Mark Strotman for Bookies.com

By Mark Strotman | | 3 mins

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Incredible NBA Home Betting Trend To Ride Throughout Playoffs

Incredible NBA Home Betting Trend To Ride Throughout Playoffs
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The top five teams in the NBA Eastern Conference — the Bucks, Raptors, Celtics, Heat and 76ers — have been utterly dominant at home this season. They’re a combined 126-24, an .840 win percentage (or a 69-win pace over an 82-game season). And while that is incredible, we’re here to talk NBA betting, not simply home wins.

Those five teams are covering at an incredible rate. In fact, if you check they rank 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 6th in the NBA in home cover percentage as of March 1:

TeamATS recordNBA rank
Heat19-9-11st
Celtics18-10-12nd
76ers18-10-23rd
Bucks18-125th
Raptors19-136th

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That’s a combined ATS record of 92-54-4, a cover percentage of an astounding 63.0%. All five teams are profiting this season at home and showing no signs of slowing down. That’s important for bettors with six weeks left in the regular season, but it may be even more important come playoff time. Home-court advantage matters plenty in the postseason — it’s important to get Games 5 and 7 at home — and the best teams tend to cover more when it comes around.


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NBA Eastern Conference Top 5 Seeds ATS At Home 2010-2019

We analyzed the same five top seeds in the Eastern Conference over the last 10 seasons to see how their cover percentage in the regular season compared to the playoffs. In seven of those seasons, teams covered at a higher rate in the playoffs than they did in the regular season.

SeasonRegularPlayoff
2018-1951.7%59.3%
2017-1853.5%62.8%
2016-1748.0%46.8%
2015-1654.9%61.1%
2014-1549.0%41.9%
2013-1448.7%37.5%
2012-1347.5%59.4%
2011-1251.5%62.8%
2010-1147.0 %52.9%
2009-1047.0%57.50%

These five teams have been historically good at home this season. Of course, when it comes playoff time, they won’t get to beat up on the bottom feeders of the league. Here’s how they’ve fared against the other seven expected playoff teams at home:

  • Bucks: 5-3
  • Raptors: 6-5
  • Celtics: 6-2
  • Heat: 3-4
  • 76ers: 6-2

Four of the five have been profitable against the expected Eastern Conference playoff teams at a clip of 61.9%. These home teams have been dominant, and history tells us they’ll only get better once the postseason begins. It’s a smart bet the rest of the way to bet these teams playing in their own arenas. Here’s where each of the five teams stand right now:

Bucks

It’s no surprise that the NBA’s best team is also dominant at home. While they have the worst cover percentage of these teams, we’ll chalk that up to oddsmakers setting high point spreads in those contests. But when they’re favored by 10 or fewer points? They’re 9-1 ATS, and those are the kinds of lines they’ll see in the postseason. That bodes well.

Raptors

No Kawhi Leonard, no problem. The Raptors have dealt with injuries to just about every one of their core pieces, and yet their home covers haven’t been affected. They stormed out of the gate, covering eight of their first nine home games. An injury-filled five-week stretch saw them go just 4-8 ATS at home, but they’ve righted the ship to go 7-3 since.

Celtics

The post-Kyrie era in Boston has been very, very good. Beginning with a Jan. 20 win over the Lakers at home, they are 7-1 ATS at home, including wins (and covers) over the Lakers, Clippers, 76ers and Rockets. They’ve also covered at home against the Bucks and Raptors.

Heat

No team in the NBA has a better home cover percentage than the Heat. In fact, their 19-9-1 mark (67.9%) is the best home cover percentage by any team since the 2012 San Antonio Spurs (29-10-1). Miami is an ugly 13-18 SU on the road, but has home covers against the Rockets, Lakers, Raptors and 76ers.

76ers

They are an absolute anomaly. They’re an abysmal 7-21-2 ATS on the road, the NBA’s worst mark by a long shot, but at home they’re world-beaters. Not only are they 18-10-2 ATS, they have home covers over all of the other top five teams in the East. Their home net rating trails only the Bucks, and they’re the NBA’s most efficient home defense. And they’re really heating up. They began the season 7-7-1 at home. Over the last two months? They’re 11-3-1.

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