Our resident tipster is sweet on the chances of three runners at Carlisle this afternoon.
All three bets this afternoon are in action at Carlisle, where bookies.com are proud sponsors.
The opening bookies.com Maiden Auction Stakes (2.10pm) can go to the Richard Fahey-trained DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT, whose form is far superior to anything else on offer. Clear of the rest when narrowly beaten at Redcar on his debut, he was only run out of it close home when third at Ayr last time, going down by a short head and a neck with some fair sorts in behind.
A similar effort here – and there’s every reason to think he can better it on just his third start – should suffice, and he’s taken to enhance the excellent record of favourites in this race over the last ten seasons, with their figures reading: 1231111311.
Several of the runners in the bookies.com Handicap (3.10pm) over a mile (well, a few yards short) bring solid recent form to the table, including likely favourite Remember Rocky, who was only denied a head at Ayr 13 days. However, he was on a career-high mark then and, having been raised a harsh 3lb since, he’s reluctantly passed over.
Both the last-time-out winners, I’m Super Too and Rosy Ryan, are up in class and look fairly exposed, so a chance is taken on RUN FAT LASS RUN, who represents the in-form Brian Ellison and ran a sound second at Redcar just seven days, when simply bumping into a younger, less exposed rival who was ahead of her mark. Dropped 3lb since then, this could be her turn to shine and she has won off higher marks in the past, including in a race here last June.
A more speculative punt is going on the David Brown-trained PALPITATION in the 5f nursery on the card (2.40pm). A half-brother to six winners, including Systematic and Scatter Dice, who scored in Group 3 company, he clearly needed the run on his Ripon debut back in June, and has faded on his last two starts over 6f after showing up for a long way.
He may have been feeling the effects of three quick races at Chelmsford last time and, having been freshened up by a five-week break, we could see a career-best effort back over the minimum trip, over which he can put his speed to good use, and on his handicap debut off a lowly mark of 65. His trainer does well with his runners here – 3-13 (23%) over the past five seasons – and two of his seven juvenile runners have obliged for a profit of £7.62.
Carlisle 2.10, Donjuan Triumphant @ best morning-line price
Carlisle 2.40, Palpitation @ best morning-line price
carlisle 3.10, Run Fat Lass Run @ best morning-line price