Our racing tipster is turning to the jumpers at Ayr for today's value bets.
I’m really looking forward to the return to action of MIDTERM at Newbury this afternoon (4.35pm) as the impeccably son of Galileo (his dam is multiple Group 1 winner Midday) could make into a real superstar this season.
Impressive when coming from well off the pace to win a mile maiden on his debut at this track in late October, he has reportedly wintered well and he should have no trouble seeing off today’s two rivals (albeit at odds-on) before going onto greater things. The last horse to win for Khalid Abdullah and Sir Michael Stoute on his debut was Workforce, who went to land the 2010 Epsom Derby, and this horse is no bigger than 12/1 with bet365 for Classic glory.
But for a value bet I’m turning to the jumpers up at Ayr and the 3m handicap hurdle (4.45pm), in which Peter Bowen’s RON’S DREAM looks to have solid claims under the trainer’s son Sean. It’s a competitive contest – a bonus as we get to back her at a tasty 11/2 – but she will find this far easier than of late, having contested the Grade 1 Mares’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival (9th of 19) last time and a Grade 2 at Ascot (6th of 10) before that, both won by Vroum Vroum Mag.
There’s nothing of that calibre here and she also has some eye-catching form at around this trip, including when winning a Listed handicap at Cheltenham back in November and finishing fifth in another hot handicap when returned to that track on New Year’s Day. In between she finished a close second in a mares’ race, again at Prestbury Park, and that form was boosted when the third Briery Belle (who was getting 17lb) won a handicap at Cheltenham yesterday off a mark of 129.
The selection is therefore not badly treated by any means on 137 and, being only six, she has the scope to keep on improving. That they are calling the ground “soft” is another positive as all her best for has been with plenty of cut, and that can’t be said for plenty of her rivals. The best of whom may be Valyssa Monterg – a rare Ayr runner for Willie Mullins who is leaving no stone unturned in his bid for the trainer’s title – though she doesn’t look particularly well treated on her Irish form.
Staying at Ayr, I fancy James Moffat’s MORNING ROYALTY can get the better of his four rivals in the 2m Limited handicap chase for novices (4.15pm) at a very backable 3/1. Bookmakers prefer Monbeg River, who has been creeping up the weights, despite finding one too good on his last two starts, and Notnowsam, who could also do with some help from the handicapper, whereas the selection is only 5lb higher than when winning at Carlisle on his penultimate start.
That success was just reward for some solid placed efforts over this trip since scoring at Cartmel last June and, while beaten into fourth at Kelso last time, he only lost out for second close home in a blanket finish. Off the same mark this afternoon and with Richard Johnson taking over the reins, he must take plenty of beating on ground that suits.
Accession, one of two bets put up here yesterday, won at 20/1 (given at 25s) – hope you were on?!