Latest CFP Rankings Reward LSU & Longshots Oregon, Minnesota
The biggest question for fans of college football betting wondering how their futures bets would look in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings has been answered. With LSU, Ohio State and Clemson the obvious top three, it was all eyes on the No. 4 spot after Alabama’s home loss to the Tigers. Another SEC squad took its place, with one-loss Georgia moving into the top four despite a bad home loss to South Carolina. Here’s how the rest of the rankings shook out.
College Football Playoff Rankings & Title Odds
|Team||Current Odds||Odds Rank|
|2. Ohio State||+225||T-1|
|9. Penn State||+5000||8|
|16. Notre Dame||+50000||T-15|
Why Don’t Title Odds Match CFP Rankings?
As we’ll note every week, it’s not the CFP committee’s job to forecast future performance. These members are basing the rankings solely off what teams have done to this point. That’s why Minnesota moved up to No. 8 with no consideration of tough upcoming games against Iowa and a potential Big Ten title showdown against Ohio State.
Clemson moved up two spots with both Penn State and Alabama losing, but the No. 3 CFP ranking doesn’t reflect the respect the Tigers have been getting at sportsbooks all season. Clemson is still the betting favorite to win the National Championship, but this week it’s joined by OSU as a co-favorite with +225 odds.
With these key differences in mind, here’s where we think the value is coming off the CFP rankings entering Week 12.
3 CFP Rankings 2019 Betting Tips
1. Duck Hunt: Oregon is No. 6 in the CFP rankings and has +4000 odds to win the title. That’s just slightly better than Penn State (+5000), even though PSU still has to play Ohio State and Oregon probably won’t be challenged until the Pac 12 title game against Utah. If Oregon wins a conference championship and LSU wins the SEC, it’ll be tough to place Alabama or Georgia ahead of a 12-1 Ducks team that lost a close game to Auburn in Week 1.
2. Geaux Tigers: Speaking of LSU, the Tigers are still third in betting odds at +275. Now that they’re No. 1 in the CFP rankings, it seems likely they’d get in even with a loss in the SEC Championship to a Georgia team this committee clearly likes a lot. LSU already has three great wins on the resume and just proved it can beat any team in the nation with the win at Alabama. Still a hint of value there.
3. Go-for Gophers: Finally, a little respect for unbeaten Minnesota. The Gophers move up to No. 8 after beating a Penn State team this committee ranked No. 4 last week. Their odds are incredibly long at +10000 entering this week’s game at Iowa, where there’s an opportunity to pick up a second straight quality win. DraftKings gives the Gophers +650 odds to make the CFP, which might as well be the moneyline for a likely forthcoming Big Ten title game against Ohio State. Not horrible for a team that just upset Penn State in convincing fashion.
New Year’s Six Games
CFP Semifinals: The semifinals are split between the Fiesta Bowl and Peach Bowl this year.
Sugar Bowl: The Sugar Bowl gets the best SEC and Big 12 teams not in the playoff.
Rose Bowl: Like the Sugar Bowl, conference tie-ins rule this game, which will pit the best Big Ten and Pac-12 teams not in the playoff.
Orange Bowl: The ACC will be represented, and then the bowl picks from SEC, Big Ten or Notre Dame.
Cotton Bowl: No conference tie-ins, so two at-large teams, likely including the best of the Group of Five.
CFP Championship History
Inaugurated in 2014 to replace the Bowl Championship Series, the CFP uses a 13-member committee to determine the four teams that will play in two national semifinals, which feed into the championship game. The semifinals are rotated among six top bowls, with the other four games receiving marquee matchups when not part of the CFP.
For the 2019-20 season, the semifinals are the Peach and Fiesta Bowls, with the national championship slated for New Orleans on Jan. 13. Getting there is a season-long chase, not just for teams, but also for bettors, who watch odds fluctuate from week to week and try to judge which four teams will hear their names called by the committee on selection day.
Recent CFP Champions