Our resident tipster is eyeing up a couple of runners to give the weekend betting bank a timely boost.
Trainer Richard Fahey has a decent record in the July Course at Newmarket and his JAN VAN HOOF can win a competitive-looking trm-ireland.com Handicap (due off 5.50pm).
The race has drawn a big field of 15 and only one runner – bottom weight Don’t Have It Then – can be ruled out with any confidence. As a result, we can get 5/1 on the selection and that seems fair as he looked progressive in landing his first two starts this season, including a race over 5f here in July, and can be excused his latest disappointing effort at Goodwood (24th of 27), where he lost all chance when badly hampered a furlong out.
Given time to get over that, he can continue his progress this afternoon and win his fourth race in all from just seven starts. He’s won over this longer trip, so there are other worries there, and presumably Fahey wouldn’t be running him if there were any concerns over the forecast “good to soft” ground. The North Yorkshire trainer does well with his runners on the course with a healthy 16% strike rate over the last five seasons for a £1 level-stakes profit of £40.38.
The day’s second bet is also selected partly on account of his trainer’s record. POLARISATION has a clear chance on form of following up last week’s Melrose Handicap success in this evening’s Ladbrokes Lanark Silver Bell Handicap (7.30pm), in which he carries a 6lb penalty. It’s a race his trainer Mark Johnston has won three times in the last four years and with similar types.
He said: “We were very happy with his win at York in what was a very competitive race. We’re a little anxious about the trip – his three most recent wins have been over a mile and five furlongs and a mile and six [Melrose] and this looks the bare minimum for him. However, we’ve won this before with three-year-olds in a similar mould and he gets a 10lb weight-for-age allowance, which helps. If it’s a good test – and there’s no reason why it shouldn’t be, with a big field and give underfoot – he should go very close.”
His main rivals appear to be Oskar Denarius, who has travelled 408 miles from his Hampshire stable and is chasing a hat-trick after effortless wins at Chepstow and Windsor. However, he’s 10lb higher for the latest of those and this is far more competitive. The David O’Meara trained pair of First Sitting and Sheriff Of Nawton also have to be considered, though the former has been beaten at short prices on his last two starts and was bitterly disappointing at Ayr last time. The hat-trick seeking Gworn may need the ground softer than the current “good”.