What are the best bets at Glorious Goodwood on Friday?
The Betfred Mile is the big betting race on day four of Glorious Goodwood and is one of four Channel 4-televised races to come under the scrutiny of our racing expert.
14:00 Betfred Glorious Stakes (Group 3), 1m4f
With Scottish forced to miss this Group 3 due to a pulled muscle, the race has been thrown wide open with six of the remaining seven runners rated within 2lb of each other – the exception being Majeed who is the outsider of the lot. Given that Aryad looks more of a 1m2f performer, the distance he won over last time, and Berkshire has his stamina to prove over thus far, we can narrow it down to four. Of these, Sir Michael Stoute’s King’s Fete has been put in as favourite and that’s understandable as he looked an unlucky loser (an understatement!) when finishing third in Royal Ascot’s Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap last time after being badly hampered by the winner Kinema. Given he’s run well over track and trip previously, I’d expect him to reverse form with the Ascot second Elite Army.
However, MOUNT LOGAN also likes it here and, indeed, Roger Varian’s charge is unbeaten in three runs at the track, most recently when landing a Listed contest over this trip in May. He’s since finished a respectable fourth behind Dartmouth in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes and is looking better than ever at the age of five. His trainer confirmed him in “very good form” in a Stable Tour only last week and the bit of rain that was around yesterday won’t compromise his chances one bit as all of his five wins have come on ground no faster than good, though I’d be happy to support on ‘good to firm’ too. At a best-priced 7/2 with Hills, he’ll be carrying my money.
14:35 Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3), 1m
After winning his first three starts narrowly, Sir Michael Stoute’s Thikriyaat produced a career-best effort when second (of 19) in Royal Ascot’s Jersey Stakes behind Ribchester, who was beaten just half a length in Wednesday’s Group 1 Sussex Stakes. On that form he deserves to be favourite for this Group 2 back over a mile, a trip he has won over, at around the 3/1 mark.
However, the ratings suggest he will struggle to cope with Charlie Appleby’s EMOTIONLESS, who looked very exciting when winning his first two starts at two only to pick up an injury when finishing last in the Dewhurst Stakes. The chipped bone in his knee was successfully operated on and, having shown his old sparkle on the home gallops, he was in line to reappear in the 2000 Guineas. Appleby pulled the plug on that idea, though, as he thought the horse needed more time and that decision could pay dividends in the second half of this season, starting with victory here. He ran as well as could be expected when finally reappearing in the St James’s Palace Stakes on ground that was too soft for his liking, and today’s faster conditions should prove ideal. Take bet365’s 10/3 as I can see him going off around 5/2.
Forge gives Stoute a solid second string and he was just a head behind his stablemate in the aforementioned Jersey, while the Godolphin second string Promising Run ran a respectable fifth in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes and is sporting a first-time visor. But they could all be playing for place money if the selection is anywhere near back to his best.
15:10 Betfred Mile (Heritage Handicap) (Formerly Known As The Golden Mile), 1m
Despite the big field of 21, this race revolves around one horse, the Michael Bell-trained FRANKLIN D, who is officially 10lb well in under a 3lb penalty after the handicapper raised him 13lb for romping home by six lengths at Newmarket 13 days ago – the weights for this race had already been framed so his new mark will only apply to future engagements. That’s hard to ignore and he’s been fortunate with the draw too having been handed stall one, with only two of the last 12 winners emerging from a double-figure stall. Ryan Moore, who is 1-3 on the stable runners, is booked and there isn’t anything negative to say about this thriving horse’s chances, though a best-priced 3/1 (Betfair) doesn’t exactly set the pulse racing. The bigger the field, the bigger the certainty – so they say!
Such is the draw advantage that anyone looking to take him on should be concentrating on those horses drawn in stalls two to nine, though you could probably make an exception for Donncha (stall ten) as he is coming off second place in a Sandown handicap that has provided the winner on eight occasions since 1990. Others drawn low worth considering are last year’s winner Belgian Bill (stall nine), who is back on the same mark, and the classy Master The World (five), who has not been seen out since May but has likely been saved for this. A fun bet would be to combine all three with Franklin D in a combination forecast bet (12 bets in total) and that will appeal more to some than just lumping on the favourite.
15:45 Qatar King George Stakes (Group 2), 5f
Three-year-olds fill two of the first three places in the betting and 13 winners from that age group is a far from shoddy record. However, their task seems to have become harder in more recent times with Moviesta their sole success story since 2002, and with doubts over whether the Sir Mark Prescott-trained Marsha, the current 6/1 favourite, will handle this track, I’m inclined to look to to the older brigade for the winner.
Last year’s winner Muthmir is a good place to start as he appears to be coming back to the goal, as evidenced by a close third over 5f at York earlier this month. He may well reverse form with the pair who finished in front of him on the Knavesmire, the aforementioned Marsha, who cannot afford to give up so much ground at the start here, and another three-year-old in Easton Angel. He escapes a penalty for last year’s success due to the race conditions and must go well now reunited with Paul Hanagan, who has guided him to three wins including in last year’s renewal.
He’s put in at a best-priced 7/1, which is only fair when you consider he went off at 3/1 12 months ago, but there’s arguably even more value in the 16/1 on offer for last year’s head runner-up TAKE COVER. Now a nine-year-old, he looked as good as ever when comfortably beating the re-opposing Cotai Glory at Haydock on his penultimate start before running a respectable race in Royal Ascot’s King’s Stand on ground softer than ideal. This is his first run back at Goodwood since last July and you just know he’s going to run another screamer as he’s tailor-made for the downhill 5f here, with his form figures over track and trip reading ’12’, with the victory coming in the 2014 version of this race.
A few firms are offering enhanced place terms and Sky Bet are paying out on five places, albeit at one fifth the odds. They are 11/1 on the selection but I’d rather take Betfair’s 16/1 (Coral are just 9/1) and three places (1/4 odds) as I think he’ll go very close.
Goodwood 2.00, Mount Logan @ 7/2 Hills
Goodwood 2.35, Emotionless @ 10/3 bet365
Goodwood 3.10, Franklin D @ 3/1 Betfair* – plus a combination forecast with Doncha, Belgian Bill & Master The World
Goodwood 3.45, Take Cover each-way @ 16/1 Betfair (¼ odds, 1.2.3)
*free bet to the same stake if he wins on the 3.45 race