Heisman Watch Betting Odds & How Week 8 Could Impact Them
South Carolina’s 20-17 overtime win at Georgia was the biggest upset of the season so far and essentially eliminated one of the preseason favorites from the Heisman Trophy race. That’s curtains for the Bulldogs quarterback, whose odds moved to +8000 at DraftKings after a three-interception day against the Gamecocks
Fromm, Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence were the consensus top three betting favorites entering Week 1. Lawrence is also an afterthought now at +8000, while Tagovailoa is the clear-cut favorite at +110.
LSU quarterback Joe Burrow is second at +250 and started the season with odds around +2500. Keep that in mind while scrolling through the contenders next year. It all looks so obvious on paper in August, but these are college kids on teams with a ton of annual roster turnover. There’s a lot of value to be had with the second and third-tier contenders.
Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor (+900) and Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields (+1000) play for undefeated teams and pass the stats test. Could the Heisman go to a Big Ten player for the first time since Troy Smith won it in 2006?
A long shot? So was South Carolina as a 24.5-point underdog. Ask Fromm and the Bulldogs how that worked out.
Here’s how the candidates stand, and how this week’s games could impact their college football betting odds of claiming the award.
Latest Heisman Odds
|Joe Burrow||+250||+300||↑||@Miss. St.|
|Jalen Hurts||+400||+450||↑||W. Virginia|
QB Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama
Current odds: +110
Up next: Tennessee
Expected betting impact: Tagovailoa threw his first interception of the season Saturday at Texas A&M. He also broke the Crimson Tide record for career touchdown passes in the first quarter and sits at 81 all-time.
Tennessee and Arkansas probably won’t challenge him over the next two weeks, and he should remain a heavy favorite in the meantime. The Nov. 9 showdown with LSU can’t get here fast enough. The Crimson Tide and Tigers have the two best offenses in the nation behind Tagovailoa and Burrow, and they’ll go head-to-head in a game that could decide both the SEC West and Heisman Trophy winner.
QB Joe Burrow, LSU
Current odds: +250
Up next: Mississippi St.
Expected betting impact: The Bulldogs’ defense looks pretty legit, but Burrow just put up 293 yards and three touchdowns against the best defense in the SEC. He’s the clear-cut second favorite behind Tagovailoa, playing for a team getting a ton of respect nationally after a 14-point win over Florida.
Now everyone knows LSU is for real and Burrow’s odds reflect that at +250. Those shouldn’t change much after Saturday, but Burrow gets another chance to prove it against a tough Auburn defense Oct. 26. If he gets past the Tigers unscathed – a big if, mind you - those odds could be a lot closer to Tagovailoa’s entering the Alabama game.
QB Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma
Current odds: +400
Up next: West Virginia
Expected betting impact: It’s the perfect time to hop on the Hurts train. The Sooners are still undefeated after Saturday’s win over Texas. Hurts is playing well, but not doing enough statistically to match Burrow or Tagovailoa yet. He’s right in that sweet spot where there’s still a lot of value on his very realistic Heisman chances. He also has the easiest remaining schedule of the three favorites by a mile.
Question is, can he measure up against the best defenses in conference? His next five games are against the top five defenses in the Big 12, not including the Sooners. That’s sort of like touting the top five offenses in the Big Ten, though. Won’t knock anyone’s socks off.
RB Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin
Current odds: +900
Up next: Illinois
Expected betting impact: Taylor failed to reach the 100-yard mark Saturday for the first time this season. Good news is Wisconsin destroyed Michigan State, 38-0, and continues to gain steam as a College Football Playoff contender with four shutouts through six games.
That defense should have the Badgers in the hunt, keeping Taylor relevant in the Heisman race as a result. He’ll have to go off in a big game and this week’s road trip to Illinois won’t quite cut it. Doing it Oct. 26 at Ohio State against a Buckeyes defense giving up 82 rushing yards per game would be a different story. It’s not an easy road, but Taylor isn’t a bad option as far as 9-1 bets go.
QB Justin Fields, Ohio State
Current odds: +1000
Up next: at Northwestern
Expected betting impact: Fields heads into a Friday night game in Evanston, Ill. coming off a bye week. His odds continue to drop because of strong showings from the frontrunners, but it’s not like he’s playing himself out of the race.
We expect Fields to shine against an average Northwestern defense ahead of the Oct. 26 Wisconsin game. Then he’ll have the chance to prove himself against a nasty Badgers defense allowing just 173.7 yards per game. Assuming both teams remain unbeaten, that’ll be the game that eliminates either Fields or Taylor from Heisman contention.