How Profitable Is It Betting On Patrick Mahomes Every Week?
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Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes might well be the next Tom Brady.
But he’s already achieved a significant amount of NFL success just being the second Patrick Mahomes. The son of former major-league pitcher Pat Mahomes will aim to lead the Chiefs to back-to-back Super Bowl titles on Sunday at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.
The last quarterback to win back-to-back rings? You guessed it. Brady in Super Bowls 38 & 39.
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Super Bowl 55 will be just the 54th game — and start — of Mahomes’ pro career. He and the Chiefs have been holding as 3-point favorites over Brady and the Buccaneers since the game line was set after the conference championships. The total is 56 at PointsBet. The Chiefs are -165 on the moneyline at that site, while the underdog Buccaneers are +145 at William Hill.
Mahomes has enjoyed considerable success against the spread in the NFL in his career, going 31-20-2. That means if you bet $100 on Mahomes and Chiefs ATS for each game of his career, you’d be up an even $1,000. That accounts for the industry-standard line of -110 on spread bets.
Point spreads differ among different sites weekly. For our research, we used the Las Vegas ATS consensus numbers posted at Pro Football Reference for each of Mahomes’ games as our guidepost.
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Mahomes’ Profit Margin Tops Brady’s
The average weekly return on Mahomes — who is 58.5% ATS in his career — is slightly better for bettors than that of betting on Brady. Anyone wagering on Brady each week of his pro career as part of their NFL beting strategy would be up $5,580 using our formula, but it’s taken 343 games to get there.
Our would-be Mahomes’ bettors have netted $18.67 per game, while those backing Brady have made a $17.05 weekly profit. At Mahomes’ current weekly pace ATS, his bettors would surpass the current “winnings” of Brady’s after just 311 games.
Mahomes made his NFL debut on Dec. 31, 2017, for the 9-6 Chiefs. Mahomes completed 22 of 35 passes for 284 yards without a touchdown. The Chiefs were 3-point road underdogs at Devner. Kansas City was locked into the No. 4 spot in the AFC as a wild-card team and Andy Reid emptied his bench.
Mahomes helped lead the Chiefs to a 27-24 victory. The next week, Alex Smith was back behind center as Kansas City in the wild-card round. The Chiefs were unable to hold off Derrick Henry and the Titans, blowing a 21-3 lead before losing 22-21.
At the time, Broncos linebacker Von Miller made his call on Mahomes being a force in the AFC West and across the NFL.
“He’s great,” Miller said. “He’s the quarterback of the future for the Chiefs.”
That victory was also Mahomes’ first as an NFL underdog. He remains undefeated ATS when being given points as a pro quarterback at 5-0-1.
Mahomes Enjoys Immense Postseason Success
One area where Mahomes has nearly matched Brady’s early-career success is in the postseason. Mahomes has won six of seven career postseason starts. His one loss came to, you guessed it, Brady and the Patriots in a 37-31 overtime defeat in the 2018 season AFC Championship Game.
Brady won his first nine career postseason starts — which included three Super Bowls over five seasons — before falling to the Denver Broncos in the 2005 Divisional Playoffs.
Mahomes is a strong 5-2 in the postseason ATS. This season, the Chiefs failed to cover the 7.5-point line in their 22-17 Divisional Round victory over Cleveland. That was likely due to the fact that Mahomes was injured and removed from the game midway in the third quarter. Chad Henne came in and delivered on a crucial late-game drive to ice the victory. Kansas City then crushed the 3-point spread in a 38-24 victory over Buffalo in the AFC Championship Game.
The best season for Mahomes backers came in 2019, when the Chiefs opened at +700 to win the Super Bowl and had a preseason win total of 10.5 games. Mahomes went 12-4-1 ATS while missing a pair of games during Kansas City’s championship run.
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Mahomes and the Chiefs are known for their high-octane offensive output. This past season, Kansas City averaged an NFL-best 29.6 PPG during the regular season and 30 PPG in the playoffs. In Mahomes’ three full seasons, Kansas City’s offense has scored 31 PPG during the regular season and 34.3 PPG in the postseason.
But those who would have backed the over each week hold just a 28-24-1 edge in Mahomes’ career.
Sports betting remains illegal in Missouri, however. Hometown Chiefs fans who want to legally back Mahomes on Sunday will find the closest opportunities in Iowa or Illinois.