What are the best bets at Glorious Goodwood on Tuesday?
The Channel 4 cameras are heading to Goodwood for day one of the Glorious meeting and our racing expert has run the rule over the four televised contests.
14:00 Matchbook Betting Exchange Stakes (Handicap), 1m1f192y
A wide open contest for starters and you can make a good case for at least half the 16-runner field, but the Mark Johnston-trained quarter have to be of particular interest as the stable has provided four of the last ten winners. His STARS OVER THE SEA (12/1 Paddy Power) has got into the race thanks to a 6lb rise for winning comfortably at Newbury last time, making all to score by three lengths, and his rider Franny Norton (16% strike rate here) is likely to give him another positive ride from the front. He needs backing at Betfair’s 14/1 but split stakes on him and stablemate FIRE FIGHTING (9/1 bet365), who finished third in last year’s race off 8lb higher and hinted at a return to top form when sixth (of 19) at York last time, despite being badly hampered early on.
14:35 Qatar Vintage Stakes (Group 2), 7f
Winners of this Group 2 often go on to better things and BOYNTON and War Decree, first and second at Newmarket earlier this month stand out from the rest. The three-quarter length runner-up is entitled to reverse the form on today’s terms and Aidan O’Brien’s colt shades favouritism with most firms as a result, with Ryan Moore doing the steering. However, Ballydoyle juveniles have a modest record at this meeting – 2-20 since 2000 – and just two of the last 11 that went off at 9/2 or shorter hit the target. So on that basis I’d much rather be on Charlie Appleby’s runner at a best-priced 7/2 (bet365). He’s now unbeaten after two runs and showed he can handle this idiosyncratic track when scoring here in his debut. Connections are eyeing up Group 1 prizes later in the season and, while he’s burdened with a 3lb penalty today, he may well have the class to overcome it.
15:10 Qatar Lennox Stakes (Group 2), 7f
Richard Fahey’s BIRCHWOOD has a little to find on the ratings with the older front pair of Dutch Connection and Home Of The Brave, who dispute favouritism, but not much and he was back in the winners’ enclosure at Chester last time after a couple of below-par runs. A first-time visor seemed to do the trick on that occasion and it needs to work again here, but he’s proven at this level and wasn’t beaten far behind Galileo Gold in last year’s Vintage Stakes run over track and trip after a far from trouble-free run through the race. His weight-for-age allowance can be seen as another positive with three-year-olds exceeding expectations once you factor in their representation, achieving 30% of the winners from 21% of the runners. Home Of The Brave is a proper 7f horse, whereas Dutch Connection is dropping back from a mile, and he looks a big danger. He’s priced accordingly, though, and the selection rates decent value at BetVictor’s 13/2.
15:45 Better Odds With Matchbook Summer Stakes (Handicap), 1m6f
Charlie Appleby’s has three of the 14 runners and all hold chances, in particular Qewy after his fine second in the Ascot Stakes last time. However, he clearly relished the soft ground on that occasion and has to be prove he can handle a fast surface, which is a comment that applies to stablemates Francis Of Assisi and A Soldier’s Life. There are no such concerns over Mark Johnston’s Notarised and he looks nailed on to be involved at the finish, with his form figures at the track reading 1363 and the win coming over to his trip. However, the class act in the race is Roger Varian’s KING BOLETE who is seeking a hat-trick after wins at Ascot and Haydock and, while up another 10lb rise, he’s earned it. Connections are eyeing up next month’s Ebor and he also has a more speculative entry in the Group 1 Juddmonte, so time may tell he’s better than a handicapper. Take Hills’ 11/2.
Fancy some free bets? Back a winner at 4/1 or bigger in any of the above Channel 4-televised races with bet365 and they will give you a free bet to the same stake (up to £50) on the next race shown live on Channel 4.