Cam Newton To Patriots: Odds, Best Prop Bets & Predictions
There was a GOAT-sized hole to fill on the New England Patriots’ depth chart. It was handled on Sunday. Former NFL MVP Cam Newton has agreed to a one-year, incentive-based deal with the Patriots. He’ll take the spot formerly held by six-time Super Bowl winner Tom Brady, who is now in Tampa Bay.
Just when people thought Bill Belichick and the Patriots’ evil empire were on the verge of ending, now the legendary coach gets another unique signal-caller to work with.
Is Cam the answer for New England — and are the Patriots the perfect spot for Newton? Many NFL futures bettors believe so. The Patriots accounted for a whopping 67% of all Super Bowl futures handle at DraftKings. Their odds to win the Lombardi Trophy dropped from +2000 to +1700. Their odds to win the AFC were sliced in half (+1200 to +600), and the AFC East odds were cut even more (+240 to +110).
Bookies.com breaks down the pairing of Newton and the Pats and picks a side for some of the top NFL betting prop picks on the market.
Is Cam As Good As People Think?
Newton was an unstoppable force in 2015, when he led the Panthers to a 15-1 record and their only Super Bowl appearance. He passed for 35 TDs and rushed for 10 more, tossed just 10 INTs and had a QB Rating of 99.4. He was a near-unanimous choice as NFL Most Valuable Player.
He hasn’t really come close to that level of production in any of his other eight pro seasons. In the annual ratings by analytics site Pro Football Focus, Newton was, indeed, a beast in that 2015 season. But in every other season of his career he’s finished below average among 32 starting QBs in overall play.
Since leading the Panthers to the Super Bowl, Newton’s record as a starter is just 23-23.
Belichick + Newton = Greatness?
Maybe numbers and computers can’t tell the whole story. There arguably isn’t a better mastermind in the game than Belichick, and he’s been a fan of Newton’s for a while.
"When you're talking about mobile quarterbacks, guys that are tough to handle, tackle, can throw, run, make good decisions — I mean, I would put Newton at the top the list," Belichick said prior to a Patriots-Panthers game in 2017. "Not saying that there aren't a lot of other good players that do that, but I would say, of all the guys we play or have played recently in the last couple of years, he's the hardest guy to deal with.”
Even if Newton hasn’t been his best lately, if anyone can help him back to the top of his game, it’s Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.
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Injury Concerns For Real?
Since 2017, Newton has had surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff, shoulder surgery and two foot injuries that led him to miss all but two games of 2019 and ultimately have surgery in December.
His age (31) might be a concern at other positions, but many QBs have played into their late 30s and with great effectiveness. Still, can the Pats rely on Newton to show up and lead an offense for 16 games?
While answer may not be yes, it isn’t no, either. Prior to 2019, Newton never missed more than two games in any season. He withstood a lot of hits in Carolina, but bounced back from most of them.
Cam Newton-Patriots Prop Bets
|To Win the Super Bowl||+1700|
Bet it at Unibet
|Make the Playoffs||-200 Yes/+163 No|
Bet it at Unibet
|AFC East Finish||1st +110, 2nd +200|
3rd +500, 4th +700
Bet it at 888sport
|Win AFC East||+110|
Bet it at DraftKings
|Win AFC Championship||+800|
Bet it at FanDuel
|Under 9.5 Wins||-125|
Bet it at BetMGM
To Win The Super Bowl
After the Newton signing, New England’s Super Bowl odds fell from +2000 and even +2500, the sixth-lowest of any team.
That’s too low. Newton might be a step up from the unproven Jarrett Stidham at QB, but the skill players around him are still mediocre at best, and the defense, which shut down everyone the first half of the year, got exposed in the second half against top teams and lost several key players from the unit.
This team has Belichick, but expecting the Pats this year to get past both the Ravens and Chiefs in the postseason, then win it all in Tampa on Feb. 7, is a lot to ask. Verdict: Pass on this at Unibet.
To Make the Playoffs
Before Newton, the Pats weren’t looking good to get to the postseason. The Bills appeared poised to overtake New England atop the AFC East, the overall talent level had taken a step back, and even if the Pats like Stidham, no off-season camps or in-person training surely hindered the pace of progress.
But now the Pats are right in the mix. They could overtake Buffalo in the East, which would guarantee another postseason in New England. If not, any team at 9-7 should be in the mix with the expanded playoff field for 2020 and beyond. Verdict: Lock in YES at Unibet.
AFC East Finish
The Patriots have won 16 of the last 17 AFC East titles, the lone exception coming in 2008. Odds here say expect another trophy in 2020.
But the Bills are ascending, their defense is just as good if not better, and their offense should be better as well. If it comes down to QB and Newton vs. Josh Allen, the Pats probably have the edge now. But that’s about it. I still believe the Bills are the team to beat in the East as Brady’s departure jolted the futures market. The Jets and the Dolphins appear a season or three from joining the ranks of division contender. Verdict: Bet Patriots To Finish 2nd at 888sport.
To Win AFC East
Newton could be unbelievable and could pick up where Brady left off in terms of success in New England. But even if he does, the Bills are poised to take the next step. New England’s overall strength of schedule is tougher. I like Buffalo to win the division this time, Cam or no Cam. Verdict: Pass on this at DraftKings.
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To Win AFC Championship
A tough schedule, the Bills ascension and the Chiefs and Ravens waiting in the AFC – you have to really believe in Newton and Sony Michel to back this number. There too many roadblocks at these odds. Verdict: Pass on this at FanDuel.
Under 9.5 Wins -125 (BetMGM)
The Patriots have the single-toughest strength of schedule in the NFL this coming season. Ten wins might be a stretch, but a 9-7 season with Newton and what should be a top-10 defense doesn’t sound far-fetched.
Backing a straight-up nine-win season likely isn’t worth a wager, but if you can find 8.5 at good odds, go Over. Same with Under on a 9.5. Verdict: Find a number with value at BetMGM.
Cam Newton Player Props
|To Win NFL MVP||+2500|
Bet it at BetMGM
|Comeback Player of the Year||+450|
Bet it at FOXBet
To Win NFL MVP
Newton immediately made a mark on the board with the signing, vaulting into the ninth spot. The appeal is certainly there, as he’ll be hungry to secure a huge deal after this one season, and he has Belichick to guide him in a new direction.
If Newton had more weapons around him, this might be enticing. If we knew N’Keal Harry was going to explode onto the scene after a so-so rookie campaign, maybe. But there are too many question marks — including how the no-nonsense Belichick and the unique individual of Newton mesh. Verdict: Pass on this at BetMGM.
RELATED: Check Out & Compare NFL MVP odds
Comeback Player of the Year
See the NFL MVP award — then temper expectations. Expecting Newton to return after playing just two games last year, learn an entirely new system and be the best player in the game is a stretch. This is a different story.
Newton doesn’t need otherworldly stats to win this award like players need for MVP consideration. Good stats would be nice, but wins, showing leadership and playing a near-full slate of games are, too. Many people are rooting for Cam to be a success story in 2020 — probably more so than comeback favorite Ben Roethlisberger. Verdict: Back this at FOXBet.