Leave it to Talladega Superspeedway, of all places, to inject a dose of normalcy into these NASCAR Playoffs. The track known for unpredictability gave us the first race winner still eligible for the championship, and at +1200 Chase Elliott also carried the shortest NASCAR betting odds of any playoff race winner so far.

Hardly the craziness we expected, given the venue and the fact that three long-odds outsiders had won in the playoff thus far. For bettors, there were still value prospects with Michael McDowell finishing in the top five and Erik Jones, Todd Gilliland, and Chase Briscoe all cracking the top 10.

We could be in for a similar situation Sunday on the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road course, in a playoff elimination race where Elliott is the NASCAR odds favorite to win for the third time in four years.

Although we’ve seen crazy things happen at the “Roval”—most notably Jimmie Johnson and Martin Truex Jr. wrecking each other in the final turn going for the victory in 2018—Talladega offered the first sign that these playoffs might finally be returning to their normal rhythm of title contenders dueling at the front.

From a betting perspective, that would shift the focus from trying to hit big-money winners to hunting for value a little deeper in the field. Those surprise top-five and top-10 runs have been there all season and will certainly still be available over the final five weeks.

Bank of America Roval 400 Odds

Odds via DraftKings and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings Sportsbook review.

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Bank of America Roval 400 Betting Tips

The best road course driver of his generation, Elliott has been awesome at the Roval, with two wins in four starts and an average finish of fifth that’s best at the track among active drivers.

His last victory on a road course, though, was at Road America in early July of 2021, a full 15 months ago. Since then, Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, A.J. Allmendinger, Ross Chastain, and Daniel Suarez have all won road-course events, substantially deepening the pool of potential winners this week.

Larson has actually won three road course races, including at Watkins Glen in August, since Elliott’s triumph at Road America in 2021. And Reddick, the No. 2 odds choice for this week, won two road races in five weeks this summer—edging Elliott in Elkhardt Lake and then claiming a crash-marred Indianapolis GP.

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Ryan Blaney has never finished outside the top 10 at the Roval, a stretch that includes a victory in the layout’s inaugural race in 2018, which remains his only road course win.

Alex Bowman, who has three top-fives at the Roval, will miss his second straight race with concussion symptoms, which means he’ll be one of the four playoff drivers eliminated Sunday. His No. 48 car has been turned over to Noah Gragson, who carries odds of +5000 to win.

Bristol winner Chris Buescher finished third last year on the Roval, and carries +700 odds for another top-three this week. Darlington winner Erik Jones was third on the Charlotte road course in 2020, and is a +1500 wager on sports betting apps to crash the top three again.

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Bank of America Roval 400 Expert Picks and Tips

Kyle Larson to Win

Odds: +800 at BetMGM

We’re not going to get too caught up in an 18th-place run at Talladega, given how tightly so many cars were packed at the finish.

Larson otherwise has found his footing in the playoff after a very uneven first two-thirds of the season and was ninth or better in the three races leading up to Talladega. He’s also fantastic on road courses, and for all the attention on Elliott, it’s Larson who is the defending champion in this event. Grab Larson at +800 on betting sites this weekend.

A.J. Allmendinger Top 3

Odds: +350 at BetMGM

In two career starts on the Roval, ’Dinger has a seventh-place finish and a DNF due to an engine failure.

But both of his career victories are on road courses, and he’s been excellent in his three previous road starts this season at NASCAR’s highest level—ninth at Road America, seventh at Indy, and second behind Larson at the Glen. Larson and Allmendinger could certainly run 1-2 again this week.

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Erik Jones Top 5

Odds: +600 at BetMGM

Great value on a savvy driver who was third on the Roval in 2020. While that run was in a Joe Gibbs car, Jones’ Petty GMS machine has been quite competitive over the course of the playoff, with sixth-place runs at Texas and Talladega to go along with his Darlington victory.

The Roval is a hybrid layout that incorporates the fast, high-banked turns of the speedway course, which should suit Jones just fine.

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Bank of America Roval 400 Time, Date and TV

When: Sunday, 2 p.m. ET

Where: Charlotte (N.C.) Motor Speedway

TV: NBC