Today's nap is running over hurdles at Warwick.
Both of the horses I was going to put up to back today have been chalked up at short prices due to the races cutting up, so it was a case of ‘back to the drawing board.’
I was struggling for value alternatives until I came across Kim Bailey’s ABBREVIATE, who should be a fair price for the opening “national hunt” novices’ hurdle at Warwick (due off 2.10pm), with Evan Williams’ Canicallyouback helping to make the market. The latter horse is no mug and has already won one of these at Worcester two starts back. He’s been beaten since, though, and he also has to contend with a 7lb penalty, which should be enough to swing the race in favour of the selection.
As a four-year-old, he’s the baby of the field and is very light on experience having had just one career start. It’s more about potential with him and he showed plenty of that when finishing a close second behind the progressive Brave Richard in a Huntingdon bumper back in April. The winner has won a couple more bumpers since, helping to give the form a solid look, and the selection should know more of what’s required here with that run under his belt
By Derby winner Authorised he should stay further than two miles in time, but his trainer has said that he shows plenty of speed at home and is a “very good traveller” on the gallops. He also sees him as an autumn and spring horse as he likes genuine good ground and that’s exactly what he will get this afternoon. Just for good measure, the stable is in excellent form with three winners and a couple of seconds in the last fortnight from just a handful of runners.
I will mention the two original selections as some of you might want to include them in multiple bets. Both are running under penalties having won in the last few days and can be considered well in as they will no doubt go up further once they are reassessed. And it shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise to learn that both are trained by Sir Mark Prescott, who is well known for improving his horses out of all recognition and staying one step ahead of the handicapper.
His NIGHT GENERATION made a mockery of his 62 rating when landing a Lingfield handicap last Tuesday in a canter, which was following on from an effortless Carlisle success in June, and he should have no trouble landing the hat-trick in the 2m handicap at Beverley (4.10pm) under regular partner Luke Morris. The attention then turns to stablemate COTE D’AZUR, who is bidding to follow up last week’s comfortable success over 7f at Kempton in the 1m nursery (5.45pm) at Chelmsford. This is a better race, but he’s clearly improving fast and can go in again under Chris Catlin.
Of the pair, Night Generation has the easier task but he’s priced accordingly at odds-on. The double pays 2.6/1 with Coral, but the main bet this afternoon should be going on the Kim Bailey-trained horse.