By Jed Meshew | | 8 mins
UFC 270 Odds, Betting Tips & Predictions For Ngannou vs Gane
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This weekend the UFC returns with their first Pay-Per-View event of the year, UFC 270, and they’re kicking 2022 off with two title fights for a great slate of UFC betting action. In the co-main event, flyweight champion Brandon Moreno looks to close the book on his trilogy with former champion Deiveson Figueiredo.
In the main event, the top two heavyweights in the world collide when champion Francis Ngannou attempts to unify the titles against interim champion and former training partner Ciryl Gane. Let's make some UFC picks and best bets...
Francis Ngannou vs. Ciryl Gane Odds
|Ciryl Gane, -150||Francis Ngannou, +125|
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Francis Ngannou vs. Ciryl Gane Analysis
Though still relatively new to MMA, Ngannou has been viewed by many to be the future of the heavyweight division for several years now, a future he finally realized when he knocked out long-time champion Stipe Miocic last March. The reason fans have been so bullish on Ngannou is the otherworldly power he brings to the cage.
Ngannou is very likely the hardest puncher that MMA has ever seen and his resume backs that up, with vicious knockout wins over five former world champions. His game is entirely built around that power, generally choosing to work at a measured pace while looking for the one big shot. Hulking and athletic with good instincts for fighting, Ngannou has shown flashes of grappling ability though he prefers mostly to stay on the feet.
Though at a quick glance it’s easy to paint Gane as cut from the same cloth as Ngannou - both athletic powerhouses with a bevy of KOs on their records - “Bon Gamin” is an entirely different sort of heavyweight. An accomplished Muay Thai practitioner before he moved to MMA, Gane certainly can hit but he’s much more than just a power puncher.
Gane keeps a high pace (especially for a heavyweight), has excellent movement and defense, and he mixes his attacks well. Against Ngannou, Gane will look to take advantage of all of that to avoid the power shot of the champion and then beat him with volume.
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Francis Ngannou vs Ciryl Gane Best Bet
The main event of UFC 270 features a tale as old as combat sports, power vs. precision, and in this age-old battle, it’s precision that comes out on top more often than not. Francis Ngannou is one of the most effective heavyweights we have ever seen, yet he has huge gaps in his style and technique.
Those gaps have been papered over by his power but in Gane, Ngannou faces the man most able to mitigate the power advantage, by not allowing Ngannou to hit him in the first place. Gane is, simply put, a more technical and diverse striker than Ngannou, and one who is extremely defensively sound. Having trained with Ngannou, he knows full well how dangerous exchanging with the champion will be and I expect Gane to be well prepared to avoid the haymakers of Ngannou and wear “The Predator” down over time.
It’s a cruel irony that Ngannou has been viewed as the future of the heavyweight division for so long and now that he has finally won the title, his reign will be short, but that’s just how MMA goes sometimes. The suggested bet at sportsbooks is Gane by KO/TKO or Decision at +125 on FOX Bet.
Brandon Moreno vs. Deiveson Figueiredo Analysis
The co-main event of UFC 270 is a trilogy bout between Moreno and Figueiredo which shows just how much things can change in MMA in a very short period of time. In their first bout (UFC 256), Moreno came in as a huge underdog and over-performed, earning a draw because Figueiredo had a point deducted during the bout.
When they rematched six months later (UFC 263), Moreno was less of an underdog but most still felt confident that Figueiredo was the superior fighter - boy were they wrong. Moreno dominated Figueiredo in the rematch, submitting the champion in the third round, and now as they prepare to face off one last time, it’s Moreno who has become the clear favorite to win.
Moreno is a high-octane scrapper. No one would accuse Moreno of being an exceptional striker, but he’s more than competent on the feet and has an excellent chin, which allows him to hold his own in exchanges, even against the power of someone like Figueiredo.
Where Moreno really excels though is in the transitions. Moreno is excellent at mixing in his wrestling with his striking, and he’s a tremendous scrambler in grappling exchanges. Perhaps most importantly of all though, Moreno is only 28 years old and seems to just now be arriving at his peak.
The man affectionately dubbed “Figgy Smalls” by fans is a very different kind of fighter than Moreno. Like Francis Ngannou, Figueiredo is a power-puncher at heart, wielding the heaviest hands in the flyweight division and an iron chin that makes him especially difficult to engage in brawls.
Moreover, Figueiredo is a physical specimen for the weight class, looking like he was carved out of wood and showcasing a power and agility that make it extremely difficult to take him down and keep him there, meaning his opponents usually are forced to engage in his preferred striking battle. Unfortunately for Figueiredo, a fighter who relies so heavily on his physicality, at 34 his age is perhaps starting to show and as his best weapons start to decline, it makes the prospect of unseating Moreno that much more difficult.
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Brandon Moreno vs Deiveson Figueiredo Best Bet
We’ve seen this fight twice before now and the story from the two bouts is clear: Moreno has grown before our eyes to become the best flyweight in the world, while Father Time has caught up with Figueiredo. Having tasted the power of Figueiredo in their first encounter, Moreno came into the rematch with little fear of the bombs and simply outworked Figueiredo, wearing him down. That’s not something Figueiredo can really fix, barring landing a fight-altering shot, and Moreno’s chin doesn’t seem likely to crack.
If he’s unable to deter Moreno from putting a pace on him, Figueiredo is destined to succumb to the pressure of the champion and that’s what will happen here, as it did in their second fight. The suggested bet on betting apps is Brandon Moreno by Submission or Decision at +100 on FOX Bet and I also like flyers on Moreno to win in Round 4 at +1500 and Moreno to win in Round 5 at +1800 on apps and sports betting sites.