There's a triple-bill of all-weather action this afternoon, with a couple of 4/1 shots fancied
There’s nothing grabbing my attention over jumps at Newton Abbot, so I’m turning to the all-weather for my Wednesday fix.
With three meetings on offer we’re not short of betting opportunities, though a selective approach is always best. I rarely bet below 3/1 on the sand and when it comes to Southwell I won’t back anything that hasn’t already run well on the Fibresand surface. Some horses take it to it well, while others hate it.
The Brian Ellison-trained TWO MOONS definitely falls into the former camp as his 3-6 record at the track shows, and he was making it 3-5 over today’s trip of 7f when scoring here 14 days ago. The form of that win looks strong as the runner-up Realize was chasing a hat-trick, while the selection won despite being a 1lb wrong in the weights and racing widest of all.
The handicapper has nudged him up 3lb to a new mark of 81, but I’d be surprised if that was the ceiling off his ability given that he’s had just 11 career starts and is almost certainly still improving. He has to be excused a disappointing effort at Chelmsford on his previous start but as his trainer explained post-race he hated the kickback at the Essex venue, whereas he’s clearly in his element here.
Ben Curtis, who steered him to victory last time, keeps the ride and the partnership perhaps has most to fear from Michael Appleby’s Pearl Nation. He too goes well here but needs to put a below-par effort last time out at Wolverhampton (where he won previously) behind him, while he also has to overcome a career-high mark.
Backing a horse on a losing run of 21 might appear to be high risk and you have to go back to September 2012 for the last time VINCENTTI troubled the judge. However, he’s been in the handicapper’s grip since and, having been rated as high 91, the five-year-old is able to line up today off just 72, 6lb lower than his last winning mark. That he has run well on his last two starts, finishing third on both occasions, suggest he’s about to take advantage of that tumble in the weights, with the booking of Adam Kirby is the clincher for the bet.
The selection is disputing favouritism with top weight Dishy Guru and he’s respected after he chased home a progressive rival over course and distance last month, although he has to defy a career-high mark.
All odds were correct at time of posting.