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Bill Speros for Bookies.com

By Bill Speros | | 27 mins

2022 Oscars Best Bets & Predictions For The 94th Academy Awards

2022 Oscars Best Bets & Predictions For The 94th Academy Awards

And the Oscar goes to . . .

Voting for the 94th Academy Awards has concluded. The Oscars ceremony airs Sunday starting at 8 p.m. ET on ABC.

Betting on the Oscars has been legal in the United States since 2019. This year, betting sites in New Jersey, Michigan, Indiana, and Louisiana are booking action on Hollywood’s biggest night of the year.


RELATED: Where Can You Bet On The 2022 Oscars?


Not all legal sportsbooks are taking wagers on the Oscars. And not all books are accepting Oscar bets where permitted. FanDuel, for example, is taking Oscar bets in New Jersey and is accepting wagers in 14 categories. BetMGM is approved for Oscar wagering in Indiana, Michigan and Louisiana. DraftKings and Caesars have betting available in all four states where it is allowed this year, across 23 categories.

The Oscar telecast is being tri-hosted by Wanda Sykes, Amy Schumer, and Regina Hall. To lure male viewers, the ceremony will include a tribute to 60 years of James Bond and a 50th anniversary celebration of the “The Godfather.” Viewership can’t get much lower than it did last year, when just 10.4 million people watched the third-straight ceremony lacking a host. That marked a 56% drop from 2020. It was the smallest TV audience in Oscar history since the first measurement in 1974.

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2022 Oscar Odds & Predictions

2022 Oscars Best Bets & Predictions For The 94th Academy Awards 1

The betting favorites to win Best Picture, Best Actor, and Best Actress have remained consistent since the Screen Actors Guild Awards ceremony on Feb. 27.

Netflix’s “The Power Of the Dog,” directed by Jane Campion, leads all films with 12 nominations and rests uneasy as the favorite to nab Best Picture honors. Will Smith (“King Richard) and Jessica Chastain ("The Eyes Of Tammy Faye") have seen their prices continue to rise in the markets for the Best Actor and Best Actress awards.

Here is a breakdown of the odds listed by their best available price, our picks, and the buzz on each of the six major Oscar categories.

Best Picture - Oscars 2022 Odds

Film Odds
The Power Of The Dog -150
CODA +110
Belfast +900
West Side Story +3500
King Richard +4000
Dune +5000
Don’t Look Up +6500
Licorice Pizza +8000
Drive My Car +8000
Nightmare Alley +15000

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook and subject to change

Analysis

“Dog” remains the consensus favorite to take home Best Picture honors at the Academy Awards. But its price has shrunk considerably. It was -285 just a month ago on betting apps. Meanwhile, “CODA” has seen its odds surge since a strong performance at the Screen Actors Guild awards. It was as high as +2000 following the Golden Globes. The film centers around Ruby, a 17-year-old who is the only member of a deaf family who can hear. She discovers a talent and passion for signing. Ruby strives to balance her newfound ambitions with helping the family’s struggling fishing business stay afloat. The movie was distributed via Apple TV+.

The hype surrounding “CODA” has absorbed much of the pre-Oscar oxygen. The film scored much better among audiences than critics. But it carries an upbeat, optimistic tone that could find a home with Oscar voters given the state of current affairs in the world.

The Winner Is . . .

”CODA”: This one is going to down to the wire. “Dog” was long considered a can’t-miss favorite but was unable to close the deal with oddsmakers. Oscar voters could well hand the Best Picture win to “CODA” while awarding Campion Best Director honors for “Dog.”


THE ENVELOPE PLEASE: 2022 Oscar Betting Odds & Analysis


Best Director – Oscars 2022 Odds

2022 Oscars Best Bets & Predictions For The 94th Academy Awards 6
Director Film Odds
Jane Campion The Power Of The Dog -3300
Kenneth Branagh Belfast +1400
Paul Thomas Anderson Licorice Pizza +2000
Steven Spielberg West Side Story +2500
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi Drive My Car +3300

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook and subject to change

Analysis

Campion has long been viewed as a virtual lock for this honor. That was until her speech after she accepted the Best Director award for “The Power of the Dog” at the Critics Choice Awards on March 13. She awkwardly paid tribute to the other accomplished women in the room. And she rattled the Wokeverse by telling Venus and Serena Williams that they are “marvels” before adding, “However, you do not have to play against the guys like I have to.”

Campion’s diversion from the dogma of the day and her alleged “humiliation” of the Williams sisters continues to rankle the internet and social media. Campion has apologized. But history has demonstrated that’s never enough for some.

Her price to win had held steady among oddsmakers. Her effort in “Dog” has also received a train load of accolades. It’s her second nod for Best Director honors. The first was for “The Piano” some 29 years ago. Campion’s past record will help here, even as she’s going up against Steven Spielberg, among others.

The Winner Is . . .

Jane Campion (“The Power Of The Dog”): If Campion does not win, it will undoubtedly be seen as a backlash against her remarks at the CC Awards. The Academy doesn’t want that. It will be interesting to see how voters compartmentalize this one. The best play here beside Campion would be Kenneth Branagh for his guidance in “Belfast.”

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Best Actor In A Leading Role – Oscar 2022 Odds

2022 Oscars Best Bets & Predictions For The 94th Academy Awards 2
Actor Film Odds
Will Smith King Richard -1000
Benedict Cumberbatch The Power Of The Dog +500
Andrew Garfield tick, tick . . . BOOM! +900
Denzel Washington The Tragedy Of Macbeth +4000
Javier Bardem Being The Ricardos +5000

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook and subject to change

Analysis

Smith swept Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and Screen Actors Guild honors on the road to the Dolby Theatre. Last year, the pre-Oscar momentum rode with the late Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”). But Anthony Hopkins scored the betting upset for his gripping performance as a man fading into dementia in “The Father.” That was another nod to the Academy’s growing international bloc. Not only has the Academy’s membership become more diverse in terms of race and gender. It has expanded worldwide, as evidenced by “Parasite’s” win as Best Picture for 2019.

The Winner Is . . .

Will Smith (“King Richard”): If this were a tennis match, Smith would be holding a 2-0 lead and be up 40-love in the fifth set with a 5-0 advantage. Benedict Cumberbatch (“Dog”) delivered, as he often does. But there will be no upset here. Smith gave us the first major dramatic portrayal of the Williams Family tennis patriarch. Or at least the first one worth remembering. This is his third Oscar nomination. Voters tend to favor portrayals of real people. We expect that trend continues here.

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Best Actress In A Leading Role – Oscars 2022 Odds

2022 Oscars Best Bets & Predictions For The 94th Academy Awards 3
Actress Film Odds
Jessica Chastain The Eyes Of Tammy Faye -150
Nicole Kidman Being The Ricardos +300
Olivia Colman The Lost Daughter +450
Kristen Stewart Spencer +550
Penelope Cruz Parallel Mothers +1200

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook and subject to change

Analysis

This is the most competitive of the major categories this year. The board flipped after Jessica Chastain nabbed the SAG award for Best Actress. “The Eyes Of Tammy Faye” brought the late televangelist back to life with a humanity that had yet to be depicted on film. The real-life protagonist in the film divorced Jim Bakker and remarried before her death in 2007. Chastain’s portrayal covered 40 years of Tammy Faye’s life, starting with her days as a bible college student in Minnesota. She said she suffered permanent skin damage due to the incredible amount of make-up used in filming. Nicole Kidman (“Being The Ricardos”) was the early favorite for her fierce and fiery performance of Lucille Ball. Kidman’s momentum has since fizzled.

The Winner Is . . .

Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes Of Tammy Faye”): We’re sticking with Chastain. If you’re looking for the upset, Olivia Colman (“The Lost Daughter”) could well follow the upset path taken by Hopkins last year.


Best Actor In A Supporting Role – Oscars 2022 Odds

2022 Oscars Best Bets & Predictions For The 94th Academy Awards 4
Actor Film Odds
Troy Kotsur CODA -400
Kodi Smit-McPhee The Power Of The Dog +250
Ciaran Hinds Belfast +2000
Jesse Plemons The Power Of The Dog +2500
J.K. Simmons Being The Ricardos +4000

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook and subject to change

Analysis

Troy Kostur (“CODA”) has settled as the favorite among both oddsmakers and critics. This category has seen significant movement. Kodi Smit-McPhee's magnetic effort as the dedicated son in “Dog” was an early betting favorite after a win in the Golden Globes. Ciarán Hinds (“Belfast”) has also gained critical acclaim for his role as a grandfather during The Troubles.

The Winner Is . . .

Troy Kostur (“CODA”): Kotsur should ride the momentum of “CODA” to this award, even if the film itself falls short in the Best Picture category. Smit-McPhee is a better play given his price and potential for foreign support.

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Best Actress In A Supporting Role – Oscars 2022 Odds

2022 Oscars Best Bets & Predictions For The 94th Academy Awards 5
Actress Film Odds
Ariana DeBose West Side Story -2000
Kirsten Dunst The Power Of The Dog +700
Aunjanue Ellis King Richard +1600
Judi Dench Belfast +2500
Jessie Buckley The Lost Daughter +3300

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook and subject to change

Analysis

Ariana DeBose is favored to win for her electric performance as Anita in Spielberg’s “West Side Story.” DeBose would follow in the iconic footsteps of Rita Moreno, who copped the Oscar for the same role back in 1961. DeBose, dare we say, did it almost as well, if not better. While the film flopped at the box office and fell far short of the magic delivered in the original, DeBose did her job in presenting a new Anita to a new generation.

The Winner Is . . .

Ariana DeBose (“West Side Story”): If there is any such thing as a lock, this one would be it. Any of these nominees are worthy. Kirsten Dunst rarely misses. Dame Judi Dench brings a regal touch to every role. Aunjanue Ellis held serve against Smith in “King Richard.” DeBose remains the brightest star in the 2022 galaxy.

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About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.