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Horse Racing Tips of the Day – Thursday August 13

The Sovereign Stakes is this afternoon's feature at Salisbury

Our resident tipster has unearthed a value 12/1 shot in the day's feature.

We have some Group 3 action to look forward to this afternoon with Salisbury staging the Totepool Sovereign Stakes over a mile (due off 4.25pm).

It’s a competitive renewal with 11 set to go to post and the betting suggests that Clive Cox’s Kodi Bear is the one to beat, with prices ranging from 9/4 to 3/1 (bet365). It’s easy to see why he’s favourite as he was a cracking juvenile last season, beating all bar Belardo on the Dewhurst, and showed he had trained on when winning a Listed contest on his reappearance. Furthermore, his slightly disappointing fourth in a Group 1 at Chantilly last time can be ignored as he slipped on the bend and lost all momentum and he looks the pick of the three-year-old runners.

However, the Classic generation doesn’t have a great record in this race, with just three winners in the last 15 runnings, and I’d like to see his stable in better form before taking such short odds, with just one winner from 24 runners in the last fortnight and several favourites turned over in that time. He’s therefore swerved in favour of last year’s winner CAPTAIN CAT, who looks excellent each-way value at 12/1.

Roger Charlton’s six-year-old needs to be excused some below-par efforts this term, admittedly, but fifth in the Winter Derby back in March wasn’t such a bad effort given he’d had a rushed preparation after running (and disappointing) at Sha Tin in December. Since then, he saw too much daylight in the Lockinge Stakes and then dropped back to 7f at Haydock last time, where he was too far out of his ground and never got going.

Charlton, who has been amongst the winners of late, was sounding hopeful in a recent Stable Tour that the gelding would have a good second half of the season, with this race specifically mentioned, and it’s notable that he won 12 months ago after a similar absence. Jamie Spencer, who is 1-1 on him, takes the ride and his mount should get the fast pace he needs to show his best given the size of the field.

John Gosden is one trainer who never seems to be out of form, with seven winners coming in the last fortnight alone, and he looks to have found a good opportunity for MILL SPRINGS to follow up her recent Chepstow maiden success in the 1m4f handicap for fillies run earlier on the card (3.55pm).

This is the daughter of Shirocco’s first venture into handicap company and she doesn’t too badly treated at all on an opening mark of 77, though she needs to improve again. That seems very likely given she’s had just four starts, is unexposed over this trip and her breeding – she’s a sister to a useful 1m4f winner and a half-sister to Group 2 winner Monturani. Three-year-olds have won the last nine runnings of this race and she’s a confident selection to make it ten on the bounce, possibly at the expense of James Tate’s unexposed Brighton winner Zamani.


Salisbury 3.55, Mill Springs @ 3/1 Coral
Salisbury 4.25, Captain Cat @ 12/1 bet365

All odds were correct at time of posting.

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