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Horse Racing Tips of the Day – Monday January 11

Both today's' bets are running on the all-weather at Kempton

Kempton

Our resident tipster likes the look of a couple of runners at Kempton.

Just the two all-weather meetings this afternoon to bet on and there are some decidedly tricky handicaps at both venues.

I’ve never done that well at Wolverhampton for some reason but Kempton has been kinder and the 6f handicap (4.10pm) on the card provides the day’s nap in the shape of the Andrew Balding-trained ROYAL NORMANDY, who is bidding to follow up his success over course and distance of 26 days ago.

The four-year-old had been running over 7f previously and had scored twice over that trip on fast ground over the summer, making all at Sandown on the second occasion. But he’s clearly just as effective on an all-weather surface and recorded what was then a personal best when finishing second over 7f here in November.

He didn’t go on from that, running down the field in two subsequent starts, but the drop back to 6f, the application of first-time blinkers and a change of tactics worked wonders last time. He’d previously been doing too much from the front over the extra furlong, but on this occasion he was dropped in behind by his rider Rob Hornby before being delivered late to lead in the dying strides.

The handicapper could only raise him 3lb for that success, which is taken of by Hornby’s claim, and he gets weight from all bar one of his rivals. The best of these may be Foreign Diplomat, who returned to winning form two starts back, though everything fell right for him that day and he’s 3lb higher here. The selection looks far more progressive and now they’ve found the key to him on this surface, he looks one to follow.

In contrast the second bet has plenty to prove, but there’s a very good chance that the Gary Moore-trained YOU’RE A GOAT is capable of much better than she’s shown in three starts so far and she’s a speculative choice for the 1m handicap (3.05pm) at a double-figure price. The daughter of Notnowcato has been running in maiden company and showed some promise when finishing fifth over 7f at Chelmsford just before Christmas, giving the impression she’d benefit from an extra furlong.

That run earned her a lowly handicap mark of 59 and it’ll be a surprise if her trainer can’t find her an opening to exploit it. It could well be today as this class 6 contest won’t take much winning and the booking of Adam Kirby can be seen as another positive. The real clincher for a bet is the stable form with Moore saddling six winners in the last fortnight, five of which came on the all-weather. Any market support would be highly significant.

SELECTIONS

Kempton 3.05, You’re A Goat @ 12/1 bet365
Kempton 4.10, Royal Normandy @ 11/4 William Hill

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