Does Super Bowl Odds Fall Make Patriots Good Value Bet Now?
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For the first time since winning the Super Bowl in February, the New England Patriots are not the favorites to win it all this season.
How do we process that situation?
Heading into Week 14 of the NFL season, the Baltimore Ravens have usurped the Pats out of the top spot. At 888sport Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are at +250, a wildly low number but one held by New England for most of the last calendar year.
I don't blame the Ravens for flocking now, these wins are the other teams Super Bowl— Boston Sports Info (@bostonsportsinf) November 4, 2019
Of the last 13 teams to beat the Patriots in the regular season, only 1 has won a playoff game (that was just a Wild Card round - Seattle) and 10 haven't even made the playoffs https://t.co/RxZFbuuWZY
New England rose from +250 to +400 in Super Bowl betting odds following Sunday night’s 28-22 loss at the Texans. Three NFC teams are also better than +1000: The New Orleans Saints (+500), San Francisco 49ers (+750) and Seattle Seahawks (+800). All five teams are 10-2 on the season.
Are we seeing the beginning of an end of dominance by the Patriots? Do we confidently sell on them at +400 with the Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs bearing down to knock them from their AFC throne? Or do these higher odds present an opportunity to get New England at an NFL betting price that finally provides some value?
Why To Buy New England Patriots
The Patriots have had some rough luck lately, but let’s keep it all in perspective. They’re still 10-2 on the season, tied for the best record in the NFL.
They’ve been at or around +250 in NFL futures betting for much of the season, a ridiculously low price for any NFL team. At +400, a number that is still quite low, they could be seen as a bargain.
Five of New England’s 10 wins were by at least 20 points. Only three teams in the Super Bowl era have won eight or more regular-season games by two TDs and they all reached the Super Bowl.
Let’s not forget, the Patriots still have the NFL’s No. 2-ranked defense. Only twice all season has an opponent managed more than 14 points against it. The team’s plus-18 turnover differential is seven better than any other team in the league.
And of course, we’re still talking Tom Brady and Bill Belichick here. Since 2001, the Patriots have missed the playoffs only two times (sporting 11-5 and 9-7 records those seasons). They’ve been to the Super Bowl four of the last five years with three Lombardi Trophies added in that span. Even when you think they’re out, they’re not out. They’re never out of it.
Why To Sell New England Patriots
The Patriots may be 10-2, but they’re only 2-2 against teams that would be in the playoffs if they started today – the wins were a 17-16 squeaker over the Bills and a 13-9 slugfest over the Cowboys. They were handled by the Ravens and just lost to the Texans. This week they get the Chiefs.
While the defense may still be a handful for most opponents, the offense has taken a big step back lately. New England averaged a big 31.3 ppg the opening eight weeks, but have managed only 18 ppg the last four weeks. Brady has looked inconsistent and the run game has been held to under 80 yards in four of the past six games.
And just like that the time has arrived. The New England Patriots are no longer the best football team in the NFL and Tom Brady is looking average at best.— Brian Chojnacki (@BroadcastingBri) December 2, 2019
The Patriots have been an unstoppable force at Foxborough in the playoffs, but away from home they’ve been very beatable. They’re just 1-2 on the road in the postseason since 2007. If the Ravens can secure homefield advantage, that’s a big Pats deterrent.
If defense wins championships, the Patriots will be a contender to the end. Someone will have to not only contain Brady but score points on that defense and many teams have tried and failed come playoff time.
But Brady and the offense have looked tired, the defense isn’t as dominant now as it was in the first half of the season and the Ravens and Chiefs are much more experienced compared to last season. Baltimore pounded New England 37-20 earlier this year.
Even at the slightly better-value price of +400, there are simply too many legitimate contenders at better odds to back New England here. A true “buy low” time will come next week if the Patriots struggle at home against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. If you feel Brady has one more great run in him, that will be the time to jump on board.