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Bill Speros for Bookies.com

By Bill Speros | | 13 mins

Tom Brady Complete Betting History: The GOAT All-Time Against The Spread

Tom Brady Complete Betting History: The GOAT All-Time Against The Spread

Tom Brady is on to Canton, but not before he heads back to Tampa Bay.

The world bet against Brady and lost big for 22 years. It suffered the ultimate Bad Beat when Brady "unretired" on Sunday night. Brady will be back with the Buccaneers this upcoming season, ending a 40-day hiatus from the NFL. Brady will try to add to his seven Super Bowl rings, 10 conference championships, and the most yards passing, completions and TD passes in NFL history. Here's a complete look at the NFL betting numbers put up by the GOAT.

Those who have backed Brady since 2001 have done well. Brady has covered in 58.1% of his 363 starts, which includes his 47 games in the postseason. He's gone 221-144-8 all time ATS. If you were able to bet $100 on Brady using the industry standard -110 ATS odds, you would be up $4,779.80. Of the NFL quarterbacks with more than 30 starts who played in the 2021-22 season, Brady ranks 4th all-time ATS, behind Teddy Bridgewater (66.6%), his former backup Jimmy Garoppolo (59.2%) and Josh Allen (59.0%).


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All time in regular-season play, Brady ranks second behind Joe Montana ATS among QBs with more than 100 starts.

Brady’s most-recent season ended with a 30-27 loss to the LA Rams in the NFL Divisional Round. The Bucs trailed 27-3 before tying it at 27-27. The final score went over the total of 49, but Rams (+3) covered and won outright as the road underdog. The Buccaneers went 10-9 ATS and 14-5 outright for the 2021-22 season.

Brady crushed his preseason props last year. Buccaneers bettors cashed over on 12 wins at -110 with DraftKings.

In the NFL futures and prop bet markets featuring Brady in his final season, he went over on 36.5 TD passes at -115 with DraftKings, over 4,750.5 yards passing at -130 with DraftKings and broke the all-time NFL passing record in Week 4 against the Patriots at +250 with DraftKings.

Yet, the biggest bets made on and against Brady were made away from your favorite legal online betting sites or brick-and-mortar sportsbooks.

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Every NFL Team Bet Against Brady — And Lost

Tom Brady Complete Betting History: The GOAT All-Time Against The Spread 12

At one time or another, every team in the NFL has chosen to bet against Brady. And he’s beaten all of them.

There were six quarterbacks chosen before Brady in the 2000 NFL draft. None ever reached the Super Bowl, never mind won seven. The best of the lot was Chad Pennington, whom the Jets chose with the No. 18 pick overall. Pennington played 89 regular-season games in his pro career and went 2-4 in the postseason. Brady was eventually selected by the Patriots with the 199th pick.

Brady spent the next 20 seasons making 31 NFL franchises outside New England regret their decision to let him slide to the Patriots in the sixth round. He then jumped to the Bucs and turned the table on New England in a thrilling 19-17 win in Week 4 of the 2021 season.


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Throughout his career, Brady has been cast as an underdog of sorts against the brand-name quarterbacks in the league. His first such rival was Peyton Manning. “Brady vs. Manning” was a marquee matchup in the NFL for more than a decade, even though it would be Eli Manning who twice denied Brady a championship ring. Manning’s Giants also ruined Brady’s lone shot at 19-0 perfection with an upset victory in Super Bowl XLII.

Brady will be 45 when the NFL season begins. Steve Young, Dan Marino, John Elway, Joe Montana, Otto Graham and Peyton Manning were each elected into the Hall of Fame at age 43.

NFL Fell Flat After Deflategate

Tom Brady Complete Betting History: The GOAT All-Time Against The Spread 13

The NFL tried its best to humble Brady during the infamous Deflategate scandal. After the AFC Championship Game following the 2014 season, the NFL accused Brady and the Patriots of playing with footballs that were underinflated. The mayhem cast a pall over New England’s 28-24 victory in Super Bowl XLIX two weeks later. The drama continued both in the front offices of the NFL and in federal court until April 2016. At that time, a three-judge panel of the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals sacked Brady. It reversed a lower court ruling that found Commissioner Roger Goodell was unfair when he handed down a four-game suspension.

Brady began the 2016 season at home, literally. His four-game suspension banned him from being on Patriots’ property and communicating or practicing with his teammates. The Patriots went 3-1 in Brady’s absence. He returned in Week 5 and led the Patriots on a rampage, winning 14 of 15 and the AFC Championship. In Super Bowl LI, Brady and the Patriots trailed 28-3 with 2:12 to play in the third quarter. Again, Brady’s professional obituary was written and ready to be posted on hundreds of websites and a billion times on social media. Brady bettors knew better. They watched him lead his team to the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history and a 34-28 triumph in overtime over the Atlanta Falcons.


RELATED: Complete Super Bowl Betting History, Odds & Outcomes


Brady shared the post-game stage with his legal nemesis, Goodell, and the Lombardi Trophy.

Somehow, that wasn’t enough. Brady and the Patriots returned to the Super Bowl the following season. Despite throwing for 505 yards and three touchdowns, Brady took the “L” as the Philly Special and a magical night from Nick Foles denied Brady his sixth ring.

Returning for his third straight Super Bowl the following February in Atlanta, Brady was not to be denied a second straight time. The Patriots won 13-3 in a game where Brady was flawless and steady after his first possession.

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Patriots Make Most Costly Bet Of All

Tom Brady Complete Betting History: The GOAT All-Time Against The Spread 14

The most significant and costly bet against Brady came before the 2020 season. After seeing his professional relationship with head coach Bill Belichick decline for several years, Brady and the Patriots parted ways. The blame can be split any way that suits you between Brady, Belichick and team owner Robert Kraft.

The bottom line in New England remains clear: Brady would retire as a Florida Man and The Patriot Way would never be the same.

The “Brady or Belichick” narrative hung over the 2020 season alongside a pandemic that changed the entire world of sport after the Bucs signed Brady in March. Tampa Bay quickly became an NFL bettors' favorite, as Brady drew Rob Gronkowski out of retirement and Gronkowski forced a trade of his rights by the Patriots. Brady and the Bucs added Antonio Brown — another Patriots’ castoff — to the roster.


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Brady changed the culture inside the Bucs locker room and transformed the team on the field. The Patriots would stumble to a 7-9 finish in 2020, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2002 and finishing below .500 for the first time since 2000. It soon would become clear that Brady had emerged victorious in his “divorce” from Belichick.

After a Week 12 loss to the Chiefs in 2020, Brady and the Bucs ran the table to the second Super Bowl victory in Tampa Bay history. Tampa Bay won three road playoff games before becoming the first team to host and win a Super Bowl at home.

Brady beat Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes in consecutive postseason games to clinch that seventh Super Bowl ring.

Naturally, he was an underdog on betting apps in all three.

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Brady .500 ATS In The Super Bowl

Brady continued to make history in Super Bowl 55, leading the hometown Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a 31-9 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. It would be Brady’s seventh and final Super Bowl victory and his 10th appearance overall in 20 full seasons as a starting QB. Let’s revisit each of Brady's appearances in The Big Game from a betting and NFL odds perspective.

Brady is 5-5 against the spread in his Super Bowl appearances, the first nine of which came with the New England Patriots. Brady and the Bucs won Super Bowl 55 as 3-point underdogs. The total was 56 points, among the highest in Super Bowl history.

Brady has seen some wild betting swings in the Super Bowl. He has won as a huge underdog and flopped as a touchdown-plus favorite. But his Super Bowl performances do follow a general pattern of “slow start – incredible finish.”

In his first nine Super Bowl tries, Brady scored just three points in the first quarter combined. He ended that drought last year with a touchdown pass to Rob Gronkowski in the final minute of the first quarter. Meanwhile, his fourth quarter (and overtime) drives have become the stuff of NFL Films legend. Brady has engineered five comebacks in the fourth quarter.

Here is the complete betting rundown of Brady’s 10 Super Bowl appearances.

Super Bowl XXXVI – Patriots 20, Rams 17

  • Date: Feb. 3, 2002
  • Closing Line: Patriots +14
  • Over/Under: 53
  • Site: New Orleans
  • Brady’s Stats: 16-27, 145 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 86.2 Passer Rating
Tom Brady Complete Betting History: The GOAT All-Time Against The Spread 1

Summary: Brady, just 24, began the season on the bench. He took over as quarterback after Drew Bledsoe was injured in the second game of the season and led the Patriots to just their third Super Bowl appearance in franchise history. That postseason run was boosted by the infamous “Tuck Rule” victory over the Raiders. Brady and the Patriots faced “The Greatest Show On Turf” in Super Bowl XXXVI. A fierce Belichick defense and Brady’s steady play (he threw just one TD pass) delivered the huge upset and the first NFL title for New England.


Super Bowl XXXVIII – Patriots 32, Panthers 29

  • Date: Feb. 1, 2004
  • Closing Line: Patriots -7
  • Over/Under: 37.5
  • Site: Houston
  • Brady’s Stats: 32-48, 354 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 100.5 Passer Rating
Tom Brady Complete Betting History: The GOAT All-Time Against The Spread 2

Summary: The Patriots and Panthers combined for 37 points in the fourth quarter – nearly matching the over/under total for the entire game. Brady threw 3 TD passes – including one to linebacker Mike Vrabel. While much of America was reeling over Janet Jackson’s “wardrobe malfunction,” Brady bettors cringed as the Patriots failed to cover the 7-point line. Kicker Adam Vinatieri delivered the victory with another game-winning FG in the game’s final seconds.


Super Bowl XXXIX – Patriots 24, Eagles 21

  • Date: Feb. 6, 2005
  • Closing Line: Patriots -7
  • Over/Under: 46.5
  • Site: Jacksonville, Florida
  • Brady’s Stats: 23-33, 236 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 110.2 Passer Rating
Tom Brady Complete Betting History: The GOAT All-Time Against The Spread 3

Summary: Another steady, interception-free performance from Brady, and a stout New England defense held off the Eagles to deliver back-to-back championships for the Patriots. The game was tight throughout, and the Patriots never really challenged the 7-point line. The victory cemented the Patriots Dynasty and Brady’s spot in football immortality, even though he would go 10 years before winning another title.


Super Bowl XLII – Giants 17, Patriots 14

  • Date: Feb. 3, 2008
  • Closing Line: Patriots -12
  • Over/Under: 55
  • Site: Glendale, Arizona
  • Brady’s Stats: 29-48, 266 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 86.5 Passer Rating
Tom Brady Complete Betting History: The GOAT All-Time Against The Spread 4

Summary: Brady’s perfect season and perfect record in the Super Bowl was smashed by an unrelenting Giants pass rush and the miracle that was “The Helmet Catch.” The heavily-favored Patriots never got their offense going, but nonetheless held a 14-10 lead with less than a two minutes to play before Eli Manning connected with David Tyree. You know the rest. Brady would settle for the most miserable 18-1 season in pro football history.

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Super Bowl XLVI – Giants 21, Patriots 17

  • Date: Feb. 5, 2012
  • Closing Line: Patriots -2.5
  • Over/Under: 53
  • Site: Indianapolis
  • Brady’s Stats: 27-41, 276 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 91.5 Passer Rating
Tom Brady Complete Betting History: The GOAT All-Time Against The Spread 5

Summary: This was “Groundhog Day” meets “Déjà Vu All Over Again.” The Patriots-Giants rematch matched the original in what would become Brady’s worst all-around Super Bowl performance. Brady took a safety on the Patriots' first snap after an intentional-grounding penalty in the end zone. This time, it was a Manning-to-Mario Manningham miraculous 38-yard completion that crushed the soul of Brady backers late in the fourth quarter. It was the fourth consecutive Super Bowl in which Brady and the Patriots failed to cover the spread as betting favorites.


Super Bowl XLIX – Patriots 28, Seahawks 24

  • Date: Feb. 1, 2015
  • Closing Line: Pick ‘Em
  • Over/Under: 47.5
  • Site: Glendale, Arizona
  • Brady’s Stats: 37-50, 328 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT, 101.1 Passer Rating
Tom Brady Complete Betting History: The GOAT All-Time Against The Spread 6

Summary: The Patriots trailed by 10 points in the second half before Brady struck with TD passes to Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola. A furious Seattle comeback was thwarted by a stop of Marshawn Lynch on the 1-yard-line by Dont’a Hightower and an end-zone interception courtesy of Malcolm Butler. The Patriots’ comeback delivered a late win for over bettors in addition to Brady’s fourth championship. It was the first time since Brady’s second Super Bowl that the final score finished over the closing total.


Super Bowl LI – Patriots 34, Falcons 28 (OT)

  • Date: Feb. 5, 2017
  • Closing Line: Patriots -3
  • Over/Under: 57
  • Site: Houston, TX
  • Brady’s Stats: 43-62, 466 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 95.2 Passer Rating
Tom Brady Complete Betting History: The GOAT All-Time Against The Spread 7

Summary: Down by 25 points with 2:12 to play in the third quarter after missing four games earlier in the season due to his “Deflategate” suspension, Brady rallied the Patriots for the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history. This game lives on in the “3-28” T-shirts worn by Patriots fans to this day, and in the winnings of those who took New England and the over. This overtime victory serves as the template in any discussion about Brady’s greatest performances. It stands as a permanent reminder as to why one can never count out Brady until there is no time left on the clock.


Super Bowl LII – Eagles 41, Patriots 33

  • Date: Feb. 4, 2018
  • Closing Line: Patriots -4
  • Over/Under: 49
  • Site: Minneapolis, MN
  • Brady’s Stats: 28-48, 505 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 115.4 Passer Rating
Tom Brady Complete Betting History: The GOAT All-Time Against The Spread 8

Summary: This was Brady’s most-productive Super Bowl in terms of yards and overall passer rating. Brady’s defense failed him thanks to the “Philly Special,” a magical performance by Nick Foles and Belichick’s inexplicable decision to sit Butler for the entire game (save for one special teams play). Brady’s final touchdown pass – a 4-yard toss to Rob Gronkowski – gave New England a 33-32 lead in the fourth quarter. The Eagles then marched downfield and ate the next 7 minutes off the clock before scoring the game-winning touchdown.


Super Bowl LIII – Patriots 13, Rams 3

  • Date: Feb. 3, 2019
  • Closing Line: Patriots -2.5
  • Over/Under: 56
  • Site: Atlanta, GA
  • Brady’s Stats: 21-35, 262 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 71.3 Passer Rating
Tom Brady Complete Betting History: The GOAT All-Time Against The Spread 9

Summary: This was Brady’s weakest statistical Super Bowl performance. Yet, he was solidly in command throughout this game after throwing an interception on New England’s first possession. Edelman caught 14 passes and was game MVP. New England’s defense and special teams shut down Jared Goff and the Rams. Brady connected with Gronkowski on a 29-yard strike with 7:43 to play that set up the game’s lone TD on the next snap. Brady’s sixth Super Bowl victory was his only one decided by more than a one-score margin.


Super Bowl LV – Bucs 31, Chiefs 9

  • Date: Feb. 7, 2021
  • Closing Line: Bucs +3
  • Over/Under: 56
  • Site: Tampa, FL
  • Brady’s Stats: 21-29, 201 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 81.8 Passer Rating
Tom Brady Complete Betting History: The GOAT All-Time Against The Spread 10

Summary: This was the Super Bowl blowout Brady waited nearly 20 years to play. Brady ended his first-quarter touchdown drought with an 8-yard scoring strike to Gronkowski. That strike gave the Bucs a 7-3 lead. They would never trail again. Tampa Bay's monstrous defensive front rattled Patrick Mahomes for 60 minutes and prevented the high-octane Kansas City offense from scoring a touchdown. The Bucs led 21-6 at the half and pounded the Chiefs on both sides of the ball throughout the second half. Neither Brady nor the Bucs turned the ball over and were able to take advantage of multiple Kansas City penalties.


All photos other than main illustration via PA Images

About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.