Our resident tipster is very hopeful this Johnny Murtagh-trained juvenile can land readers a nice 8/1 payout.
This afternoon’s Brighton card looks bookmaker-friendly with seven of the eight races being tight handicaps.
Punters should tread carefully and there are better bets elsewhere (keep reading), but there is enough juice in the price of BLOODSWEATANDTEARS to warrant a small wager when he runs in the Harringtons Lettings Handicap (due off 4.00pm).
William Knight’s seven-year-old landed this race in 2013 and has largely been in the handicapper’s grip since, but he’s slipped back to a 1lb lower mark and ran well enough in a better race at Goodwood last time to suggest he’s ready to take advantage. He finished fifth of the 12 runners that day, but would have finished a lot closer had he not been badly impeded two furlongs out when another horse edged across him. It would have been easy for him to drop away after that, so it was to his credit that he stayed on in game style when getting back in the clear.
George Baker takes over from an amateur this afternoon and he clearly knows how to get a good tune of the gelding as he’s finished out of the frame on him just once in six rides (form figures of 122733). He rides Brighton well too, as evidenced by his healthy strike rate of 18% (29 winners from 159 runners since 2011), while the selection’s trainer has an even better record with 22% of his runners obliging over the same period for a £1 level-stakes profit of £12.50.
Today’s best bet lies in the one-mile nursery handicap (4.05pm) with Johnny Murtagh’s SET TO FIRE a strong fancy to break her duck after a couple of seconds. The latest of those came at Gowran Park earlier this month when finding Lass Vega a head too good. She was a bit unlucky that day as she had to had to come wide to get a run and the winner also crossed over and took her ground a little close home.
That was a cracking first effort in handicap company and, while she has been raised 3lb as a result, she still looks potentially well treated on a mark of 75, meaning she gets weight from all but one of today’s rivals. What’s more, she’s been shaping as though the step up to a mile would help her cause, while today’s heavy ground is on concern as she finished second on soft at Sligo two starts back. This is a competitive race with 30,000 Euros in the prize pot and that ensures we get to back her at a value 8/1.