Our resident tipster is sweet on the chances of a trio of jumpers.
With some impossible-looking low-grade handicaps on offer at Beverley and nothing catching the eye on the all-weather, I’m turning to the jumps at Warwick for today’s betting fix.
The winner.co.uk Handicap Chase (due off 3.10pm) is one of two class 3s on the seven-race card and Emma Lavelle’s Highland Lodge is sure to prove popular with punters. He’s the class act in the race and is a certainty on his fourth in the 2013 Hennessy at Newbury off a 17lb higher mark. However, he’s become a frustrating character since, letting down favourite backers four times, and he may not be one to trust, despite a good record fresh.
He’s disputing favouritism this time with the Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained BELMOUNT and that horse looks the one to be on. The six-year-old rewarded favourite backers when making a winning debut over fences at Ludlow, showing a willing attitude in the process, and he possesses the scope to make up into a nice handicap chaser. Certainly, he’s at the right end of the handicap to keep progressing and he has won over hurdles here. With his stable in good form and the trainer’s son Sam doing the steering, he looks well worth a punt at 7/2.
The same trainer jockey combination team up with Fond Memory in the 2m4f Download The Winner App Handicap Chase (4.40pm) and the seven-year-old is not without a chance. He improved for the step up to this sort of trip when winning at Worcester in May and he wasn’t disgraced when third in a stronger handicap off the same mark as today’s on his next start.
However, this race marks the return to action of Martin Keighley’s classy CREEPY and his excellent record suggests he can give weight away all round. The seven-year-old has won first time out in each of the last three seasons, scoring by some 20 lengths off a 5lb lower mark at Chepstow 12 months ago. Connections have often aimed high with him – he’s run in Grade 1 races over hurdles and fences – and it’s quite possible he has further improvement in him at the age of seven, with Andrew Tinker (16% strike rate for the stable) getting the leg up for the first time.
The closing handicap hurdle for mares over 2m3f (5.10pm) looks pretty competitive, but there’s enough juice in the price of MISTRESS MOLE to warrant an interest. She gave notice she had a race of this nature in her when finishing third behind a couple of in-form and well-handicapped rivals at Wincanton in March, with the application of first-time blinkers proving the catalyst for that improved effort, and has since joined Gordon Elliott.
Reappearing at Cartmel in August, she filled the same berth in a similar contest, despite looking in need of the run beforehand, and the handicapper has kindly dropped her a 1lb since. She stays a but further than this, which can’t be said for many of her rivals, so I’d expect Richard Johnson to give her a positive ride from the front to make use of her stamina. Hopefully she can make all.