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Newmarket Thursday tips – best bets for the ITV4 races

We've a tip for each of the ITV4-televised races at Newmarket this afternoon

Fresh from an 11/1 winner yesterday, our racing expert has run the rule over this afternoon's four televised races from Newmarket.

1:50 6f (Row) bet365.com Handicap (Class 2) (3yo 0-100)
The booking of Ryan Moore for Music Society is clearly a positive but that has certainly been factored into his price and given he looked an awkward ride when last seen out on the all-weather, I’m happy to swerve him at just 5/2.

It’s 11/2 bar him and while you can make a case of sorts for all, I think Hills’ 25/1 about GREEN POWER is on the big side. The son of Kheleyf was at his best in the early part of his juvenile campaign, winning a Nottingham novice at this trip (the runner-up Raydiance won his next two starts and is now rated 102), and then almost following up under a penalty at Haydock. His trainer John Gallagher said after his Nottingham win that he’s better on soft, due off him being a big horse, and that he’ll make a “cracking three-year-old sprinter.” So, with James Doyle taking a rare ride for the stable, he has to be worth a small each-way interest at the odds. UPDATE – the selection is friendless in the market this morning – out to 40/1 – and that suggests he is going to need today’s race.

2:25 1m (Row) bet365 Wood Ditton Maiden Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 3) (3yo)
Good luck if you’re betting on this as none of the 19 runners have seen racecourse action and it’s anyone’s guess what might happen. That means we’re having to rely on trainer reputations, pedigrees and the market, perhaps the best guide of all given no winner since 2009 has gone off bigger than 13/2, to try and identify the winner. So the best advice is to wait until about half an hour before the off when it’ll be clearer which horses are fancied.

Should SURYA come in for support, it could be worth paying notice as John Gosden’s colt has a pedigree to die for, being by Frankel out of Oaks winner Sariska, and he’s a half-brother Snow Moon who scored on his first start as a three-year-old, albeit he’d run once as a juvenile.

3:00 1m (Row) bet365 Craven Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 1) (3yo)
Last year’s winner Brando is bidding to go back-to-back and given that he went on to Group 1 success and has had a wind operation since finishing sixth in another Group 1 on Champions Day, he could be in for another good season. I’m loathe to go against him here but when Andre Fabre brings one over it’s worth taking notice and his LE BRIVIDO is going to take an awful lot of beating.

The French raider sets the clear form standard on his short head second in the French Guineas and subsequent Jersey Stakes success, overcoming a wretched draw on each occasion. He’s been off since and is dropping back to 6f, but he is reported to be in top form by his legendary trainer and scored easily over this trip on his reappearance last season. Hills go a standout 11/4 at the time of writing and I suspect he’ll be nearer 2/1 by the off.

3:35 1m (Row) bet365 Craven Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 1) (3yo)
ROARING LION is very short with no bigger than 4/7 on offer at the time of writing, but that’s easy to understand as John Gosden’s colt is at least 6lb clear of his rivals on official ratings and is a course and distance winner, having won the Royal Lodge in September. The form of that race was given a major boost when the neck second Nelson won the Derby trial at Leopardstown last weekend and while this is his first run back, he’s reportedly not missed a day’s work this spring and has been lighting up the home gallops.

I see no reason to oppose him here, although I won’t be backing him at odds-on, and the obvious one for the forecast is Glorious Journey. He’s 2-2 for Charlie Appleby, who saddled Soliloquy to land yesterday’s Nell Gwyn, and was always in control when making all in a French Group 3 on his final start, albeit against just three rivals.

SELECTIONS

Newmarket 1.50, Green Power each-way @ 40/1 Hills (1/5 odds, 1.2.3)
Newmarket 2.25, Surya @ 11/2 bet365
Newmarket 3.00, Le Brivido @ 11/4 Hills
Newmarket 3.35, Roaring Lion @ 4/7 bet365

All odds were correct at time of posting.

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