Bears-Packers Prop Bets, Odds and 6 Wagers to Back on TNF
The season begins with a tremendous matchup for fans of NFL betting with the Green Bay Packers visiting the NFC North champion Chicago Bears on Thursday night.
There are plenty of enticing bets to make on this 2019 NFL season opener. For those of you here for the picks, let’s jump right in:
Bears-Packers Best Bets
|Packers Moneyline|| +145|
|First TD: Jimmy Graham||+1700 |
|Under 46.5|| -106|
|Total TDs Under 4.5||-107|
|Chicago D/ST Touchdown||+410 |
All odds current as of publication but subject to change. Check out the latest Bears-Packers odds here.
PICK 1: Packers Moneyline
Chicago is favored by 3 at most sportsbooks for this game at Soldier Field. Of course, the betting guideline is that the home team is given three points. Thus, the oddsmakers believe the two teams enter the 2019 season as even.
So, getting the Packers to win at this price is too good to pass up. The Packers are 5-1 against the Bears in the past three seasons. The Bears may be in for some regression this season after their surprising 12-4 division-championship season in 2018. Also, expect a very determined Aaron Rodgers in this game as the Packers start the Matt LaFleur era.
PICK 2: Green Bay -2.5
We like Green Bay on the moneyline. So, we might as well double down and take this prop bet as well at +170. Backing Green Bay all the way to a three-point win sees extremely doable and profitable at this price. Sure, Green Bay’s win over Chicago last year – Week 1 in Green Bay – was by one point, at 24-23. But we feel good about taking this spread with a solid payoff in the offing.
PICK 3: First TD scorer: Jimmy Graham
We like longshots in player prop bets. Why not? Graham – a field-stretching tight end – may no longer be in his prime. But he can still be a dangerous player and he’s worthwhile bet at +1700. Graham had 55 catches but just had two touchdowns last season, his first in Green Bay. However, Graham did have 10 touchdowns in 2017 while with the Seattle Seahawks.
This is a guy with 71 career touchdowns. He knows how to get to the end zone. I can see Rodgers trying to set the tone and get a rhythm going with Grham early in this game. Again, at +1700, why not?
PICK 4: Under 46.5
The two games between these two teams totaled 47 in Week 1 and 41 in Week 15. I don’t see this game getting out of that point range. Remember, the way the preseason is now approached by coaches may affect the early parts of the regular season. Starters just don’t play much, if at all, in the preseason.
Both LaFleur and Chicago head coach Matt Nagy subscribe that to that approach this summer. So, the starters may be rusty on both sides. Defenses may have the early edge. Chicago’s defense, of course, is elite anyway. It allowed an NFL-low 283 points last season. Plus, the Rodgers-Lafleur combo may take a little time to get going. Don’t expect a scoring fest.
PICK 5: Total TDs under 4.5
This is a product of believing the game will be fairly low-scoring. Like our previous bet, the price is right for a bit of a longshot here. Rodgers can do enough to win this game and still only lead Green Bay to two or three touchdowns. Chicago’s offense was uneven and out of sorts in training camp.
Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky was not a finished product in 2018, his second NFL season, and there’s reason to believe he will start the 2019 season a little shaky. Green Bay’s defense is improved as it spent big in free agency and concentrated on the unit in the draft. So, we like this prop bet with a decent payoff.
PICK 6: Chicago D/ST Touchdown
I’m a big believer in this Chicago defense overall. I get the expectation regression in Chicago – their 2019 win total is 9 at most sportsbooks – but the worry shouldn’t be about the defense. It is still loaded. There are special players on this unit, beginning with defensive linemen Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks and safety Eddie Jackson. It is a dynamic, explosive group that can strike with a big play at any time.
So, +410 is too good of a price to pass up. Remember, Mack had an interception return for a touchdown against Green Bay in his first game as a Bear last September. The Bears led all NFL defenses last season with five touchdowns in 2018. It did not have any special teams touchdowns. But this defense is worth backing when it comes to getting into the end zone.