Our racing expert marks your card for Tuesday's racing.
The closing three handicaps at Nottingham this evening provide today’s best bets.
The 6f handicap (7.35pm) can go the way of the William Muir-trained KING OF SPIN, one of three last-time-out winners in the field. While both Peter Park and First Wheat are respected, they were made to work hard for their wins in moderate contests, whereas the selection showed a willing attitude to repel the challenge of Outrage, a winner since, at Ffos Las 14 days ago. As that was his first run back after an 11-week break and his first since being gelded, he should be able to build on it off just a 4lb higher, with most of that taken care of by Rob Hornby’s claim. Furthermore, his stable has a 20% (9-45) strike rate at the track for a £1 level-stakes profit of £11.03.
He perhaps has most to fear from Richard Fahey’s Balance, a promising third at Ayr on his reappearance, although the daughter of Pivotal has yet to encounter ground faster than ‘good to soft’.
A field of eight have been declared for the 1m handicap (8.05pm) and while none can ruled out with total confidence, the three-year-old runners might hold sway. Of these, the well-bred La Celebs Ville deserves a win having gone close on three of her last four starts, edging up the weights as a result.
However, I just prefer the chances of fellow three-year-old ARITHMETIC, who represents the in-form Charlie Hills. He was disappointing when sent off favourite for a 1m2f conditions event at Doncaster last time, but soft ground was to blame and he is best judged on a previous second on his handicap debut at Redcar (1m, good to firm). Ground conditions should be fine for him this evening and the return to a mile against handicap rivals can allow him to continue his progress and get off the mark, hopefully.
Dean Ivory has been banging out the winners of late and his DOR’S LAW can be the latest to oblige in the closing 1m2f handicap (8.35pm). The three-year-old son of Lawman is still a maiden after five starts but has finished in the frame a couple of times, including when third over 1m3f at Lingfield last time. That run can be upgraded as she tried to serve it up to the winner a long way out, before those exertions told close home and caused her to fade near the line. This slightly shorter trip doesn’t harm her chances then and she can do better still after just five starts.
The booking of Robert Winston, who has a 24% (26-109) strike rate on the stable runners for a £1 level-stakes profit of ££22.38 in 2016, clinches the bet.