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Saturday Horse Racing Tips – best bets for Goodwood, Newmarket & Beverley (TV races)

Our racing expert marks your card for Saturday's TV action.

It’s a busy day’s racing and here’s my take on the eight Channel 4-televised races.

14:45 Goodwood – Prestige Stakes (Fillies’ Group 3), 7f
A competitive Group 3 for juveniles fillies and four of the nine runners ran in the Sweet Solera (another Group 3 over this trip) last time, including the runner-up and current favourite Grecian Light. She wasn’t that far in front of On Her Toes (third) and Urban Fox (fourth) at HQ, so I’m not sure why she’s as short as 2/1 to win this.

He may still win but there is value to be had in backing Richard Hannon’s PROMISING at Paddy Power’s 9/1. She’s the only maiden in the field but has run two cracking races in defeat, including when just held in an 18-runner maiden at this track on her debut despite a poor draw and not enjoying a clear run. She also met with traffic problems last time out at Newbury where she was beaten narrowly into third, and an ordinary maiden is hers for the taking. But connections clearly think she’s worth a shot at this higher level and that is also borne out by her her fancy entries this autumn. She needs to settle a bit better than last time but she’s improving and today’s extra furlong should be right up her street.

15:00 Newmarket – Eddie Stobart Industrial Sector Handicap, 7f
This looks tricky but it could be worth siding with Brian Meehan’s KITAABY on his hat-trick bid after wins at Newbury and Leicester, where he made all to score comfortably by two lengths. A 6lb rise for that success seems fair and now he’s found the winning habit it will take a good one to get past him. Likely favourite Summer Chorus only just scraped over 6f here last time and needs to prove her stamina for this extra furlong, while top weight Shawaahid hasn’t always looked straightforward and flashed his tail when winning over an extended mile at Wolverhampton earlier this month. Still, he rates the main danger to the selection, who is a very backable 11/2 with Betfair.

15:10 Beverley – totescoop6 Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes (Listed), 5f
Beverley’s showcase sprint has attracted a decent field of ten and there are some familiar names amongst them. Muthmir, who has been put in as 11/4 favourite is a Group 2 winner (twice) and has been keeping good company since finishing third in last season’s Prix De l’Abbaye. He is joined by a couple of veteran sprinters in Maarek, last year’s winner, and Kingsgate Native, who delayed his retirement when turning back the years to land a conditions event at Nottingham last time. Last year’s runner-up Line Of Reason also has to enter calculations.

However, I fancy we might see a surprise result with rank outsider ALPHA DELPHINI (16/1 Betfair) surely holding stronger claims than his price tag would suggest. A late-maturing type, he is enjoying a breakthrough season at five and is bidding for a hat-trick after wins at York and Ascot, having scored at Musselburgh on his reappearance back in April. They were both handicaps and he scored by narrow margins each time, but he always saves a bit for himself (so he’s never going to win by far) and the fact he’s been put up 8lb for the latest success shows what a strong race it was. His trainer Bryan Smart is enjoying a tremendous month and was the subject of a Stable Tour this week, in which he said of the selection: “he’s incredibly well and looks very happy.” At best over this minimum trip – he has recorded form figures of 151311 over it, with one of the wins coming over track and trip as a juvenile – he thoroughly deserves a crack at this level and won’t be disgraced by any means. Watch him come late on the scene.

15:20 Goodwood – Goodwood Revival Stakes (Handicap), 7f
A wide open handicap but, as it’s better to be drawn near the far rail over 7f here (unless it’s soft), it could pay to concentrate on those horses drawn in single figures. Of these David Simcock’s Can’t Change It has the plum draw in stall one and the fact he is a winner over track and trip is another thing in his favour. But he’s probably weighted up to his best and that might not be the case with Roger Varian’s CERTIFICATE, who is BetVictor’s 5/1 favourite and rightly so. Lightly-raced for a five-year-old, he produced a career-best when winning a competitive Doncaster handicap over this trip 14 days ago, giving the impression he would be up to winning at Listed level, at least. He may well be able to cope with a 6lb rise then and while the stable has been quiet in recent weeks, there have still be some notable successes, with Postponed’s King George win the highlight. The selection certainly looked in rude health on Town Moor and will have the services of the in-form Andrea Atzeni. Jockey experience is crucial around here and the Italian rides the track better than most with all his rides since 2012 yielding a £1 level-stakes profit of £17.50. He can make the most of a good draw in stall six.

15:35 Newmarket – Fly Stobart Air Handicap, 1m5f
Competitive stuff and plenty can be fancied including the progressive Walpole, who has been well placed by Hugo Palmer to win three of his four starts on the level, not to mention a Huntingdon bumper. However, today’s opposition is far stronger than he’s used to and he may struggle to give 4lb to the year older MASTERPAVER. Richard Fahey’s charge has held his form remarkably well since winning back-to-back handicaps at Haydock in the spring and was less than a length behind the reopposing Yorkidding over 1m4f at Ascot last. Today’s terms give him a right chance of reversing that form and the longer trip should help too as he’s shaping into a real stayer and has been given an entry in the Cesarewitch run here in October. The ground may have gone against him by then as he likes to hear his hooves rattle and the forecast good to firm is ideal. His stable record on the July Course is the clincher for a bet with the 155 runners since 2012 yielding 26 winners (17%) for a whopping £1 level-stakes profit of £52.38. Take Betfred’s 8/1 as it’s standout.

15:55 Goodwood – Lewis Badges 1832 March Stakes (Listed), 1m6f
Platitude had his path up the inside rail blocked when attempting to launch his challenge in the Group 3 Gordon Stakes run here at the Glorious meeting, though he wouldn’t have won and has his stamina to prove over this longer. At just 11/4, I have to look elsewhere for the winner and I’ve stopped at John Gosden’s MR SINGH, who is the top-rated runner in the field courtesy of his second in a Group 2 at last year’s Royal Ascot meeting and subsequent Group 3 success over 1m5f at Newmarket. He’s not been sighted in a couple of runs this term, but he’s been gelded since the last of those and if that’s done the trick he should prove too good for today’s rivals under Frankie Dettori, who is 2-3 on him. Coral go a standout 11/2.

16:10 Newmarket – Stobart Club And Shop Hopeful Stakes (Listed), 6f
Richard Fahey’s EASTERN IMPACT (3/1 Hills) has steadily been coming to the boil this season, culminating in a fine second in a Group 3 at the Curragh earlier this month when he made progressive winner Toscanini work hard, and he is fancied to take advantage of this drop in class. Of his eight rivals, Naadirr could give him most to do. Marco Botti’s five-year-old returned to winning form in a conditions stakes at Doncaster last, but he was beaten by the selection, albeit by a neck, in a Group 3 at Ascot last October.

16:30 Goodwood – Doom Bar Celebration Mile (Group 2), 1m

A disappointing turnout of just five for this Group 1 and the two three-year-old runners may dominate. The Classic generation have won six of the last eight renewals and they are represented this time by Sir Michael Stoute’s THIKRIYAAT, who is 3-4 this season with one of the successes coming over track and trip, and Clive Cox’s Zonderland, a comfortable winner of a Salisbury Group 3 last time, the form of whicheas devalued by the red-hot favourite flopping. The former is therefore just preferred and quite rightly in my book heads the market, but a best price of 15/8 with Paddy Power hardly gets the punting juices flowing. With none of the older horses making much appeal either, I may well sit this out.

Fancy some free bets? Back a winner at 4/1 or bigger in any of the above races with bet365 and they will give you a free bet to the same stake (up to £50 per customer, per race) on next race shown live on Channel 4.

All odds were correct at time of posting.

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