What are the best bets at Newmarket on Sunday?
It’s 1000 Guineas day at Newmarket and here are my thoughts on the Classic and the three other races being shown live on Channel 4.
13:50 Qipco Supporting British Racing Stakes (Handicap), 1m4f
Bookmakers have put Charlie Appleby’s Oceanographer in as 2/1 favourite and this progressive stayer, who won his final two starts last season, looks sure to go well. However, he might just need his first run back and this is a handicap besides, so he might struggle to give nearly a stone to SNOANO. He has slipped down to a good mark after showing very little last term and, having joined Tim Easterby for the start of this campaign, he showed his best form for a long time when second at Thirsk 15 days ago. On that evidence he can definitely win races for his new stable off his current mark, and BetVictor’s 8/1 that it happens today is worth taking.
14:25 Charm Spirit At Tweenhills In 2017 Dahlia Stakes (Fillies’ Group 2), 1m1f
John Gosden won this contest in 2012 with Izzy Top and he’s bidding to do the same with that horse’s half-sister Jazzy Top, who won the Pretty Polly Stakes (1m2f) at this meeting 12 months ago. After running a fine fifth in the Epsom Oaks, she went on to land a Group 2 at Deauville before chasing home Covert Love in a Group 1 at the Arc meeting. That’s just about the best form on offer but the drop back to nine furlongs is not ideal on the drying ground and she might need her first run back. At just 13/8, she’s opposable.
Instead, let’s take a flyer each-way on the David Elsworth-trained ARABIAN QUEEN at 12/1 with bet365, who go a quarter the odds as opposed to the standard fifth. She is actually the top rated horse in the race courtesy of last season’s Juddmonte victory from Golden Horn and she was also successful (by four lengths no less) in a Group 3 at Epsom on her reappearance over this sort of trip and under today’s pilot Silvestre De Sousa. The Brazilian is likely to give her a positive ride from the front, as is her style, and he could make all if he gets the fractions right.
15:00 longholes.com Rehab And Pre-Training Handicap, 6f
A competitive handicap but I keep coming back to Kevin Ryan’s TERUNTUM STAR, who is not an original choice as Hills’ 6/1 favourite but is likely better than a handicapper and may well be able to follow up his comfortable success over course and distance at the Craven meeting. That race was run at a good gallop and the form looks strong, so a 6lb rise looks more than fair. He wouldn’t have to improve much from his current rating of 101 to make into a Pattern performer when conditions are suitable. That’s the key with him as he’s better with some cut in the ground – though he has won on a faster surface – and he’ll get that this afternoon with ‘good to soft’ forecast. Ryan Moore takes over in the saddle and that’s another positive. You can of course make a case for several others but the selection looks to have a better than 6/1 chance of winning, so why bother.
15:40 Qipco 1000 Guineas Stakes (Fillies’ Group 1) (203rd Running) (British Champions Series), 1m
Aidan O’Brien has three runners in a race he has surprisingly only won twice previously, including the red-hot favourite Minding, and you can read whether I think she will win here.
Fancy some free bets? Back a winner at 4/1 or bigger in any of the above races with bet365 and they will give you a free bet to the same stake (up to £50 per customer per race) on the next race shown live on Channel 4.
Good luck all!
All odds were correct at time of posting.