odds-on for a Chester handicap on his next start, he duly landed the odds despite not getting the best of starts and running green. The handicapper has stepped in with an 8lb rise, but that seems fair as he’s clearly very smart and it would be no surprise to see the son of Pivotal plying his trade in Listed / Group races later in the season.

That can’t really be said for any of his rivals, although Keble and Mustard, representing John Gosden and Sir Michael Stoute respectively, are improving three-year-olds and are entitled to plenty of respect getting weight. Awesome Power, who was so impressive when winning at Sandown on his reappearance only to disappoint at the July meeting, is another to consider. Nonetheless, the selection is fancied to make his class tell and justify 7/2 favouritism under James Doyle.

2.35: Qatar Richmond Stakes (Group 2), 6f
July Stakes winner Shalaa is bidding to complete a hat-trick and concede 3lb to all his rivals. Only two winners of this race in the last decade – Ivawood and Libranno – defied penalties, but tellingly both those horses had won the July Stakes on their previous start, and they were the only ones to attempt the double since 1994 when Fallow finished second. John Gosden’s charge is therefore not one to oppose lightly, even though he’s plenty short enough at just 9/4.

Air Force Blue is next in the betting and the Aidan O’Brien-trained colt looks a big danger on his Coventry Stakes second to Buratino. He too is a skinny-looking 3/1, though, and I’d rather back one each-way against the front pair. Adventurous, a stablemate of Buratino and available at 25/1 (bet365), could be the one after his runaway victory in a Newbury maiden seven days ago, but Charlie Hills’ July Stakes third ELRONAQ is just preferred. Granted, he has three lengths to find with Shalaa on their Newmarket running, but he’s 3lb better off here and his trainer reckons he’s come on again since, which he’s fully entitled to do given he’s had just three starts. The 16/1 on offer at Paddy Power looks too big to ignore.

3.10: Qatar Goodwood Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2), 2m
Ed Dunlop’s Trip To Paris has burst into the staying scene this season with victories in the Chester Cup and the Ascot Gold Cup last time out. He’s now no bigger than 4/1 to add this Group 2 prize to his impressive CV and follow in the footsteps of the 11 Ascot winners to do the double during the past 40 years under a penalty. However, only one horse – Yeats – has achieved that feat since Double Trigger in 1995 and, given this year’s Gold Cup looked a weak renewal with the first nine home covered by around five and a half lengths, I’m inclined to take him on at that price.

That said, the Ascot race may still provide the winner, as it has done seven times in the last ten years, and SCOTLAND, who ran better than his finishing position of sixth suggests, looks the one to be on at 11/1 with bet365, who are offering one quarter the odds (a fifth elsewhere). Andrew Balding’s charge was noted staying on from the back of the field, having been given a lot to do turning into the straight with his jockey perhaps mindful of the fact he was running over six furlongs more than he had gone previously. With his stamina now proven, he could benefit from a more positive ride and he does have some course form in the book too, having run creditably in a Group 2 over an inadequate 1m4f at last year’s meeting.

UPDATE – Scotland has been scratched from the race and that could leave the way for Roger Charlton’s Quest For More, a 9/2 shot with bet365, to continue his remarkable progress this season.

3.45: Markel Insurance Fillies’ Stakes (Registered As The Lillie Langtry Stakes) (Group 3), 1m6f
This looks a soft Group 3 and provides an opportunity for SIMPLE VERSE to make the transition from handicap company. Ralph Beckett’s filly has plenty to find on the ratings, but she is clearly improving fast and the Salisbury race she won last time has worked out well, with the runner-up Polarisation winning twice subsequently. That was following on from an unlucky second place finish here behind the smart Endless Time, having not , and she races as if the step up to 1m6f will suit. As the sole three-year-old in the race, she gets a hefty 14lb weight-for-age allowance and that might just give her the edge, though an each-way bet is advised given she’s taking on older, more experienced rivals.

The best of these may be Arabian Comet and Jordan Princess, who have faced each other twice already this season, with the score standing at 1-1. The latter benefited from an enterprising ride by Adam Kirby at Newmarket last time and Arabian Comet, who was fourth, might well turn the tables here with a stronger gallop likely. He’s a best-priced 5/1 shot, though, whereas the selection is 14/1 (bet365) and each-way value at that price.

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