|Bet Game 6 Under 212 Points||-109||View All Odds|
|Bet Steph Curry over 33.5 points in Game 6||+100||View All Odds|
|Bet Kawhi Leonard Under 31.5 Points in Game 6||-121||View All Odds|
Game 6 NBA Finals 2019 Betting Analysis: The Warriors are still on life support and get one last game at Oracle. Can you say, energy? This crowd will be nuts in Game 6, and Curry will feed off the energy for a 35+ points.
Kerr’s Warriors are 6-1 ATS in Game 6s. This is mostly due to more intense defensive efforts, and we have seen this series slowdown on points.
The Warriors will not let Kawhi Leonard go off and force the rest of the pack to beat them.
2019 NBA Finals Betting Guide
Series Odds: Warriors +230, Raptors -286
This series will come down to a very simple stat. The Raptors will need to make their open shots. If you have watched these playoffs closely, the Raptors have played some very efficient offensive basketball, getting open shot after open shot.
Credit to Nick Nurse, who is trying to win a title in his first season as head coach. Notice how many open shots the Raptors have got throughout the series vs. the Bucks. They made those shots consistently and continuously put pressure on the Bucks by driving to the paint and kicking out.
It worked marvelously. And note this was against a great Bucks defense. The Warriors will play strong defense, but they are not close to the Bucks defense this year.
I expect the Warriors to do this series is something similar to their strategy vs. the Blazers and Damian Lillard. Look for Steve Kerr’s defense to trap Leonard a couple feet behind the 3-point line and force an early pass, while having Draymond Green “spy” in the paint.
This was a great strategy vs the Blazers that took their best player out of the game. Since it is likely the Warriors do this, I do not see Leonard getting great open shots or easy drives to the basket this series. Pascal Siakam will have to be great this series for Toronto to have a chance.
Raptors Have Early Advantage in Series
The Raptors bench will have the advantage and will need to be the reason they are competitive in this series. If they want any chance to get this series deep, the bench that has been playing outstanding and led by Fred VanVleet will need to play their best ball. This is the one clear advantage the Raptors have in this series.
I see Game 1 going to the Raptors in a tight game. When both teams are on 4+ days rest, the home team is 64% ATS. It is also an advantage that the Raptors played Game 6 vs. the Bucks at home. Easy travel schedule here for the Raptors. Sleeping in their own bed for five straight nights is not a bad situation to be in heading into the NBA Finals.
However, the Raptors have not been here before. If they get that Game 1 behind an insanely electric crowd, look for them to get a little too comfy. The Warriors will steal Game 2 in Toronto, if you even want to call it a steal, as the Warriors are the better team here.
Warriors Should take Control of Series in Oakland
I cannot see the Raptors having the emotional strength to go into Oakland and win a game this series, although they did play the Warriors great in the regular season, beating them twice. The NBA Finals are whole different animal though, so I expect the Warriors to take Games 3 and 4, putting a ton of pressure on Toronto.
During the regular season, the Raptors won the first game in Toronto by three in double overtime, with Leonard dropping 37 and Durant 51 with Curry out. In the second game in Oakland, the Raptors defense shut down the Warriors and won by 20 points, with Curry finishing with 10 points.
Perhaps Nick Nurse will take a page out of that book to apply to this series. The Warriors had 19 turnovers in this game. The Raptors are a team that forces you to make mistakes. The Warriors will need to be careful with the ball.
Under pressure in Game 5 of these NBA Finals, I see the Raptors with a statement game to keep them alive under a brilliant performance led by Leonard.
However, this series will end in Oakland and the Warriors will raise up the trophy for the third straight year in front of their home Oakland crowd for the final time before next year’s move to San Francisco.