What are the best bets in Saturday's TV races?
The Betfred Cesarewitch is one of seven races being shown live on Channel 4 this afternoon and they all come under the scrutiny of our racing expert here.
14:20 Newmarket – Dubai Business Internships Fillies’ Nursery, 7f
A highly competitive nursery and a case can be made for plenty, but MUTHMIRA (8/1 Sky Bet*) might have the touch of class required to win it. Simon Crisford’s filly put an odds-on defeat at Ascot (got trapped behind the weakening leader at a crucial stage) behind her when making all to win a decent Yarmouth maiden last time, beating the well regarded Gheeda more comfortably than the official length-and-a-quarter winning margin would suggest. That was over 6f but she wasn’t stopping at the line and moves into handicap company off what looks a very fair mark of 81. Her trainer has a 28% strike rate with juveniles this season and today’s booked rider Silvestre De Sousa has a near 1-2 strike rate (8-17) on such runners. Michael Bell’s Parsnip is feared most.
*Sky Bet are refunding losing stakes on the 2nd or 3rd in this race as a free bet up to £25
14:35 York – Download The Coral App Stakes (Handicap), 1m2f 88y
Saeed bin Suroor’s horses were wrong for a large part of this season but they are flying now and a treble on Thursday made it nine wins in the last fortnight for the Newmarket trainer. His GREAT ORDER can keep the good run going with a victory here as he was staying on strongly when only beaten by a short head over a mile at Newmarket last time and will relish the step back up in trip, having won over this far at Leicester in July (form has worked out well). With every likelihood there is more to come from this progressive sort after just five starts, he can defy a 5lb rise and provide the underrated Kevin Stott with another winner for the stable, with his current strike rate standing at 29% (19-66). Take Ladbrokes’ 5/2.
14:55 Newmarket – Dubai 100 Autumn Stakes (Group 3), 1m
With Aidan O’Brien in such red-hot form it might be foolish to look beyond his representative here, The Anvil, who stepped up in previous efforts when only just failing to peg back Best Of Days in a Group 2 over course and distance last time. He’s clearly a smart maiden and should come into his own over middle distances next season (he has entries in the 2000 Guineas and Derby), while in the more immediate future he holds an entry in the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy over a mile. He’s a worthy favourite but Simon Crisford’s RODAINI also holds an entry at Doncaster in two weeks time and has developed into a smart horse, winning all four of his starts, including a 7f Listed event at the St Leger meeting. He showed battling qualities on that occasion to repel the well regarded Salsabeel by a neck with subsequent Group 3 winner Larchmont Lad in third, and his trainer is adamant he will stay a mile. He certainly won’t give up his unbeaten record without a fight and is a shade of value at the 11/2 on offer at Paddy Power.
15:10 York – coral.co.uk Rockingham Stakes (Listed), 6f
Fillies have held their own in this contest down the years and Andrew Balding’s Perfect Angel heads a trio of representatives this time around. She was disappointing when fancied at Salisbury two starts back but bounced back nicely in the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes on her latest start, keeping on nicely into second. Her trainer hinted at a step up to 7f next so it’s a little surprising to see back over 6f and I just wonder whether one or two of these might have too much toe for her. Kevin Burke’s LOST AT SEA certainly didn’t look short of speed when making a winning debut at Doncaster despite running green, and looking like the outing would do him the world of good. He missed the Mill Reef as it came too soon and has reportedly impressed in his home work since. A £80,000 colt out of a 6f winner, he can make the necessary improvement to keep his unbeaten record intact, though an each-way bet is suggested at bet365’s 10/1 (they are alone in offering one quarter the odds).
15:30 Newmarket – Dubai Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1), 7f
Aidan O’Brien has won two of the last three renewals (four overall) and he’s odds-on to add another with his Churchill no bigger than 8/11 to win what would be five on the bounce. With the stable in all-conquering form, the bookies may well be right and he’s by far the most likely winner. However, there may have been an overreaction to his impressive success in the Group 1 National Stakes last time as the runner-up Mehmas didn’t appear to stay and the third Lockheed is probably not as good as his stablemate RIVET, who could well give the favourite a fright.
William Haggas’ charge made it two wins from three runs in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes last time and while to hit top gear in that 7f contest, the slow pace was against him and he always looked likely to collar the reopposing Thunder Snow inside the final furlong. He’d have no trouble getting a mile and probably wants it, but with the Ballydoyle second string Lancaster Bomber likely on pacemaker duties his stamina should come into play. Sadly there are just seven runners, which makes an each-way play at bet365′ 10/1 less appealing, so backing him at 7/2 in BetVictor’s ‘without Churchill’ market looks the way to go – the bet will cop if he wins or finishes second to the O’Brien hotpot.
15:45 York – Coral Sprint Trophy (Handicap), 6f
Michael Dods has won two of the last three runnings and his sole representative Get Knotted, a keeping on second in the Ayr Silver Cup last time, is therefore entitled to plenty of respect. He’s entitled to beat the Ayr winner Roodee on today’s revised terms and looks sure to give backers a run for their money, but this is ultra competitive and I can’t resist a few quid each-way on Mick Appleby’s POYLE VINNIE at a huge looking 28/1 with Paddy Power. A half-length runner-up in last year’s Ayr Gold Cup off a 5lb higher mark than today’s, he looked up against it in this year’s renewal from his high draw, and that was before he reared as the stalls opened and gave them all a head start. Previously he’d shown his turn was near when finishing a close third at Chester, despite being stopped in his run a furlong out, and he might have got lucky with the draw in stall four. Certainly low numbers have been favoured in a couple of big-field 6f handicaps run here this season, with the main action occurring on the far side of the track, and a repeat is likely as there are plenty of fancied / pacey types drawn in low numbers this afternoon.
16:10 Newmarket – Betfred Cesarewitch (Heritage Handicap), 2m2f
The second leg of the autumn double has been a bookies’ benefit in recent times with only two winning favourites since 2000 and some real shock results (winners at 25/1, 50/1 and 66/1 twice in the last five runnings. That hardly makes you want to support this year’s market leaders of St Michel, Starchitect and Sweet Selection, who are all at single-figure odds, and especially as they’ve all been handed high draws (32, 26 & 23 respectively). That may seem a strange thing to say about a race run over the marathon trip of 2m2f, but the results don’t lie and it’s no coincidence that 13 of the last 16 winners were drawn 18 or lower. That’s not to say they can’t win and I’ve a very healthy respect for the David Pipe-trained Starchitect, who has been laid out for this and is on a good mark, but he’s priced accordingly now at just 9/1.
It’s easy to make a case for a plethora of horses at bigger odds and even down to the 50/1 shots, but I keep coming back to the David Simcock-trained THE CASHEL MAN, who has attracted strong support in the last 24 hours – he was a 16/1 shot when I started writing this piece – and is still a fair each-way price at RaceBet’s 12/1. It’s easy to see why as he has stamina aplenty, as he showed when scoring over 2m here last season, and has run some solid races in defeat this term, including when runner-up in the recent trial over course and distance. Still unexposed as a stayer and on a workable mark, he’s clearly been trained with this in mind and his trainer knows what it takes to win it, having sent out Darley Sun to land a gamble in 2009. He’s left nothing to chance by booking the excellent William Buick to ride and he would have been delighted with the four-year-olds draw in stall eight. I’m struggling to see him finishing out of the five places on offer.
Fancy some free bets? Back a winner at 4/1 or bigger in any of the above Channel 4-televised races with bet365 and they will give you a free bet to the same stake (up to £50 per customer per race) on the next race shown live on Channel 4.
Newmarket 2.20, Parsnip @ 8/1 bet365 (Muthmira is a non-runner)
York 2.35. Great Order @ 3/1 Betway
Newmarket 2.55, Rodaini @ 11/2 Paddy Power
York 3.10, Lost At Sea each-way @ 10/1 bet365 (1/ 4 odds, 1.2.3)
Newmarket 3.30, Rivet (w/o Churchill) @ 7/2 BetVictor
York 3.45, Poyle Vinnie each-way @ 28/1 Paddy Power (¼ odds, 220.127.116.11)
Newmarket 4.10, The Cashel Man each-way @ 12/1 RaceBets (1 4 odds, 18.104.22.168.5)