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By Bill Speros | | 8 mins

Tom Brady Super Bowls: A Complete Betting History

Tom Brady Super Bowls: A Complete Betting History

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady continued to make history in Super Bowl 55, leading the hometown Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a 31-9 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. It was Brady’s seventh Super Bowl victory and his 10th overall in 19 full seasons as a starting QB. Let’s revisit each of Brady's appearances in The Big Game from an NFL betting perspective.

Brady, 43, is just 5-5 against the spread in his Super Bowl appearances, the first nine of which came with the New England Patriots. Brady and the Bucs won Super Bowl 55 going-away as 3-point underdogs. The total was 56 points, among the highest in Super Bowl history.

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Brady has seen some wild betting swings in the Super Bowl. He has won as a huge underdog and flopped as a touchdown-plus favorite. But his Super Bowl performances do follow a general pattern of “slow start – incredible finish.”

In his first nine Super Bowl tries, Brady scored just three points in the first quarter combined. He ended that drought Sunday with a touchdown pass to Rob Gronkowski in the final minute of the first quarter. Meanwhile, his fourth quarter (and overtime) drives have become the stuff of NFL Films legend. Brady has engineered five comebacks in the fourth quarter.

Here is the complete betting rundown of Brady’s 10 Super Bowl appearances.

Super Bowl XXXVI – Patriots 20, Rams 17

  • Date: Feb. 3, 2002
  • Closing Line: Patriots +14
  • Over/Under: 53
  • Site: New Orleans
  • Brady’s Stats: 16-27, 145 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 86.2 Passer Rating
Tom Brady Super Bowls: A Complete Betting History 1

Summary: Brady, just 24, began the season on the bench. He took over as quarterback after Drew Bledsoe was injured in the second game of the season and led the Patriots to just their third Super Bowl appearance in franchise history. That postseason run was boosted by the infamous “Tuck Rule” victory over the Raiders. Brady and the Patriots faced “The Greatest Show On Turf” in Super Bowl XXXVI. A fierce Bill Belichick defense and Brady’s steady play (he threw just one TD pass) delivered the huge upset and the first NFL title for New England.

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Super Bowl XXXVIII – Patriots 32, Panthers 29

  • Date: Feb. 1, 2004
  • Closing Line: Patriots -7
  • Over/Under: 37.5
  • Site: Houston
  • Brady’s Stats: 32-48, 354 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 100.5 Passer Rating
Tom Brady Super Bowls: A Complete Betting History 2

Summary: The Patriots and Panthers combined for 37 points in the fourth quarter – nearly matching the over/under total for the entire game. Brady threw 3 TD passes – including one to linebacker Mike Vrabel. While much of America was reeling over Janet Jackson’s “wardrobe malfunction,” Brady bettors cringed as the Patriots failed to cover the 7-point line. Kicker Adam Vinatieri delivered the victory with another game-winning FG in the game’s final seconds.

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Super Bowl XXXIX – Patriots 24, Eagles 21

  • Date: Feb. 6, 2005
  • Closing Line: Patriots -7
  • Over/Under: 46.5
  • Site: Jacksonville, Florida
  • Brady’s Stats: 23-33, 236 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 110.2 Passer Rating
Tom Brady Super Bowls: A Complete Betting History 3

Summary: Another steady, interception-free performance from Brady, and a stout New England defense held off the Eagles to deliver back-to-back championships for the Patriots. The game was tight throughout, and the Patriots never really challenged the 7-point line. The victory cemented the Patriots Dynasty and Brady’s spot in football immortality, even though he would go 10 years before winning another title.

Super Bowl XLII – Giants 17, Patriots 14

  • Date: Feb. 3, 2008
  • Closing Line: Patriots -12
  • Over/Under: 55
  • Site: Glendale, Arizona
  • Brady’s Stats: 29-48, 266 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 86.5 Passer Rating
Tom Brady Super Bowls: A Complete Betting History 4

Summary: Brady’s perfect season and perfect record in the Super Bowl was smashed by an unrelenting Giants pass rush and the miracle that was “The Helmet Catch.” The heavily-favored Patriots never got their offense going, but nonetheless held a 14-10 lead with less than a two minutes to play before Eli Manning connected with David Tyree. You know the rest. Brady would settle for the most miserable 18-1 season in pro football history.

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Super Bowl XLVI – Giants 21, Patriots 17

  • Date: Feb. 5, 2012
  • Closing Line: Patriots -2.5
  • Over/Under: 53
  • Site: Indianapolis
  • Brady’s Stats: 27-41, 276 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 91.5 Passer Rating
Tom Brady Super Bowls: A Complete Betting History 5

Summary: This was “Groundhog Day” meets “Déjà Vu All Over Again.” The Patriots-Giants rematch matched the original in what would become Brady’s worst all-around Super Bowl performance. Brady took a safety on the Patriots' first snap after an intentional-grounding penalty in the end zone. This time, it was a Manning-to-Mario Manningham miraculous 38-yard completion that crushed the soul of Brady backers late in the fourth quarter. It was the fourth consecutive Super Bowl in which Brady and the Patriots failed to cover the spread as betting favorites.

Super Bowl XLIX – Patriots 28, Seahawks 24

  • Date: Feb. 1, 2015
  • Closing Line: Pick ‘Em
  • Over/Under: 47.5
  • Site: Glendale, Arizona
  • Brady’s Stats: 37-50, 328 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT, 101.1 Passer Rating
Tom Brady Super Bowls: A Complete Betting History 6

Summary: The Patriots trailed by 10 points in the second half before Brady struck with TD passes to Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola. A furious Seattle comeback was thwarted by a stop of Marshawn Lynch on the 1-yard-line by Dont’a Hightower and an end-zone interception courtesy of Malcolm Butler. The Patriots’ comeback delivered a late win for over bettors in addition to Brady’s fourth championship. It was the first time since Brady’s second Super Bowl that the final score finished over the closing total.

Super Bowl LI – Patriots 34, Falcons 28 (OT)

  • Date: Feb. 5, 2017
  • Closing Line: Patriots -3
  • Over/Under: 57
  • Site: Houston
  • Brady’s Stats: 43-62, 466 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 95.2 Passer Rating
Tom Brady Super Bowls: A Complete Betting History 7

Summary: Down by 25 points with 2:12 to play the third quarter after missing four games earlier in the season due to his “Deflategate” suspension, Brady rallied the Patriots for the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history. This game lives on in the “3-28” T-shirts worn by Patriots fans to this day, and in the winnings of those who took New England and the over. This overtime victory serves as the template in any discussion about Brady’s greatest performances. It stands as a permanent reminder as to why one can never count out Brady until there is no time left on the clock.

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Super Bowl LII – Eagles 41, Patriots 33

  • Date: Feb. 4, 2018
  • Closing Line: Patriots -4
  • Over/Under: 49
  • Site: Minneapolis
  • Brady’s Stats: 28-48, 505 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 115.4 Passer Rating
Tom Brady Super Bowls: A Complete Betting History 8

Summary: This was Brady’s most-productive Super Bowl in terms of yards and overall passer rating. Brady’s defense failed him thanks to the “Philly Special,” a magical performance by Nick Foles and Belichick’s inexplicable decision to sit Butler for the entire game (save for one special teams play). Brady’s final touchdown pass – a 4-yard toss to Rob Gronkowski – gave New England a 33-32 lead in the fourth quarter. The Eagles then marched downfield and ate the next 7 minutes off the clock before scoring the game-winning touchdown.

Super Bowl LIII – Patriots 13, Rams 3

  • Date: Feb. 3, 2019
  • Closing Line: Patriots -2.5
  • Over/Under: 56
  • Site: Atlanta
  • Brady’s Stats: 21-35, 262 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 71.3 Passer Rating
Tom Brady Super Bowls: A Complete Betting History 9

Summary: This was Brady’s weakest statistical Super Bowl performance. Yet, he was solidly in command throughout this game after throwing an interception on New England’s first possession. Edelman caught 14 passes and was game MVP. New England’s defense and special teams shut down Jared Goff and the Rams. Brady connected with Gronkowski on a 29-yard strike with 7:43 to play that set up the game’s lone TD on the next snap. Brady’s sixth Super Bowl victory was his only one decided by more than a one-score margin.

Super Bowl LV – Bucs 31, Chiefs 9

  • Date: Feb. 7, 2021
  • Closing Line: Bucs +3
  • Over/Under: 56
  • Site: Tampa
  • Brady’s Stats: 21-29, 201 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 81.8 Passer Rating
Tom Brady Super Bowls: A Complete Betting History 10

Summary: This was the Super Bowl blowout Brady waited nearly 20 years to play. Brady ended his first-quarter touchdown drought with an 8-yard scoring strike to Gronkowski. That strike gave the Bucs a 7-3 lead. They would never trail again. Tampa Bay's monstrous defensive front rattled Patrick Mahomes for 60 minutes and prevented the high-octane Kansas City offense from scoring a touchdown. The Bucs led 21-6 at the half and pounded the Chiefs on both sides of the ball each way throughout the second half. Neither Brady nor the Bucs turned the ball over and were able to take advantage of multiple Kansas City penalties.

All photos other than main illustration via PA Images

About the Author

Bill Speros for
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.