We are back this weekend with another stacked MMA card. UFC 272 takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, featuring 13 fights in total, including the main event grudge match between bitter rivals Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal.

We will break down that fight and two others as we give out our UFC picks for UFC 272. After hitting on two underdogs last week, let’s try and find some UFC betting value once again this weekend!

Colby Covington vs Jorge Masvidal Odds

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UFC 272 Predictions: Covington (-400) vs. Masvidal (+300)

The main event of UFC 272 is a five-round welterweight bout between archrivals Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal. These two superstars used to be friends, but they are now bitter rivals. Covington is a monster -400 to win the fight, with Masvidal at +300 underdog odds at top betting sites.

Since entering the UFC in 2014, Covington has been one of the best welterweights in the sport as he’s racked up an 11-3 record in the UFC. Aside from two competitive losses to champion Kamaru Usman and an early-career loss to Warlley Alves, Covington hasn’t been beaten. With his strong wrestling skills to go along with improved striking and an endless gas tank, Covington has definitely proven himself to be one of the sport’s top welterweights.

Masvidal has also been one of the best welterweights in the sport. He entered the UFC in 2013 and since then he has racked up a 12-8 record. However, unlike Covington who generally grinds out his opponents with his wrestling, Masvidal is going out there and looking for the knockout. Masvidal has six wins by knockout in the UFC, and against Covington, the path to victory for “Gamebred” will be to find his opponent’s chin and try to put his lights out.

Masvidal has a puncher’s chance to win this fight, but overall Covington is such an effective wrestler and I just see him grinding Masvidal out over the course of 25 minutes. The official pick is Covington to win outright at -400 and for a prop, Covington by decision at -115 odds on DraftKings.

The Pick: Colby Covington -400 at DraftKings

Alternative Pick: Colby Covington wins by decision -115 at DraftKings

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Other UFC 272 Best Bets

Jalin Turner (-155) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+135)

On the preliminary card, Jalin Turner takes on Jamie Mullarkey. Turner is a -155 favorite to win the fight, with the comeback on Mullarkey. While both fighters certainly are capable of winning this fight, I’m going to back the underdog Mullarkey to get the win.

Mullarkey has looked really good in the UFC so far, and his 2-2 record is not indicative of how well he has performed inside the Octagon. After losing two close decisions to open up his UFC career, Mullarkey has since knocked out two straight opponents. Mullarkey, in fact, has 10 wins by knockout in his career. He has also shown serious toughness in the Octagon and he appears to be someone with a very durable chin who is going to be hard to knock out.

As for Turner, he’s 4-2 in the UFC with all four of his wins coming by stoppage and with one of the losses coming by knockout. Turner has performed really well in the UFC as well, as he’s been not only knocking his opponents out, but also submitting them. However, the fact Turner has three knockout losses is concerning, and at some point, he could get KO'd again.

Mullarkey seems like the tougher fighter. I think he survives a difficult first round to come back in the second and win by knockout. I’ll take a shot on Mullarkey straight at +135 and take a shot on him to win the fight by knockout at +300 odds.

The Pick: Jamie Mullarkey +135 at DraftKings

Alternative Pick: Jamie Mullarkey by knockout +300 at DraftKings

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Kennedy Nzechukwu (-145) vs. Nicolae Negumereanu (+125)

Also on the preliminary card is a light heavyweight bout between Kennedy Nzechukwu and Nicolae Negumereanu. Nzechukwu is a -145 favorite with Negumereanu as a +125 underdog, and I see value in Negumereanu as an underdog on betting apps.

Negumeranu made his UFC debut back in 2018 and lost an ugly decision to Saparbek Safarov. However, after taking two years away from the cage to train, Negumereanu returned to the UFC in 2021 and picked up two wins over Aleksa Camur and Ike Villanueva. He has shown really strong striking skills in his return to the UFC, and at age 27 he can still improve.

Nzechukwu also joined the UFC in 2019 and he’s gone 3-2 in the Octagon since then. The biggest issue I have with Nzechukwu is that he’s a slow starter, and it really cost him in his last fight against Da Un Jung, where he just absorbed punishment without throwing anything back until getting finished. Even in his two wins over Danilo Marquez and Carlos Ulberg before that, he was losing both fights until he came back late.

Negumeranu is a fast starter and if he can come out hot and put pressure on Nzechukwu, he can potentially do enough damage to finish him. Give me Negumereanu for the upset as a +125 underdog, and for added value, we’ll take him to win by knockout at +500.

The Pick: Nicolae Negumereanu +125 at DraftKings

Alternative Pick: Nicolae Negumereanu by knockout +500 at DraftKings

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