Senate Races 2020 Odds Tracker: Republicans Favored In Georgia
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Republicans remain favored to win both Georgia races for the US Senate and retain their majority, according to odds from British bookmaker Ladbrokes. However, those odds have tightened in the last week.
The GOP has -400 odds to finish with over 50 seats and +275 to have exactly 50 seats, which would mean losing both Georgia runoffs on Jan. 5, 2021. Last week, those odds were -600 and +325. The change is due to shifting odds in the runoff between Democrat Jon Ossoff and incumbent Republican David Perdue. Ossoff has move from +225 to +200 and Perdue from -300 to -275.
On Election Day, the bookmaker gave the Republicans +188 odds of keeping their majority in the Senate and -137 to lose the majority. The count now stands 50-48 in favor of the Republicans.
We already knew there would be one runoff, as Georgia was holding a special election for the Senate seat held by Republican Kelly Loeffler, who was appointed. She held off a strong challenge from fellow Republican Doug Collins and faces Democrat Raphael Warnock, the top vote-getter in that special election in November.
In the regularly scheduled Senate election in the state, Ossoff forced a runoff with Perdue, who was a -138 favorite in the race. Perdue received just under the required 50% + 1 needed to secure victory. Ossoff, while buoyed by Joe Biden’s win in the state, drew about 100,000 fewer votes than the President-elect.
Keep in mind, bookmakers are trying to balance public money when they set odds not just indicate who they think will win, and that includes political odds. In 2020, political odds received more discussion than at any other time in history in the United States, with major networks discussing them throughout the campaign and on election night.
Latest Georgia Senate Race Odds
|Raphael Warnock (D)||+163|
|Kelly Loeffler (R)||-225|
Updated Nov. 18
Warnock took the highest percentage of the votes with 33%, while Loeffler had the second most with 26%, well ahead of Collins, a firebrand and favorite of Donald Trump. The total vote breakdown between Democratic and Republican candidates was close. Polls before the Nov. 3 election showed Warnock slightly ahead of Loeffler in a potential runoff, and those afterward show a close race as well.
#GAsen Runoffs:— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 18, 2020
Warnock (D) 49% (+1)
Loeffler (R-inc) 48%
Ossoff (D) 49%
Perdue (R-inc) 49%
InsiderAdvantage/FOX5 Atlanta, LV, 11/16
|Jon Ossoff (D)||+200|
|David Perdue (R)||-275|
Updated Nov. 18
The odds on Nov. 3 were +100 for Ossoff and -138 for Perdue, so these odds mark a concession from bookmakers of how close Perdue came to winning the first time around, falling a few ticks shy of securing the 50% + 1 needed (he had 49.7% of the vote). It is a bit surprising to see substantively different odds for th two races as few pundits expect voters to split their tickets.
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How Did Oddsmakers Do On Other Senate Races
In 2020 U.S. Senate races, the favorite was 11-2. To recap:
Alabama: Republican Tommy Tuberville was the big favorite to unseat Doug Jones at -1000 and he won handily.
Alaska: Republican Dan Sullivan was a -500 favorite. The race wasn't called until more than a week after Election Day as a large segment of the vote couldn't be counted until Nov. 10. He led Al Gross in early returns by a big margin, and Gross was unable to make up ground.
Arizona: Democrat Mark Kelly was a -500 favorite to unseat Martha McSally and he did in a fairly tight race.
Colorado: John Hickenlooper was the biggest Democratic favorite on the board at -1000 and he delivered a decisive win over incumbent Republican Cory Gardner.
Iowa: Late polling flipped incumbent Republican Joni Ernst to favorite status and that polling was spot-on. She won over challenger Theresa Greenfield.
Kansas: Republican Roger Marshall, a -450 favorite, rolled over Barbara Bollier on Election Day.
Kentucky: Republican Mitch McConnell, a -1600 favorite, was never truly challenged by Democrat Amy McGrath despite early polling and optimism from her side.
Maine: Far and away the biggest miss by bookmakers, who underestimated Republican Susan Collins, making her a +225 underdog to Sara Gideon, who was -300. Gideon led in virtually every poll, often by a big number, and Biden easily carried the state. However, Mainers returned Collins to the Senate as the state saw a large number of split ticket voting.
Michigan: Democrat Gary Peters was a -300 favorite to win his seat and he held on in a tough race over John James.
Montana: Once thought a great opportunity for a Democratic pickup, Montana fizzled. Oddsmakers flipped Republican Steve Daines to favorite status during the summer and were right. He entered Election Day -200 and won.
North Carolina: Another significant miss for the oddsmakers. Democrat Cal Cunningham was a favorite throughout the cycle and led incumbent Republican Thom Tillis in most polls (though they were tight).
South Carolina: Oddsmakers never seemed overly swayed by polling showing this as a tight race between incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham and challenger Jaime Harrison, and Graham was a -300 favorite on Election Day. He won easily.
Texas: Bookmakers never bought into a blue wave in Texas taking down incumbent John Cornyn, and the -600 favorite rolled to victory over challenger MJ Hegar.