Our racing guru is sticking to the all-weather for his betting fix.
It’s a job working out in advance which meetings will be on, let alone finding a winner. Having got Newbury wrong on Wednesday, I’m sticking to the all-weather for today’s nap in the shape of the Gary Moore-trained YOU’RE A GOAT – no kidding!
The beast in question caught my attention prior to his handicap debut over 1m at Kempton 10 days ago as she was potentially well treated after three quiet runs in maiden company. Having put her up the night before at 14/1 and had a little on each-way, I was gobsmacked to see her backed into 5/2 favouritism before the off. Unfortunately she failed to land the gamble, though she appeared to be getting the hang of things late on, staying on into sixth under a tender ride, and is therefore worth another chance this evening (5.10pm).
Rated just 58 (down a 1lb) and now unplaced in all four of her starts, she’s clearly one of the stable lesser lights but does have the scope and size for improvement. Furthermore, as a daughter of Notnowcato she’s likely to be seen to best effect over middle distances and given how well she was finishing off her race last time, today’s extra two furlongs could prove ideal. The 3/1 on offer looks worth paying to find out.
The Ian Williams-trained Freud landed a gamble at the Essex venue just five days ago and the six-year-old is turned out again quickly under a 6lb penalty in the 1m2f handicap (6.10pm). He’s no bigger than 5/2 to follow up but faces tougher opposition now upped in grade and I’d much rather be on ONE PEKAN. Roger Varian’s gelding hasn’t scored since August 2014, admittedly, but he is now back on the same mark as for that win and gave a strong hint he was about to take advantage when finishing a close third over an inadequate 1m here last month. He had a couple of subsequent winners immediately behind so the form looks strong and this is his favourite trip.
John Balding’s Fortinbrass has been put in as favourite for the opening 6f handicap at Southwell (12.40pm) after running well on his last three runs here, including a comfortable success over the reopposing Arizona Snow two starts back. However, he was soundly beaten by FUJIN prior to that over track and trip and that horse should be able to confirm the form on identical terms. Shaun Harris’ charge has twice run well in defeat on the Tapeta at Wolverhampton in the meantime and, clearly in the form of his life, he can bet back to winning ways now returned to Fibresand.