2024 Republican Nominee Odds: DeSantis Dips Amid COVID Spike
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Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' dip in 2024 Republican nominee odds has continued, with him falling to +450, the lowest mark since his surge in the spring. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump continues to strengthen as the favorite to get the GOP nod, improving to +200 at UK bookmaker Ladbrokes. He had been +400 just four months ago.
Trump’s former UN Ambassador, Nikki Haley, remains third choice at betting sites with odds of +800. Two politicians whose odds have been on the move are Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, who jumped from +2500 to +2000, and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, who jumped from +3300 to +2500.
Like a handful of other senators such as Ted Cruz and Tom Cotton who did not support certifying the 2020 Presidential election results, Hawley saw his odds lengthen after the January 6 storming of the Capitol. Scott seems to have gotten a bump from an early August report that GOP megadonors were flocking to him as a potential alternative should DeSantis and Trump both sag.
DeSantis was +1000 in April and climbed to even with Trump in May. Trump’s odds to win in 2024 also jumped to +500 from +700, the best numbers he’s seen in more than seven months. DeSantis' overall 2024 odds also moved up, from +1200 to +1000.
2024 Republican Nominee Odds
|Donald Trump Jr.||+5000||–|
Odds current through August 26, 2021
Critical Time For DeSantis
In the spring, DeSantis was established in GOP circles as the primary alternative to Trump should the former president not seek election in 2024. Cash flowed in and the hype machine was running full bore.
Then the dog days of summer hit, and it hasn’t been a great one for DeSantis. COVID cases spiked in the Sunshine State, ICU units became jammed and the Delta variant stoked fears of what a return to school might look like for Florida students. DeSantis’ high profile battles with school boards over mask mandates and his threats to financially punish districts that violate his order banning them added to the narrative.
DeSantis and Florida rolled out more than a dozen state-run COVID-19 treatment clinics to try to mitigate the surge instead of urging masking. DeSantis suggested Biden should follow his lead even as Florida was reporting an average of 227 COVID-19 deaths a day, a state record and the highest count in the country.
Political memories are short and the body politic is fickle. DeSantis is clearly not backing down, and how it plays out in the next few months will undoubtedly shape his political future and presidential ambitions. He is up for re-election in Florida next November.
2024 US Presidential Odds
|Joe Biden (D)||+350||↑|
|Kamala Harris (D)||+400||↓|
|Donald Trump (R)||+500||↑|
|Ron DeSantis (R)||+1000||↑|
|Nikki Haley (R)||+2000||–|
|Mike Pence (R)||+2000||–|
|Pete Buttigieg (D)||+4000||↑|
|Kristi Noem (R)||+5000||↓|
|Ted Cruz (R)||+5000||–|
|Josh Hawley (R)||+5000||↑|
|Kristi Noem (R)||+5000||↓|
|Tim Scott (R)||+5000||↑|
|Elizabeth Warren (D)||+5000||↑|
|Tom Cotton (R)||+6600||–|
|Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)||+6600||–|
2024 Presidential Election odds via Ladbrokes as of August 26, 2021
A few notable shifts in terms of presidential odds. President Joe Biden, who since taking office was listed as second choice in the odds behind his VP, Kamala Harris, has flipped positions (and odds) with her. Oddsmakers likely were taking into account his age taking office (78), but as each month goes by, it’s a month closer to 2024.
Ladbrokes sports betting app still lists the Democrats at -120 to win the 2024 election, while Republicans remain at +110.
In conjunction with the 2024 overall odds shift, Biden has been installed as the favorite for the Democratic nomination at +175 (from +200) with Harris dipping from +188 to +200. Buttigieg has jumped to third in the queue at +1600, up from +2000.
A reminder: Political betting is not legal in the United States, but it is over in Europe. Just because the best sportsbooks didn’t offer odds in 2020, that it didn’t stop many networks from citing the betting markets leading up to and throughout 2020 Election Night (and the days that followed).