SLIPS: Super Bowl Bettors Hitting Chiefs-49ers Over Hard
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Veteran sports reporter Josh Katzenstein, who has covered the Detroit Lions and New Orleans Saints, takes a deep dive into the weekend’s NFL betting slips, including where the money went, the bad beats, amazing covers, stunning parlays and more.
People still have plenty of time for Super Bowl betting but six days ahead of the matchup for the Lombardi Trophy, one thing is abundantly clear: Sportsbooks will be rooting for a low-scoring game.
The total for the game between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs opened at 51.5 points last week, but it has already climbed to 55 at William Hill.
Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading at William Hill US, said bettors have favored the over at a 7-to-1 ratio compared to the under. Including parlays, it’s actually 8-to-1.
“The under bettors are in witness protection,” Bogdanovich said. “They ain’t been seen. Every bet is on the over.”
Other books have plenty of liability on the NFL betting over, too. As of Monday morning, PointsBet took 81% of tickets and 77% of the handle on the over. The total there opened at 52.5 and went to to 54.5. It was at 54 on Monday afternoon, though that number is protected with -115 on the over and -105 on the under.
SugarHouse also had the total at 54 as of Monday morning, and 70% of the tickets were on the over. Jeff Sherman, vice president of risk management for SuperBook USA, tweeted on Sunday afternoon that his book has seen 87% of tickets and 99% of the handle on the over.
Super Bowl LIV— Jeff Sherman (@golfodds) January 26, 2020
at Miami Gardens, Florida
Sunday, February 2, 2020
3:30 pm pacific - FOX
San Francisco 49ers 54.5
Kansas City Chiefs -1
spread: 67% KC
total: 87% Ov
ML: 57% SF
spread: 52% KC
total: 99% Ov
ML: 52% SF
Bettors’ love for the over is surely a combination of Patrick Mahomes leading a potent Chiefs offense and the 49ers scoring 37 points in their NFC Championship win over the Packers. Plus, there should be great weather in Miami.
”Again, it’s the masses. They bet over. That’s what they do. It’s no secret,” Bogdanovich said. “It’s just what they always have done, always will do. Obviously, you throw in the Mahomes factor and away you go.”
The Chiefs and 49ers ranked seventh and eighth, respectively, in scoring defense during the regular season, but clearly, more bettors are believing in the productive offenses. San Francisco’s offense ranked second during the regular season at 29.9 points per game and Kansas City ranked fifth at 28.2 ppg.
The Chiefs surpassed 54 total points in eight of 18 games during the season and playoffs. The 49ers’ total was 54 or higher in just six of 18 games. Bogdanovich said some sharps could be waiting to pounce on the under as the total continues to rise.
“I would say that they’re definitely waiting to see where this total goes,” he said. “I’m sure they’re waiting for it to get as high as humanly possible.”
Steady Action On Both Teams
PointsBet opened with a line of Chiefs -2.5 but a stream of action on both sides has forced the line to move a bit, moving as low as Chiefs -1. Currently, the Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites and Patrick Eichner, director of communications, said he wouldn’t be surprised if it stays there.
Bettors at PointsBet have favored the Chiefs on the spread with more than 75% of tickets and the handle on Kansas City, but sharp money on the 49ers is keeping the line from moving. On the moneyline, 55% of tickets and about 60% of the handle are on San Francisco.
“As of today, the book will be cheering for the 49ers to cover the spread and for the total to stay under whatever the closing line is,” Eichner said in an email.
SugarHouse has seen 68% of spread tickets on Chiefs -1.5, but a little more than 60% of the moneyline tickets are on the 49ers.
SuperBook USA has seen similar numbers with 67% of spread tickets on the Chiefs and 57% of moneyline tickets on the 49ers. However, it seems some sharps are favoring the 49ers there as just 52% of the spread handle is on the Chiefs.
Super Bowl Prop Favorites
Mahomes (+115) is the clear favorite for MVP honors among PlaySugarHouse bettors with 30% of the tickets. Other popular MVP picks are 49ers running back Raheem Mostert (+900) and Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (+2000), both around 12.5%.
PointsBet has liability with long shot MVP bets on 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa and Chiefs wide receiver Mecole Hardman as one bettor placed wagers on Hardman at +4000 and +5000.
Mahomes is the most bet player for anytime touchdown scorer with odds at +475 for PointsBet. Bettors would need Mahomes to score as either a runner or receiver to win the bet.
PointsBet has also seen a significant amount of action on the opening kickoff to be a touchdown at +8000.
Fun 76ers NBA Special
Any bettor knows that a “sure thing” is hard to come by, but DraftKings bettors in Pennsylvania had a shot at a “sure thing” on Saturday night.
The sportsbook offered a promotion in which bettors could place a $50 bet on the 76ers +76 in their matchup against the Lakers. The real line was 76ers +4.5, so that’s a 71.5-point difference.
The largest margin of victory in NBA history was 68 points back in 1991, so, again, this was truly a sure thing.
Philadelphia, of course, covered the giant spread and even won the game outright, 108-91. Congrats to everyone in the the Quaker State on the easy victory.
- A bettor on FanDuel turned $5 into more than $1,800 with an eight-leg, same-game parlay in the Spurs-Suns game last Monday.
- A DraftKings bettor won more than $7,000 with a $10, 12-leg parlay across two days of college basketball action.
- Another DraftKings bettor on Wednesday turned $10 into more than $1,600 with an NBA parlay, correctly picking the moneyline and total in four separate games.
A bettor in New Jersey turned $5 into $1,883.64 with this 8-leg Same Game Parlay for the Suns-Spurs game on Monday ?— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) January 23, 2020
Build yours today: https://t.co/fPkM89sHth
(H/T: @esnan46) pic.twitter.com/A5OihXJnAK
A two-day, 12-leg college basketball parlay netted one bettor over $7K on just a $10 bet ?— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) January 23, 2020
Syracuse #MakeItReign pic.twitter.com/HPHB4yU8PG
A solid win from Jon ? https://t.co/HofT9WZqNc— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) January 23, 2020