Before we look at the odds for a particular Premier League match, we like to create our own match prices and then compare them with the offering from the bookmakers.
Most of the time, they’re roughly similar although we certainly didn’t have Chelsea trading so short for Sunday’s lunchtime encounter at the AMEX Stadium even if BetVictor deserve credit for their typical best price 4/9 about the favourites.
We understand that many punters will blindly back Maurizio Sarri’s team to beat lesser opponents, while the London side come into the match after beating Manchester City 2-0 which suggests that they’re in excellent form for this trip to the south coast.
However, those of us with longer memories remember the Blues falling apart when leading 1-0 at Molineux and this came fairly hard on the heels of a 3-1 reverse at Wembley Stadium where Tottenham ran Chelsea ragged and left them looking ordinary.
Expect an Away Win
Therefore, the visitors are aiming to avoid a third successive defeat in the Premier League and they will surely be tested by a Brighton side who take no prisoners when it comes to playing matches in front of their own supporters.
One other thing to note is that Chelsea rely pretty heavily on Eden Hazard in terms of goal creation and scoring. He’s the only player for the club anywhere near the top of the scoring charts although the goals have dried up for the Belgian in recent weeks.
The Seagulls are 8/1 with William Hill to land a fifth home win of the season and they have only been turned over once at home all campaign, with Tottenham escaping with a 2-1 victory after a closely-matched encounter.
Ever since landing promotion to the top flight, Chris Hughton’s side have set about making their own stadium as fortress-like as possible and a victory could propel them into the top half of the table. For a club like Brighton, this is the stuff of dreams.
Could We See a Draw?
The draw is trading at 7/2 with Betfair and it looks a fair price considering that Chelsea are far from 100% on the road and have actually dropped points in six of their sixteen top-flight matches this season.
It’s all very well rousing yourselves for stern rearguard action against Manchester City but breaking down the Seagulls is a different kind of challenge and we’re really sweet on the home team with a 1.5 goal advantage.
This Asian Handicap bet is available at 5/7 with BetVictor and means that Brighton can afford to lose the game by a single goal in order for the bet to cop. However, we’re not sure they will be tasting defeat this weekend.
For starters, Albion have scored in every home game this season and will have been encouraged by the fact that Chelsea have shipped five in their previous two away games after starting the season with a tight defence on the road.
Betfair have 11/10 about both teams finding the net and we find that completely fair considering that Chelsea are averaging two goals per away game, although they’ll be made to work hard to maintain that kind of average on Sunday.