2022 AFC and NFC Championship Odds Tracker
With half as many teams to choose from than Super Bowl betting, odds to win the AFC Championship and NFC Championship have grown in handle and number of bets over the years. Winning that final game is tough, so bettors have added conference title futures to their overall NFL betting strategy. Bookies.com has been tracking AFC and NFC odds and continues to do so through the 2021 NFL season.
AFC Championship Odds
|Team||Current Odds||Preseason Odds|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+250||+250|
|New England Patriots||+1800||+1800|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+2200||+4000|
|New York Jets||+25000||+7500|
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Here are some notes on the AFC Championship odds movement:
- Sept. 21: The Chiefs saw their odds dip slightly from +225 to +250 after they lost for the second time in three games – going back to the Super Bowl – and have given up an average of 32 PPG over that span. KC’s 36-35 loss in Baltimore and the Bills’ 35-0 rout of the host Dolphins impacted these odds.
The Raiders and Broncos are the only undefeated teams left in the AFC after two weeks and lead KC and LA in the West. Their odds saw the biggest bump. Here is a look at the biggest odds moves in the race to win the AFC title after Week 2:
Team Week 2 Week 3 Trend Raiders +3500 +2200 ↑ Broncos +1500 +1000 ↑ Titans +1800 +1600 ↑ Ravens +800 +650 ↑ Dolphins +1800 +2200 ↓ Steelers +2000 +2500 ↓ Chargers +1200 +1800 ↓ Colts +2500 +4000 ↓ Bengals +5000 +8000 ↓ Jaguars +10000 +25000 ↓ Jets +10000 +25000 ↓ Texans +10000 +25000 ↓
- Aug. 31: Patriots cut Cam Newton in a surprise move, elevating rookie QB Mac Jones to starter; odds remain at +1800.
- Aug. 28: Baltimore Ravens lose starting RB J.K. Dobbins to season-ending injury but remain steady at +600 to win the AFC.
- Aug. 25: The Patriots' odds remain unchanged after the team agrees to send running back Sony Michel to the LA Rams for late round draft pick compensation. New England will likely move forward with Damien Harris and James White at RB.
- Aug. 2: The Broncos, at one time as high as +4000 to win the AFC and as low as +700, have their NFL futures odds settle at +2000 to win the conference, as it appears they’ll settle with Drew Lock or Teddy Bridgewater at QB.
- June 7: The Titans’ odds shrink dramatically – from +1700 to +900 – after the team trades for All-Pro WR Julio Jones. The odds slowly rise back to +1500 by Aug. 1.
- May 3: Denver’s odds to win the AFC Championship plummeted from +3800 to +700 after trade rumors connecting the Broncos with disgruntled Packers QB Aaron Rodgers surfaced at the NFL draft.
- April 23: The Browns’ odds drop from +1200 down to +800 after signing pass rushing DE Jadeveon Clowney.
- March 14: The Patriots add TEs Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, and WR Nelson Agholor, in a busy free agency week. Over the next 10 days, their AFC title odds drop from +2000 to +1600.
- Feb. 22: The Colts find their replacement for the retiring Philip Rivers, trading for Eagles starting QB Carson Wentz. Their AFC title odds dip slightly to +1200.
- Feb. 7: The Chiefs, two-time defending AFC champions, open as strong +250 favorites to win a third-straight conference crown.
Sept. 14: A week in which 13 underdogs covered against the spread league-wide and three of the top four teams favored to win the conference lost, rattled AFC title odds. Here is a look at the odds to win the AFC title before and after Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season:
The Buffalo Bills want to get back to the Super Bowl for the first time since the Jim Kelly era. Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens want another crack at the big game. Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns feel like their time is now. However, for all three legit AFC championship contenders, the road to the Super Bowl goes through Kansas City.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs won the AFC title in 2020 en route to the franchise’s first Super Bowl title in 50 years. They repeated in the AFC in 2021, only to be thwarted by Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl 55.
Mahomes and the Chiefs opened as prohibitive favorites at betting sites to represent the AFC in Super Bowl 2022 odds. The Bills, Ravens and Browns each aim to be the team to drop the reigning champions, while the defense-strong Broncos and offense-strong Titans have reason to believe they should be included in the conversation.
AFC Conference Trends
Home Advantage Matters: In both the AFC and NFC championship games, home-field advantage has proven advantageous. But it’s been really true on this side of the standings. Home teams have won seven of the last eight AFC title games, and 13 of the last 15.
Offense Wins Championships: The winning team in the AFC Championship has scored at least 35 points in five of the last seven title games. Of course, the winning team in all five instances had either Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes running the show.
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NFC Championship Odds
|Team||Current Odds||Preseason Odds|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+260||+300|
|Green Bay Packers||+650||+550|
|San Francisco 49ers||+650||+700|
|New Orleans Saints||+1600||+1600|
|Washington Football Team||+2300||+2400|
|New York Giants||+7500||+3700|
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Here are some notes on the NFC Championship odds movement:
- Sept. 21: There are five unbeaten teams in the NFC after two weeks of play. Four of those teams play each other this week. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers moved clear of the field in NFC title odds after they crushed the Atlanta Falcons 45-28 in Week 17. Tom Brady has 9 TD passes on the season. The second tier features a three-way tie between the Rams, 49ers and Packers. All three of those teams won in Week 2 and are 2-0 along with the Bucs.
The Rams and Bucs both saw their odds dip slightly, the Bucs to +260 from +225 and the Rams to +650 from +550. They play Sunday at Los Angeles, and the 49ers play host to the Packers Sunday night. The 2-0 Panthers are the lone wolf here and get a free pass against the Texans Thursday night in Houston. Expect much movement here next week, but these were the biggest moves after Week 2:
Team Week 2 Week 3 Trend Cowboys +1800 +1300 ↑ Cardinals +2000 +1600 ↑ Vikings +2800 +2400 ↑ Saints +1200 +1600 ↓ Eagles +2500 +4100 ↓ Giants +5000 +7500 ↓ Falcons +5000 +7500 ↓ Lions +10000 +25000 ↓
- Sept. 14: The Packers were the biggest name – in terms of preseason odds to win the NFC – to fall in Week 1. Multiple upsets rocked the board and caused significant movement.
- Sept. 7: With the start of the NFL season less than 72 hours away, prices among the favorites in the NFC experience a bit of loosening at the top, with the Bucs slipping to +300 from +275. The price on the Packers improves to +550 from +600, Meanwhile, the 49ers and Rams fall from +600 each to +650 and +700, respectively. That leaves San Francisco as the No. 3 pick in the NFC.
- Aug. 25: The Rams' odds hold steady after the team trades for Sony Michel from New England. Michel will replace the injured Cam Akers, joining Darrell Henderson Jr. in the Rams backfield.
- Aug. 22: Bettors take little from the Buccaneers’ preseason losses, a 19-14 setback to the Bengals and 34-3 whitewash from the Titans, as their NFC title odds actually improve to a leading +275. The Packers dip slightly from +550 to +600, creating a tie with the 49ers and Rams at the No. 2 spot.
- July 26: The Packers become contenders again as the team and QB Aaron Rodgers come to an agreement for the QB to play in 2021. Odds level at +600.
- May 1: The Vikings’ odds to win the NFC plummet at sportsbooks thanks in large part to the potential absence of Rodgers in Green Bay, from +2500 to +1800.
- April 29: A bombshell report that Aaron Rodgers has demanded a trade out of Green Bay causes NFC odds for the team to rise from +450 to +1000.
- April 29: Despite rumors about adding QB Deshaun Watson, the Panthers instead acquire Sam Darnold, which does cause their NFC odds to drop on betting apps, but only from +2500 to +2400. By early June it had risen back to +2500.
- March 14: Future Hall of Fame QB Drew Brees announces his retirement. The Saints’ odds to win the NFC rise, but only from +900 to +1100.
- March 13: After a flurry of re-signing players, the Buccaneers fall to +350 and take the lead in the race for the conference title.
- Feb. 7: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Green Bay Packers, who faced off in the 2021 NFC Championship, are +400 co-favorites to win the NFC in 2022, per the opening odds.
In the 2020 offseason, Tom Brady left the cozy confines of Foxborough, where he helped build the New England Patriots into one of the premier dynasties in NFL history. He landed in Tampa Bay, and he picked up where he left off.
Brady led the Bucs to the Lombardi Trophy in a thorough win over Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Prior to that win, the Bucs edged past Aaron Rodgers and the top-seeded Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship despite Rodgers outplaying Brady and Green Bay statistically dominating the game.
For the Bay teams, the 2021 offseason proved kinder to Tampa than Green. Everyone re-signed for the Bucs, making them the first defending champion in decades to return all 22 starters. Meanwhile, Rodgers protested Packers management before ultimately joining the team in training camp in what may be his final year in Titletown.
Those two teams are the NFL odds favorites in the race for the NFC Championship with the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks – all residing in the NFC West – battling to join the mix.
NFC Conference Trends
All About O: Similar to the AFC, it takes a lot of points to win conference championships, more than it takes defensive stops. Five of the last six NFC winners scored 31-plus points to clinch the Super Bowl trip, and all scored at least 26. Half the time the champs scored 37 or more.
Just Short: The Packers have lost two straight NFC title games. The last team to drop the big one three straight times was the Eagles from 2001-2003. In 2004 they won the NFC crown.